Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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COVID19 Deaths #2 – Are Public Health England’s Figures Misleading?

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During the first wave of the COVID19 epidemic, the daily number of deaths published by Public Health England (PHE) has been the main headline in the news.  On 17th July, Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health, called for a review of this time series after a blog published by Yoon Loke & Carl Heneghan of Oxford University questioned whether definition used by this time series was appropriate.  I myself had noticed a change in the PHEr time series in my tracker of COVID19 deaths in England but I hadn’t understood why this might have been the case.  After looking at the data again in more detail, I have concluded that this time series is overestimating the number of deaths by 42 +/- 13 per day since the 23rd May and it needs to be revised otherwise it will create confusion should a second wave come.

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COVID19 Deaths #2H – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 26th June

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 30th June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2G – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 19th June

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 23rd June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2F – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 12th June

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 16th June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2E – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 5th June

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 9th June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2D – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 29th May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 2nd June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2C – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 15th May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 19th May.

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COVID19 Deaths #2B – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 8th May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 12th May.

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COVID19 Deaths #2A – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 1st May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I explore how the PHE series can be used to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England every Tuesday.

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COVID19 Cases #2 – Is the UK an outlier internationally?

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An unfortunate side effect of COVID19 has been ugly political debates over the best way to tackle the pandemic.  Often politicians will claim because country X does this, the UK should be doing it as well.  I decided it was time to do a proper comparison of the UK with other countries to see what extent the UK is an outlier and whether there are some countries we should be using as templates.

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