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COVID19 Cases #1 – Latest Data and Trends for England

September 27, 2020 By Nigel

Last updated on 27th September 2020

The latest data for COVID19 (Coronavirus) cases in England as of Saturday 26th September 2020 shows the number of people testing positive for COVID19 is up 60% from a week ago but this masks extreme regional disparities that make the national trend meaningless. The North is in the grip of a second wave unlike the South which is not. Unless recent trends in the North abate, the scenario of 50k positive tests per day by the end of October recently postulated by the Chief Scientific Officer remains feasible.

Pay Gap Case Study #4 – What is the gender pay gap at Novartis UK?

September 15, 2020 By Nigel

Welcome to my next case study where I look at the 2019 pay gap figures of Novartis UK. They caught my eye when they posted on LinkedIn the following statement.

“… our 2019 gender pay report which highlights that on average, women earn more than men across all of our UK sites and divisions…“

When I looked at the two legal entities that were required to report gender pay gaps, I saw that both reported pay gaps favouring men instead. Something odd is going here and it’s a perfect case study to show why anyone who analyses pay gaps needs to pay more attention to a Bletchley Park codebreaker from world war 2 who introduced the world to Simpson’s Paradox.

Pay Gaps #17 – How to Spot an Incorrect Median Gender Pay Gap

August 11, 2020 By Nigel

I have a spotted an incorrect median gender pay gap published by a well known name in a certain industry. They shall remain nameless for now since I am trying to get them to accept their error and publish a new gender pay gap report on their website. I know they have made an error because their published data violates the laws of mathematics as I will explain in this blog. All it takes to spot such an error is a simple calculation you can do in your head and an understanding what the median measures.

Pay Gaps #16 – Eliminate your gender pay gap by playing Blackjack!

August 2, 2020 By Nigel

Imagine where you work, the median women earns 33% less than the median man where you work. Although your workplace is gender balanced with 50:50 men:women, the pay gap exists because 1 in 4 of managers and 3 in 4 of the lowest paid admin staff are women. How long will it take for the pay gap to disappear assuming that all future recruitment at all levels have 50:50 candidate pools with men and women equally likely to be appointed to the role?

Up to 25 years i.e. a generation

Pay Gap Trends #3 – Did the UK gender pay gap narrow in 2019?

June 14, 2020 By Nigel

On 24th March 2020, the UK government suspended enforcement of the gender pay gap reporting deadline of 5th April. As of today, just over 50% of employers have reported their 2019 gender pay gap figures. Despite this shortfall, I have used statistical imputation methods to calculate that the median gender pay gap narrowed in 2019 from 9.6 pence in the pound to 9.0-9.2 pence in the pound.

Pay Gap Trends #2 – My analysis of 7 sectors for Practical Law magazine

June 3, 2020 By Nigel

In April, I was asked to analyse the trends in UK gender pay gaps over the 3 years of mandatory reporting from 2017 to 2019 for Practical Law. They were interested in 7 customised sectors and the links to these can be found in this post.

Pay Gaps #15 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2019?

June 2, 2020 By Nigel

This post was updated on 3rd June 2020 with the latest data

Update 5/4/20 – On 24th March, the government suspended enforcement of the deadline for reporting 2019 gender pay gaps due to the coronavirus outbreak. As of now, Only 40% of employers have reported their 2019 data. Employers are still required to report 2019 data but will not be punished for being late in doing so.

The government requires all organisations employing 250 or more employees to submit gender pay gap data. All data is available to the public and can be found on the government’s gender pay gap website. I have downloaded this data and created a spreadsheet tool to present the data in a more user-friendly and visual format.

Pay Gap Tools #1 – Where can I find a gender pay gap calculator?

June 1, 2020 By Nigel

** Update 22nd August 2020 ***

I am no longer offering a free spreadsheet tool.

Coronavirus #1 – Useful Data and Links

May 14, 2020 By Nigel

Updated on 14th May 2020. New and modified links are italicised.

The Coronavirus Pandemic is a worldwide challenge many of us will have not experienced before. It is natural to want to seek information on the risks and in our world today, it has never been easier to find data, analyses and opinions. Unfortunately, a lot of what you will read out there is either unhelpful or actively misleading. As an independent statistician with 30 years experience of explaining statistics to non-statisticians, my contribution to this crisis will be to try and sort the good from the bad hence this post. [Read more…] about Coronavirus #1 – Useful Data and Links

Coronavirus #2 – What sample size does Boris need to lift all restrictions?

April 2, 2020 By Nigel

April Fools day 2020 saw the hive mind of social media asking what the sample size should be to measure the extent of the Coronavirus in the UK. I could see that many people responding were reaching for standard methodologies which are usually are based on specifying a desired confidence interval. In doing so, they were overlooking a much more effective and relevant alternative based on the methodology of Acceptance Sampling, first developed by the US Military in World War 2.