The most notable point about chart G1 has been the steady drift downwards for the Labour party following their poll spurt in the immediate aftermath of the 2017 General Election.\u00a0 The Conservatives on the other hand seem to be fluctuating around 40%.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/PollTracker-G1-2018-10-300x219.png\"){kind=tracking}
<\/p>\n
The net effect is that both Labour and Conservatives have lost 3 points since the last election with voters switching to all of the minor parties..<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/PollTracker-G2-2018-10-300x150.png\"){kind=tracking}
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Poll Movements Over Last 12 Months<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n This is a new section for my poll tracker where I take a closer look at trends over the last 12 months.\u00a0 My goal is to discern any patterns that could be a portent of the future.<\/p>\n Chart G4 shows daily movements and by eye, I can see 5 distinct periods labelled A, B, C, D & E.\u00a0 The exact dates of these periods are shown in table G6 later.\u00a0 Chart G5 has also been divided into the same 5 periods and this chart shows the Conservative lead over Labour.\u00a0 Briefly, the 5 periods can summarised as follows:-<\/p>\n For the Conservatives, the last 12 months is probably as good as they could have expected given the dominance of the Brexit negotiations in the news.\u00a0 All of the smaller parties have been able to recover some voters since the general election but fundamentally the polls are not greatly changing given all the political events going on.\u00a0 I would say Labour should be the most concerned as they do now appear to be on a downward drift with the Lib Dems, Greens and Others (mostly Nationalists) picking up the defectors.\u00a0 Thus we could see the Conservative lead over Labour slowly widen.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n I will update this section in a later post.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n I will update this section in a later post.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Following the 2017 general election, I analysed why my forecast was in error by such a large margin<\/a>.\u00a0 I was able to show that the key error was that the opinion polls were not uniform in their underestimate of the Labour vote<\/a>.\u00a0 In the South and Scotland, the polls were broadly in line with the final results and my forecast was not that far out.\u00a0 However, in the North & Midlands the error was considerable which had a dramatic effect on my forecast.<\/p>\n Given this error, it will be a while before I decide to update this section.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n I have no update to give this month.\u00a0 If you are interested in the question of whether there was a “Youthquake” in the 2017 General Election and what the effect of allowing 16 & 17 year olds to vote, then please read my Opinion Poll Tracker of March 2018<\/a>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n More Posts about Opinion Polls<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Since the 2017 General Election when my forecast was undermined by yet another polling failure, I have written a number of posts about the long term accuracy of opinion polls and these are listed below:-<\/p>\n To see my previous Opinion Poll Trackers, please click the relevant month below.<\/p>\n Here is a long overdue update of my UK opinion poll tracker and in this post, I going to take a closer look at the key trends over the last 12 months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1400,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[43,58,33],"class_list":{"0":"post-1399","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-polling","8":"tag-general-election-2017","9":"tag-opinion-poll-tracker","10":"tag-opinion-polls","11":"entry","12":"override"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1399"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1399\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1408,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1399\/revisions\/1408"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1400"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/PollTracker-G4-2018-10-300x163.png\"){kind=tracking}
<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/PollTracker-G6-2018-10-300x178.png\"){kind=tracking}
Overall they have basically arrested the slide in their vote that they saw in the 6 months after GE17.\u00a0 Labour has been on a steady downward drift with notable fallbacks in periods B & E which I associate with the anti-semitism controversies that arose at those points in time.\u00a0 For the Conservatives, the Chequers deal period D saw their lead briefly eliminated but they have now recovered.<\/p>\nVoter Switching Patterns<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n
Brexit Vote Dynamics<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
Regional Trends<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
Voter Demographics<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n
\n