{"id":255,"date":"2017-04-03T21:30:28","date_gmt":"2017-04-03T20:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=255"},"modified":"2021-02-07T18:49:58","modified_gmt":"2021-02-07T18:49:58","slug":"forecasting1-how-do-you-identify-a-good-forecaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/forecasting1-how-do-you-identify-a-good-forecaster\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting#1 – How do you identify a good forecaster?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cI think the people in this country have had enough of experts<\/strong><\/em>\u201d<\/span><\/h3>\n

Michael Gove, Sky News, 3<\/span>rd<\/span><\/sup> June 2016<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

This was one of the most memorable quotes during the EU referendum in 2016 and came in response to a question as to why the forecasts of a whole list of organisations such as the IMF should be ignored.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>It prompted a flurry of rebuttals and articles supporting or damning him and the debate has not gone away.<\/span><\/p>\n

Like so many quotes, it has already become distorted.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>I strongly recommend you listen to <\/span>the full question and answer<\/span><\/a> because here is his quote in its entirety.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI think the people in this country have had enough of experts… from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

When I read this full quote I realised I am in complete agreement with Michael Gove.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

February 2021 – this article has been edited to add some links to new material, especially those relating to the COVID19 pandemic.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

First of all, he is not condemning all experts.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>He is condemning experts from certain organisations who make regular forecasts and keep getting them wrong.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>It is not just a matter of opinion, it is a matter of fact that the standard of forecasting by so many organisations (especially in economic fields) is lamentable.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>Recent <\/span>interviews with key officials at the Bank of England<\/span><\/a> has highlighted this issue.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tetlock, Taleb & Silver<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

This issue was brilliantly explored by Philip Tetlock in his book <\/span>“Superforecasting”<\/span><\/a> and I cannot recommend this book highly enough.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>If you want an in-depth review then I can recommend one written <\/span>by Michael Gove\u2019s former Special Advisor<\/span><\/a> no less.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>Before Tetlock, Nate Silver wrote \u201c<\/span>The Signal & the Noise<\/span><\/a>\u201d which covered many of the basic principles of good forecasts and I can thoroughly recommend that book as well (I even gave a presentation about this book at the 2013 Royal Statistical Society conference in Newcastle<\/a>).<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>To round off the list of my recommendations, many of Nassim Taleb\u2019s books are well worth reading with <\/span>“Anti-Fragile”<\/span><\/a> probably the most relevant to the debate around forecasting.<\/span><\/p>\n

Experts & Forecasters<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Let\u2019s come back to Michael Gove\u2019s full quote and focus on two aspects:<\/span><\/p>\n