{"id":2496,"date":"2020-04-24T15:02:36","date_gmt":"2020-04-24T14:02:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=2496"},"modified":"2020-04-26T23:36:13","modified_gmt":"2020-04-26T22:36:13","slug":"how-many-people-have-died-of-covid19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/how-many-people-have-died-of-covid19\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus #3 – How many people have died of COVID19 in the UK?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Financial Times (FT<\/strong>) has estimated the true number of COVID19 related deaths in the UK as of 20th April 2020 is 42,000<\/a> not 17,000 as published by the Department of Health & Social Care (DHSC<\/strong>).\u00a0 In this article, I show that the FT headline is incorrect and is the result of either the FT comparing apples with pears due to a misunderstanding over what the various data sets measure or the FT attempting to estimate a number that can never be verified.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Who provides data on COVID19 related deaths?<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n

In section A1 of my collection of COVID19 links<\/a>, I list three sources of data for the number of deaths due to or with COVID19 in the UK which are:-<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. DHSC<\/strong><\/span> for UK as a whole and for the 4 nations of England, Wales, Scotland & Northern Ireland<\/a>.\u00a0 This used to be published by Public Health England (PHE)<\/strong> but is now done by DHSC.\u00a0 DHSC in turn source their data from the relevant body in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.<\/li>\n
  2. NHS England (NHS<\/strong><\/span>) for England only<\/a>.\u00a0 They use the same dataset provided by PHE for England only.<\/li>\n
  3. Office of National Statistics (ONS<\/strong><\/span>) for England & Wales only<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Anthony Masters, an ambassador for the Royal Statistical Society (RSS), wrote this useful article on the differences between the 3 datasets of PHE, NHS & ONS<\/a>.\u00a0 The differences arise from geographical coverage and data timings.\u00a0 When the devolved governments of Scotland, Northern Ireland & Wales came into being at the start of the millennium, responsibility for the collection of statistics was devolved in some areas and not in others.\u00a0 The result is that geographical coverage varies between sources and can be frustrating depending on what statistic you are looking for.<\/p>\n

    When someone dies in the UK, a death certificate has to be completed by either a doctor or coroner.\u00a0 These are then submitted to the General Register’s Office (GRO) which records these certificates.\u00a0 On the certificate, a cause of death (such as COVID19) will be stated along with other conditions that may have contributed to or been present at the time of death.\u00a0 For example, if someone is run over by a bus and killed then clearly the cause of death is the accident but if the post-mortem shows the person had COVID19, the death certificate should list that as well.\u00a0 If COVID19 is the cause of death, we say the death is DUE TO<\/strong> the disease but if COVID19 is present but not the cause we say the death is WITH<\/strong> the disease.\u00a0 That explains the terminology I use throughout of saying “the number of deaths due to or with COVID19<\/em>“.<\/p>\n

    There is no requirement for COVID19 to be confirmed with a test.\u00a0 A doctor can still list COVID19 if he or she suspects its presence by writing COVID19* with an asterisk.\u00a0 COVID19 is a notifiable disease which means doctors are obliged to notify authorities if they spot it.\u00a0 Unfortunately COVID19 tests have a high false negative rate which means that someone who has COVID19 can still give a negative test result.\u00a0 In that instance, the doctor has to use their judgement such as the presence of typical symptoms.\u00a0 This places a lot of responsibility on the doctor though and it is possible that some doctors won’t state COVID19 on the death certificate without a positive test.\u00a0 An analysis of COVID19 death certificates in March 2020 showed less than 2% of COVID19 deaths were marked with an asterisk.<\/p>\n

    All 3 data sources are counting the number of deaths where the death certificate states it was due to or with COVID19 on it.\u00a0 However, the NHS & DHSC are only counting the death certificates that they get to sign which means a doctor in a hospital.\u00a0 The process is that someone dies in an NHS hospital, the doctor fills out a death certificate and records the details in the NHS data system.\u00a0 The certificate is then sent to the General Register Office.\u00a0 The NHS & DHSC are not seeing the death certificates signed by doctors and coroners outside of the hospitals.<\/p>\n

    The ONS on the other hand has access to all the death certificates received by the GRO.\u00a0 They go through all certificates and record both causes of death and conditions that were present with the death.\u00a0 Consequently the ONS are counting all deaths in England & Wales and can also count the number of certificates where COVID19 is stated anywhere.<\/p>\n

    The differences between the 3 sources in terms of timing is the whole point of this article so I want to spend time explaining these.\u00a0 It motivated the FT’s article in the first place but also might have contributed to the error I think they have made.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    How many COVID19 deaths have there been in England as of 20th April 2020?<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n

    At the time of FT article, the 3 sources reported the following number of deaths due to or with COVID19 in England only.<\/p>\n