Over the last 6 weeks I have been making many posts about what is happening and what will happen in 2017. I thought it would be helpful to have one post which brings everything together in one place.
My official 2017 election forecast summarises what I expect the results to be on June 8th 2017. This post also includes a link to a spreadsheet containing my seat by seat forecasts which can be found at the bottom of that post. (EDIT: Weds 7th June @1030AM. If you downloaded the spreadsheet before 1030 on Weds 7th June, please visit the link and download the spreadsheet again. The link explains why)
To accompany my forecast, I have created 4 youtube video clips where I dig into the details of how I arrived at that forecast.
- Part 1 (22 mins) looks at what the polls are saying and how pollsters have split themselves into 2 distinct groups. The question is which one to believe?
- Part 2 (15 mins) examines whether 2017 will be a realignment election like what happened in Scotland in 2015 or a politics as usual like England & Wales in 2015.
- Part 3 (37 mins) explains how I made my forecast for each seat and goes into some depth. This is more technical but I explain how I accounted for the Brexit factor in this election.
- Part 4 (20 mins) shows my forecast, where the parties will gain and lose and places the 2017 election in historical context.
If you prefer to read the slides in my youtube series rather than listen to me (it’s not boring, honest!) then you can download them with this link. I have corrected a couple of errors on the last slide of part 4 and a couple of typos elsewhere.
To arrive at my forecast, I analysed a lot of data and formed many conclusions which shaped my thinking. The following posts explain the key points.
- My Opinion Poll Tracker examines what the latest opinion polls are saying
- We all know how accurate the polls were in 2015 so I analysed how accurate polls have been since 1950 and the answer is not pretty!
- In the last 2 weeks, the polls became very volatile and created a lot of confusion. I decided to help clear up the confusion in “5 steps to making sense of the polls”. The Guardian refer to this post 21 minutes into this podcast and I am quite amused by their description of me! My thanks also to John Rentoul of the Independent for picking up on one of my charts in his article about the polls.
Finally on election night itself, I will be staying up as much as I can and I will publish my thoughts as the results come in. I have created a post which will be refreshed throughout the night so please bookmark this link to be ready for election night.