{"id":111,"date":"2017-02-19T16:18:10","date_gmt":"2017-02-19T16:18:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=111"},"modified":"2019-02-09T10:54:57","modified_gmt":"2019-02-09T10:54:57","slug":"by-election-forecast-2-stoke-on-trent-central-staffordshire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/by-election-forecast-2-stoke-on-trent-central-staffordshire\/","title":{"rendered":"By-Election Forecast #2 – Stoke-on-Trent Central, Staffordshire"},"content":{"rendered":"

Originally posted on 19th February 2017.\u00a0 I then added an updated forecast on 22nd February which can be seen at the bottom of this post.<\/em><\/p>\n

If UKIP want to supplant Labour in the North England, they must win Stoke-on-Trent Central to kickstart this trend and the odds are 2 to 1 that they will win.\u00a0 That is my forecast after running my by-election model on Stoke-on-Trent Central.\u00a0 For more details about the methodology, please read my description of how I forecast by-elections in the Brexit era<\/a>.<\/p>\n

My model uses both the breakdown of the 2015 General Election results when Labour held the seat with a 16% majority on a 50% turnout (the 2nd<\/sup> lowest turnout in the whole of the UK in 2015) and the 2016 EU referendum result where I estimate that Leave won with 71% of the vote on a 60% turnout.\u00a0 This makes this seat the 17th<\/sup> most Leave seat in the UK and it is worth noting that its two neighbours were #22 (Stoke South) & #3 (Stoke North). \u00a0In % terms, the increase in number of voters in 2016 was the 22nd<\/sup> highest in the UK and has created a substantial Non-GE segment of 17% of 2016 voters that have the potential to influence the by-election.\u00a0 Whether these non-voters from 2015 will vote in the by-election is one of the big uncertainties and it will be fascinating to see if they do.<\/p>\n

My voter segmentation based on the Ashcroft \u201cexit poll\u201d<\/em> show Brexiteers account for 59% of all voters in 2016.\u00a0 Unlike other Labour seats, this seat appears to be one of the few where Labour Leavers outnumber Labour Remainers. \u00a0This exacerbates the debate within Labour as to whether to oppose or support Brexit and how to address the cultural divide that has been exposed within the party.\u00a0 I think the list of Top 30 Remain and Top 30 Leave seats shown below encapsulates Labour\u2019s dilemma as well as anything.\u00a0 Note that the shaded figures represent my estimates using my Leave Vote Share model <\/a>and the unshaded figures are actual results.<\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \"\"<\/p>\n

As I have stated before, the following voter dynamics are already apparent from the 3 contested by-elections we have had since the referendum.<\/p>\n

Witney & Richmond Park & Sleaford and North Hykeham<\/strong><\/p>\n