{"id":38,"date":"2017-01-01T17:08:07","date_gmt":"2017-01-01T17:08:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/195.62.29.123\/~marriottstats\/nigels-blog\/?p=38"},"modified":"2017-02-19T16:45:28","modified_gmt":"2017-02-19T16:45:28","slug":"brexit-why-leave-won","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/brexit-why-leave-won\/","title":{"rendered":"EU Referendum 2016 #1 – How and why did Leave win and what does it mean for UK politics? (a 4-part special)"},"content":{"rendered":"

I am delighted to announce my 4-part series describing my analysis of\u00a0the EU referendum results is now complete and available on Youtube.\u00a0The full list of the clips are:<\/p>\n

Part 1 \u2013 Where and How did Leave win?<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

Part 2 \u2013 Why did Leave win?<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

Part 3 \u2013 What does the leave vote mean for the next general election?<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

Part 4 \u2013 How will Brexit play out in the\u00a0Richmond & Sleaford\u00a0by-elections<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

I have analysed the results of the EU referendum in some depth and I hope you find my insights informative.\u00a0Some specific highlights are:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. I estimate that Leave won 400 of the 650 parliamentary constituencies, a landslide in other words.\u00a0 Note the youtube shows 403\/650 based on an older model.<\/li>\n
  2. With my seat level results, you can do some nifty analysis of leave votes by demographics.\u00a0Class & Education comes through strongly, but I also show that Age & Ethnicity are being over emphasised here and the differences there are largely at the extremes.<\/li>\n
  3. I take an in-depth look at the Lord Ashcroft survey and suggest that one reason why leave won is because Remainers conceded the argument to Leave when it came to Sovereignty & Immigration.<\/li>\n
  4. The Leave & Remain campaigns were successful in focusing the voters\u2019 minds on the Economy, Immigration & Sovereignty.<\/li>\n
  5. Ultimately the discussion about the Left Behind\/Disaffected misses the point that they are a minority of the population.\n
      \n
    • For Leave to win, they needed a larger segment of the population who are not left behind but who are opposed to the EU.<\/li>\n
    • The debate on sovereignty, especially when it came to who should control Britain\u2019s immigration policy, allowed these two segments to combine and win the referendum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
    • Brexit has left the main political parties in a variety of states, specifically:\n
        \n
      • The Conservatives are very well positioned to exploit Brexit.<\/li>\n
      • Labour votes comes from 2 wildly different extremes and leaves the party with an identity crisis.<\/li>\n
      • The Lib Dems can use Brexit as a way back to political relevance but the Richmond Park byelection is all or nothing for them.<\/li>\n
      • UKIP can make significant inroads into Labour\u2019s working class seats provided they can pull their act together.<\/li>\n
      • The Greens are effectively the Lib Dems in disguise and realistically they need to consider an alliance with the Lib Dems.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        I hope you find these clips interesting and I would love to receive your feedback.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        I am delighted to announce my 4-part series describing my analysis of\u00a0the EU referendum results is now complete and available on Youtube.\u00a0The full list of the clips are: Part 1 \u2013 Where and How did Leave win? Part 2 \u2013 Why did Leave win? Part 3 \u2013 What does the leave vote mean for the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":39,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,9],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-38","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-elections","8":"category-featured-blog","9":"entry","10":"override"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":126,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38\/revisions\/126"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}