{"id":185,"date":"2017-03-01T21:21:01","date_gmt":"2017-03-01T21:21:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=185"},"modified":"2019-02-09T11:11:02","modified_gmt":"2019-02-09T11:11:02","slug":"6-nations-4-updated-forecasts-based-on-world-rankings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/6-nations-4-updated-forecasts-based-on-world-rankings\/","title":{"rendered":"6 Nations #4 – Who will win in 2017? – week 4"},"content":{"rendered":"

Round 3 of the 6 Nations is over and we have 3 more games to discuss and dissect.\u00a0 More importantly, world rugby has updated its rankings and I can update my forecasts for round 4 based on these.\u00a0 I explained how the rankings work in my previous 6 Nations post <\/a>and that is also worth reading to see how the forecast of round 4 now differs from then.<\/p>\n

Looking back at that post, it was interesting how the rankings predicted a narrow win for Scotland over Wales.\u00a0 Given that Scotland had not beaten Wales for 10 years that was quite a call and in the event they won the game comfortably.\u00a0 Scotland’s reward is that they are up to #5 in the\u00a0world rankings, 2 points behind Ireland.<\/p>\n

With the updated rankings, here are my revised forecasts for round 4.<\/p>\n

The f\"\"orecasts for rounds 1 to 3 are based on the rankings that existed at that time.\u00a0 So far, the rankings have correctly predicted 8 out 9 matches with Scotland V Ireland in round 1 the only wrong call but that was predicted to be very close.\u00a0 For round 4, Wales V Ireland is predicted to be even closer, in effect a draw though by 0.02 points, Ireland are ahead.\u00a0 Remember that home sides have 3 points added to their rankings for prediction purposes.<\/p>\n

Italy V France looks like Italy’s best chance of a win this season.\u00a0 Two factors they can take heart from is that they beat France in 2011 & 2013 and France have only won 3 of their last 14 away games in the 6 Nations.\u00a0 France’s last away win was against Italy in 2015 so whilst on paper France are favourites, it might be a closer game than expected.<\/p>\n

Finally we have England V Scotland which on paper is a clear win for England.\u00a0 Then again so were their matches against France and Italy this season and both didn’t go to plan.<\/p>\n

The forecasts for Round 5 are based on the rankings as of today but these will change again once round 4 is complete.\u00a0 The round 5 forecasts should be treated as indicative for now but based on these, we could end up with an England grand slam followed by 3 teams with 3 wins.\u00a0 At that point bonus points, introduced into the 6 Nations for the first time this season will come into play.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Round 3 of the 6 Nations is over and we have 3 more games to discuss and dissect.\u00a0 More importantly, world rugby has updated its rankings and I can update my forecasts for round 4 based on these.\u00a0 I explained how the rankings work in my previous 6 Nations post and that is also worth […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[90],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-185","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-archive","7":"entry","8":"override"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=185"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1510,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185\/revisions\/1510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}