The 2024 Six Nations (Men’s) ended with Ireland just missing out on a 2nd successive Grand Slam due to a last minute drop goal. Italy recorded their best ever 6 Nations and left Wales with the wooden spoon for the 2nd time ever. France, England and Scotland recorded plusses and minuses during their campaigns and all 3 nations will be seeking to go one better in 2025.
The Final Table in 2024
2024 was Ireland’s 6th title in the 6 Nations era, matching France and Wales and one behind England’s 7 titles. Wales were whitewashed for the 2nd time ever. Italy may have finished 5th but 2024 was their first ever 6 Nations campaign where they avoided a losing season.
All Time 6 Nations Table
Ireland continue to lead the all time table after 25 seasons and 125 games. England continue to lead in number of titles won and points and tries scored.
The Points column here excludes Bonus Points and is calculated as 4 points for a win, 2 for a draw and 0 for a loss. The For, Against, Tries & Boot (points from) columns are all averages per game.
This table is the order I will review each nation’s 2024 performance by comparing it with how they performed in the previous 24 seasons between 2000 & 2023.
Ireland
It took an injury time drop goal by England’s Marcus Smith to stop Ireland from becoming the first nation to record back to back Grand Slams in the 6 Nations era but that didn’t stop Ireland from winning their 6th title by a comfortable margin.
Letting the Grand Slam slip away may have been disappointing for Ireland but their overall performance has been very consistent in the last 3 seasons with average scorelines of 34-13, 30-14 and 29-12. They continue to demonstrate the adage that defence wins championships. Ireland have now had 11 seasons in a row with top half placings and they fully deserve their status as the most successful team in 6 Nations history in terms of wins and winning seasons.
If I were an Irish fan though, I would still be upset with their failure to get past New Zealand in the World Cup quarter final last year. Ireland’s World Cup record is shocking by any standard. If I were Andy Farrell, I would be placing greater emphasis on consistently beating the southern hemisphere sides over the next three years, even if that means placing less emphasis on the 6 Nations. History shows Ireland have played the 4 Rugby Championship nations in World Cups 13 times with only 3 victories which were all in the pool stages. The contrast with England (& France) here is very notable as I show in the next section.
They will have a chance to make a start on this in the summer with two matches in South Africa.
England
England had 2nd place snatched from them by a last minute penalty in Lille from Thomas Ramos but they still ended up with a winning season for the first time since 2020. A curious feature of 2024 was that England lost all 5 first halves by an average of 5 points but won 4 of 5 second halves by 4 points. That suggests an ability to sort out issues at half time and/or a stronger bench than their opponents.
Despite the more positive vibes from the last two matches, England are still performing on average in line with the last 3 seasons. The challenge for them going forward has to be better defence to begin with as 2024 was their 2nd worst ever defensive campaign. I hope their much publicised shift to a blitz defence bears fruit soon and I would set a target of conceding an average of less than 20 points per game in 2025. Given they conceded 13 tries in 2024, that more or less translates to conceding less than 10 tries in 2025.
England’s World Cup history against the 4 Rugby Championship nations is summarised below as the standard Ireland need to be aiming for. There have been 22 such matches (12 knock outs and 10 pool stages) of which England have won 11 (6 knockouts and 5 pool stages). 5 of those wins have come against Argentina so the record against the big 3 is 6 wins out of 17. However, in the 6 Nations era, the record is 5 wins and 5 losses.
France
Despite a notable slip backwards in both attack and defence and drawing at home with Italy, France still managed a second place finish. 2024 was their 5th consecutive winning season which was achieved without their star player Antoine Dupont who has prioritised Sevens rugby ahead of the Paris Olympics this year.
Like England, France recorded their second worst ever defensive campaign conceding 24 points on average per game and 13 tries in total. Their try scoring fell well below the standards set in the last 4 years but I think their priority should be the same as England’s which is to concede on average less than 20 points per game in 2025. Personally, I think their attack will reassert themselves with the return of Dupont next year.
Again to give an idea of a standard for Ireland to compare themselves against, here is France’s record against the 4 Rugby Championship sides. Curiously, France have mostly avoided such nations in the pool stages and have only played 4 such matches with 2 wins. They match England with 12 such matches in the knockout phases but with only 4 wins. That one point defeat in the 2023 quarter final must still rankle with France especially given they had demolished New Zealand in the pool match.
Wales
Wales matched their average performance of 2023 and went one step poorer with their second ever wooden spoon and whitewash.
When I look back to the all time table, one can’t but conclude that Wales have probably been the luckiest side in terms of titles won. 
I suspect this has blinded Wales to the weakness of their club sides and perhaps that is a better indication of the relative strengths of the national teams? Bear in mind England normally field 12 teams and France 14 teams in the two competitions (Champions Cup & Challenge Cup) so in this table we should be comparing Wales 4 teams with Ireland’s 4 teams and Scotland’s 2 teams.
Scotland
Scotland finally won in Cardiff for the first time since 2002 but the 27-26 victory set the pattern for the campaign. Scotland led in 4 of their 5 matches at half time but lost 4 of their 5 second halves to end up in 4th overall with a losing season. They were the opposite of England in this regard.
In 2022 I said, “I noted last year that teams have been able to win titles with a defence that concedes 15 points a game on average so the challenge is for them to return to those standards (“9 points fewer” should be the mantra) if they want to continue to have winning seasons, top half finishes and even titles.” They conceded 4 points fewer in 2023 but went backward in 2024 in both defence and attack.
Quite where Scotland go next I am not sure.
Italy
Two wins and a draw made 2024 Italy’s most successful 6 Nations in terms of match outcomes. A lack of bonus points meant they ended in 5th but Italy are justified in celebrating the progress they have made. But for a ball falling over in France as Garbisi readied to kick the match winning penalty injury time, Italy could have had their first ever winning season.
Italy recorded their best ever average score margin of 18.4 – 25.2 which was marginally better than their previous high point of 15.0 – 22.2 in 2013. The improvement in defence over the last 2 years is notable but I think the main challenge for Italy going forward is to improve their attack especially their try count. I would set a target in 2025 of 13 or more tries which would be a new record for Italy beating their previous best of 12 in 2018.
In the last 2 years, I’ve noted Italy’s progress in the U20 6 Nations championship. Other commentators have finally cottoned onto this and Italy’s 4th place in 2024 is unsurprising given what happened in 2022 and 2023. Bringing their younger talent through to turn Italy into a regular competitive nation in the 6 Nations will be key.
Looking ahead
The 6 Nations has been a 3 tier competition over the last 3 seasons based on the placings. Ireland & France lead the pack followed by England & Scotland with Italy & Wales bringing up the rear. Whilst all nations harbour ambitions to improve, I think the most probable scenario is that this will remain the order of precedence for 2025.
A final point worth noting is that 9 of the 15 matches in 2024 saw the loser get a losing bonus point. This is the highest on record since bonus points were introduced in 2017 beating the previous high of 8 in 2021. If one also takes into account the 13-13 draw between France and Italy, then 2/3 of the matches were close affairs suggesting the tournament is becoming more competitive.
My other blogs on 6 Nations and Rugby World Cup
- My 6 Nations reviews for 2021, 2022, 2023
- Should there be promotion & relegation in the 6 Nations?
- My prediction model for the 2019 Rugby World Cup
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