{"id":3844,"date":"2021-05-24T15:19:25","date_gmt":"2021-05-24T14:19:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=3844"},"modified":"2022-05-20T11:04:57","modified_gmt":"2022-05-20T10:04:57","slug":"hartlepool-batley-and-spen-chesham-and-amersham-by-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/hartlepool-batley-and-spen-chesham-and-amersham-by-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"By Elections #3 – Hartlepool + Chesham & Amersham + Batley & Spen = Brexit Realignment?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Conservatives victory in the Hartlepool by-election<\/a> means the Brexit realignment of British politics is still taking place … or does it?\u00a0 In fact, Labour’s defeat in Hartlepool for the first time in over 60 years should be put down to tactical voting rather than Brexit realignment, at least for now.\u00a0 \u00a0It will be the two upcoming by-elections in Batley & Spen on 1st July<\/a>\u00a0representing the Red Wall<\/strong> <\/span>and Chesham & Amersham on 17th June 2021<\/a> representing the Blue Sea<\/strong> <\/span>that will answer the question “I<\/em>s Brexit realignment is still continuing or did it end in December 2019?<\/em><\/span>”<\/p>\n

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This is part 2 of a series about the next general election<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n

In “Keir Starmer’s train to Downing Street<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/a>” I introduced my target seat list for Labour at the next election which I dubbed InterCity 125.\u00a0 Without major changes in the politics of Scotland, the only way Labour can win a majority at the next general election is to make net gains of 125 seats from the Conservatives in England, most of which are in between (inter) cities rather in (intra) cities.\u00a0 In that article, I noted Labour’s need to identify seats to defend against further Brexit realignment, a point which takes on new relevance given Hartlepool.\u00a0 So this article lays the groundwork for Labour’s seat defence list as well as identifying opportunities and threats for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.<\/p>\n

In writing this article, I will assume that readers are familiar with the facts, concepts & reasoning I used in my earlier article but I will refer readers to the relevant points of those where necessary.<\/p>\n

Red Walls & Blue Seas<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n

The Red Wall is now part of the British political lexicon but what is it?\u00a0 Conventionally, it is defined as seats that have returned Labour MPs for many years, often with large majorities, mostly situated in the North & Midlands.\u00a0 At the 2015 general election, I counted 95 seats (13 in Wales, 82 in England) which Labour have held continuously since 1964.\u00a0 By 2019, 22 of these (21 in England, 1 in Wales) had fallen to the Conservatives and the loss of Hartlepool increases this to 23.<\/p>\n

These 95 though are seats with largely the same boundaries since 1964 and don’t include other seats whose characteristics are similar to these but whose boundaries have been in existence for a shorter period.\u00a0 I find the simplest way to identify Red Wall<\/strong> <\/span>seats today is to include any seat in the North & Midlands that voted Labour in 2010 & 2015, Leave in 2016 and where the top 2 parties in 2019 were a combination of Labour, Conservatives, Brexit Party or Independent.\u00a0 108 seats meet these criteria of which the Conservatives now hold 38 (including Hartlepool).\u00a0 This is Brexit realignment breaching the Red Wall and the question to consider is how many of the remaining 70 Labour seats, which includes Batley & Spen, are vulnerable to further Brexit realignment.<\/p>\n

My demographic map (introduced halfway through my InterCity 125 pos<\/a>t) shows where these seats are to be found.\u00a0 The main battlefield is the LL quadrant and of the 54 remaining Labour seats in this quadrant, 25 have majorities of less than 10% including Hartlepool (9% now overturned) and Batley & Spen (7% to be overturned?).\"\"<\/p>\n

For me, the Blue Wall is the 37 (now 38) seats the Conservatives took from the Red Wall.\u00a0 It is not the true blue Conservative seats in the South that may be vulnerable to the flip side of Brexit realignment.\u00a0 I call the counterpart to the Red Wall the Blue Sea<\/strong><\/span> since when you look at a map of the South, one sees a swathe of blue with the odd outcropping of other colours.\u00a0 Also it allows Labour to talk about parting the Blue Sea due to Labour voters moving out of London.<\/p>\n

I’ve chosen to define the Blue Sea as seats which voted Conservative in 2010 & 2015, voted Remain or narrow Leave (<54% Leave) in 2016 and where the Conservatives were one of the top 2 parties in 2019.\u00a0 There are 93 such seats which includes Chesham & Amersham.\u00a0 The Conservatives lost 12 of these in 2019 and the question is whether any more are vulnerable.\u00a0 Of the 81 Conservative seats today, 16 have a majority of less than 10% which does not include Chesham & Amersham (29%).<\/p>\n

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The demographics of the 93 Blue Sea seats are the complete opposite of the 107 Red Wall seats.\u00a0 Whereas the Red Wall seats are almost all straight fights between Labour & the Conservatives, for the Blue Sea, the Conservatives battle with the Lib Dems in 47 seats, Labour in 44 & Independents in 2.\u00a0 The gold & red ellipses in the chart above show where most of the battlegrounds are for Lib Dems & Labour respectively and it is notable that the upper left hand side of the UL quadrant which includes Chesham & Amersham are mostly CON-LD battles whereas the CON-LAB battles take place in the upper centre of the map.<\/p>\n

Altogether, it should be clear from the above that the parting of the Blue Sea is hampered by vote splitting among the anti-Conservative parties.\u00a0 Hence why I will look at the opportunities for tactical voting and electoral alliances in this article as well.<\/p>\n

What would Complete Brexit Realignment look like?<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n

A Complete Brexit Realignment (CBR)<\/strong> <\/span>occurs if the vote shares of the parties in a seat (or region) exactly matches a prediction based solely on the 2016 Leave & Remain vote shares in that seat.\u00a0 First I need to introduce two new “parties” –<\/p>\n