{"id":353,"date":"2017-04-24T20:27:22","date_gmt":"2017-04-24T19:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=353"},"modified":"2019-02-09T11:29:37","modified_gmt":"2019-02-09T11:29:37","slug":"uk-opinion-poll-tracker-4-25-april-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/uk-opinion-poll-tracker-4-25-april-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"UK Opinion Poll Tracker #4 – My Welsh Barometer Poll Forecast Was Correct!"},"content":{"rendered":"

If you are familiar with my UK Opinion Poll Tracker<\/a>, you will know that one of my key charts for making predictions of the 2017 General Election <\/a>is R1 which shows the changes in vote share by region.<\/p>\n

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As I have explained, I track the regional breakdowns to produce this chart.\u00a0 Every now and again, a full on poll takes place to explore a region in more detail and this allows me to check how good chart R1 is.<\/p>\n

Three days ago, Roger Scully who runs the Election in Wales blog, gave advance notice of the latest Welsh Barometer poll<\/a>.\u00a0 In this he hinted that the results would be quite dramatic.\u00a0 I immediately decided to use my R1 chart to estimate what the poll would say and if you look at the comments in that advance notice, you will see I made a prediction on 23rd April.<\/p>\n

Today, the results were published and they show that the Conservatives are set to top the poll in Wales for the first time in a century <\/a>and to win a majority of the seats in Wales for the first time ever.\u00a0 The numbers as you can see were pretty close to my predictions and so I am feeling confident that my R1 chart is a valid approach to estimating regional trends.<\/p>\n

For the record, here are my predictions and what the Welsh Barometer poll showed.<\/p>\n