{"id":4302,"date":"2021-12-21T17:00:45","date_gmt":"2021-12-21T17:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=4302"},"modified":"2021-12-21T17:20:05","modified_gmt":"2021-12-21T17:20:05","slug":"all-i-want-for-christmas-is-football","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-football\/","title":{"rendered":"All I want for Christmas is football!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Will there be any football this Christmas?\u00a0 The Omicron variant of COVID19 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/sport\/59682938\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">is wreaking havoc with football and rugby schedules<\/a> and the traditional Boxing Day lineup is in danger of being cancelled.\u00a0 So what will football fans do instead?\u00a0 The good news is I am giving a Christmas present to all football supporter that is almost as good as the real thing.\u00a0 All you need are 2 packs of playing cards, a pen and paper or a spreadsheet and you can play a simple football simulation game which guarantees fun and excitement for all.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<h5><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4314\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards7.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"621\" height=\"221\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards7.png 492w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards7-300x107.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards7-450x160.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 621px) 100vw, 621px\" \/><\/h5>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">What you need to play football with playing cards<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>You will need two standard decks of 52 cards plus 2 jokers per pack making a total of 108 cards (104 standard cards plus 4 jokers).\u00a0\u00a0It is important for your jokers to be distinguishable in some way.\u00a0 In my packs of cards the jokers look different in each pack but if they are identical across the two packs you will need to put H (for home side) on two of the jokers and A (for away side) on the other two.<\/p>\n<p>You also need a large enough table to lay out up to 30 cards at a time plus a pen and paper or spreadsheet to record your results.<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>How is the game played?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>Shuffle the 108 cards together as thoroughly as you can and then deal out 6 non-joker cards (plus any jokers if they occur) face up to represent a single match.\u00a0 Each non-joker represents 15 minutes of play whilst a joker is a sending off which changes the odds of the game but doesn&#8217;t represent a period of time.\u00a0 If you are playing a cup match which has gone to extra time, then 2 more non-joker cards (plus jokers if they occur) should be dealt out to represent extra time.\u00a0 If the match goes to penalties then a single card for each penalty is dealt out until someone wins.<\/p>\n<p>If playing a competition, I usually deal out 3 or 4 games at once which may mean up to 28 cards laid out on your table.\u00a0\u00a0Once you are familiar with the rules, I find I am able to deal out and record results at the rate of about 60 to 90 games an hour.\u00a0 That means you can play a wide variety of league and cup formats.<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>What do the card values mean if no players are sent off?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>Here is a photo of 3 games I&#8217;ve dealt out from left to right.\u00a0 The left hand card denotes the 1st 15 minutes of the game and the right hand card is the last 15 minutes of the game.\u00a0 I create a gap in the middle so that I can see the 1st half and 2nd half separately.\u00a0 No jokers were dealt out here so that means all sides finished the game with 11 players and there were no sending offs.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Red cards (hearts &amp; diamonds) represent the home team.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Black cards (clubs &amp; spades) represent the away team.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Jokers need to be split with half representing the home team and the other denoting the away team<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The following cards are <strong>Goal Cards<\/strong> and equate to the following number of goals for a 15 minute period.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-4307 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"338\" height=\"435\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards3.png 1760w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards3-233x300.png 233w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards3-795x1024.png 795w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards3-768x989.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards3-1193x1536.png 1193w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards3-1591x2048.png 1591w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards3-272x350.png 272w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards3-1320x1700.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 338px) 100vw, 338px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>TWOs<\/strong><\/span> = 2 goals for that team.\u00a0 So red 2s are two goals for the home team, black 2s are two goals for the away team.<\/li>\n<li><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">KINGs<\/span><\/strong> = 1 goal for the team of the card&#8217;s colour<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>QUEENs<\/strong> <\/span>= 1 goal for the team of the card&#8217;s colour<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>RED JACKs<\/strong> = 1 goal for the home team<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>RED ACEs<\/strong> = 1 goal for the home team<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>BLACK ACEs<\/strong> = 1 goal for each team i.e. it&#8217;s a 1-1 card<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>All other non-joker cards score nothing and are <strong>non-Goal cards<\/strong>.\u00a0 This includes the <strong>BLACK JACK<\/strong>s.<\/p>\n<p>So what are the final scores for the 3 games in the photo?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Game 1 &#8211; 3-0 to home team<\/strong><\/span> &#8211; the home team scores 2 goals in the 2nd 15 minute period of the 1st half because of the red 2 of diamonds.\u00a0 In the 2nd 15 minute period of the 2nd half the home team scores another goal due to the red ace of hearts.<\/li>\n<li><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Game 2 &#8211; 1-1 draw<\/span><\/strong> &#8211; just before half time, the away side scores a goal due to the black king of clubs and the home side equalises just before full time due to the red queen of diamonds.\u00a0 Note the black jack scores nothing because it is not a goal card (though it may become one if there is a sending off under some circumstances, see later section)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Game 3 &#8211; 4-3 to away team<\/strong> &#8211; the game starts with a bang with both sides scoring within the 1st 15 minutes due to the black ace of spades and at half time it is still 1-1.\u00a0 The 2nd half opens with another black ace so it is now 2-2.\u00a0 Then the away side scores 2 goals with the black 2 of clubs before the home side pulls one back with the red jack of hearts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If the game is being played at a neutral venue (say a cup final) then the goal cards differ slightly as follows.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>KINGs, QUEENs, TWO<\/strong>s<\/span> score as above i.e. nothing changes.<\/li>\n<li>All <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>ACEs<\/strong> <\/span>(red and black) are now 1-1 i.e. both sides score a goal.<\/li>\n<li>All <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">JACKs<\/span> <\/strong>are now<strong> non-goal<\/strong> cards i.e. score nothing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These are the rules intended to apply to league games and between teams of similar standard in cup matches.\u00a0 If you are playing a competition which involves strong and weak teams e.g. an FA cup with a Premier League team playing a League One team, the rules for these games are explained in a later section.<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>What are the expected outcomes of a match?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>Given the rules I&#8217;ve just described above, let&#8217;s look at the expected outcome.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4309 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"273\" height=\"120\" \/>On average, 2.77 goals will be scored in a game with a score of 1.62-1.15 for the home team.\u00a0 This is not difficult to work out as shown in the table.\u00a0 For both home and away teams, out of 104 cards, there are four 2-goal cards (twos).\u00a0 For the home team, there are 20 1-goal cards (red aces, kings, queens, jacks and black aces) whilst for the away team, there are only 12 1-goal cards (black queens, kings and aces).\u00a0 This means there are 80 non-goal cards for the home team and 88 non-goal cards for the away team.\u00a0 Taking the weighted average of these cards and multiplying by 6 will give you the expected number of goals the home and away side are expected to score.<\/p>\n<p>How well does this compare with the actual premier league today?\u00a0 Over the last 10 seasons, the average number of goals per game has been 2.74 and this is remarkably consistent as shown in the chart.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4311\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"371\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards6.png 2306w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards6-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards6-1024x594.png 1024w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards6-768x446.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards6-1536x891.png 1536w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards6-2048x1188.png 2048w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards6-450x261.png 450w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards6-1320x766.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Last season (2020\/21) was remarkable for the fact that the number of home and away goals were basically equal at 1.35-1.34.\u00a0 Of course, almost the entire season was played without fans due to the COVID19 pandemic.\u00a0 For the 5 seasons before that, the average score 1.54 &#8211; 1.20 which is slightly narrower than the 1.62 &#8211; 1.15 the playing card game gives you.\u00a0 In fact, if I changed the rules so there were 19 1-goal cards for the home team and 13 1-goal cards for the away team, then the expected score would be 1.56 &#8211; 1.21 which would be perfect!\u00a0 This could be done by making one of the red jacks a non-goal card and one of the black jacks a 1-goal card but I decided this would make like life too complicated and I am happy to stick with the rules above but do make this change if you want to.<\/p>\n<p>The tables below show what the expected outcomes are in terms of home &amp; away wins, draws and scores.\u00a0 All of these can calculated if you are familiar with the Poisson distribution which is the bedrock of football analytics.\u00a0 You can find out more about the Poisson distribution <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/epl-2017-18-2-my-prediction-of-the-final-league-table-latest-round-29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">in my article from the 2017\/18 EPL season<\/a> when I attempted to predict what the final table would look like with 10 games to go.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4310\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"645\" height=\"181\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards5.png 563w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards5-300x84.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards5-450x126.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px\" \/><\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>How do the card values change if a player is sent off?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>For every player sent off (SO) on a team as a result of their joker appearing, the goal cards change as follows &#8211;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>1st SO<\/strong> &#8211; the team&#8217;s 2-goal card (<strong>TWOs)<\/strong> now become 1-1 cards i.e. it&#8217;s now a 1-goal card for both home and away sides.<\/li>\n<li><strong>2nd SO<\/strong> &#8211; the <strong>Black ACEs<\/strong> now become a 2-goal card for the team&#8217;s opponents.<\/li>\n<li><strong>3rd SO<\/strong> &#8211; the team&#8217;s 2-goal card (<strong>TWOs<\/strong>) are now 2-goal cards for their opponents.<\/li>\n<li><strong>4th SO<\/strong> &#8211; the <strong>Black JACKs<\/strong> now become 1-goal cards for the team&#8217;s opponents.<\/li>\n<li><strong>5th SO<\/strong> &#8211; the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Red JACKs<\/strong> <\/span>are now non-goal cards if the home team has this sending off, away team is unaffected.\u00a0 If it&#8217;s a neutral venue, the Red JACKs are now 1-goal cards for the team&#8217;s opponents.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If both teams have a player sent off then these cancel each other out and the 1st sending off rule above no longer applies i.e. we are back into a game with the rules where no sending offs have occurred.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s look at some real examples and see if you can work out the final score.\u00a0 We will assume that these are premier league matches with a home and away team.\u00a0 <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-4306 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"338\" height=\"599\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards2.png 1397w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards2-169x300.png 169w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards2-578x1024.png 578w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards2-768x1361.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards2-867x1536.png 867w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards2-1156x2048.png 1156w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards2-198x350.png 198w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards2-1320x2339.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 338px) 100vw, 338px\" \/>In my packs, I denote the joker with the harlequin figure as home sending offs and the jokers with lists of words and numbers as away sending offs.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Game 4 &#8211; <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>3-2 win for away team<\/strong><\/span> &#8211; without sending offs, this would have been a 3-2 win for the home team.\u00a0 However, when the home team&#8217;s player was sent off at the start of the 2nd half, they were already 2-1 down and by the 1st SO rule, the red 2 becomes a 1-1 card hence the final score is a 3-2 defeat for the home team.<\/li>\n<li>Game 5 &#8211; <strong>3-1 win for away team<\/strong> &#8211; without sending offs, this would have been a 2-2 draw.\u00a0 The 1st sending off occurs before the 1st black ace but only the red two is changed after the 1st SO so the score is 1-1 until with 15 mins to go, the home side has another player sent off.\u00a0 Now the 2nd SO rule comes in which converts the 2nd black ace from a 1-1 card to a 2-goal card for the away team and they win 3-1.<\/li>\n<li>Game 6 &#8211; <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>1-1 draw<\/strong><\/span> &#8211; without sending offs, this would have been a 2-0 away win but the sending off brings the 1st SO rule in and changes the black two from a 2-goal card to a 1-1 card.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The sending off rules I&#8217;ve listed here don&#8217;t change the expected number of goals per game which is still 2.77 but they do change the home:away split.\u00a0 You should be able to work out that after a home team has a player sent off, their odds change from 4 2-goal and 16 1-goal cards to no 2-goal and 24 1-goal cards whilst the away team still has 4 2-goal cards and now has 16 1-goal cards.\u00a0 That means both the home and away sides are expected to score 1.38 goals i.e. the home side loses its home advantage with a sending off.\u00a0 Should the away side have a player sent off then the expected scoreline changes to 1.85 &#8211; 0.92.\u00a0 With two players sent off, the expected scoreline is 2.08 &#8211; 0.69 if the away team has the sending offs and 0.92 &#8211; 1.62 if the home team has the sending offs.<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>What adjustment should I make for cup matches?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>Since there are only 2 jokers (and thus a maximum of 2 sending offs) for each team in the pack, why have I listed up to 5 sending off rules in the previous section?\u00a0 The answer is for cup games between say a Premier League team and a League 2 team.\u00a0 What I do with matches like this is say that since the teams are 3 tiers apart, the lower league team starts with 3 virtual sending offs (from the point of view of the rules) and should they have 2 players sent off, they end up with 5 sending offs in all.\u00a0 I have found this to work very well.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s worth revisiting game 6 above, this time assuming it&#8217;s a cup match between a Championship team at home and a League Two team away.\u00a0 Because they are 2 tiers apart, the League Two team starts with the disadvantage of two virtual sending offs which means any black twos are already 1-1 cards and black aces are 2-goal cards for the championship team.\u00a0 Then the League Two team has a player sent off in the second half which now means they are regarded as having 3 sending offs which means the black twos are now 2-goal cards for the home team so that means the home team wins 2-0 instead.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4305 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"339\" height=\"550\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards1.png 1478w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards1-185x300.png 185w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards1-631x1024.png 631w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards1-768x1247.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards1-946x1536.png 946w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards1-1261x2048.png 1261w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards1-216x350.png 216w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Cards1-1320x2143.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 339px) 100vw, 339px\" \/>Try and work out the results of the next 3 games.\u00a0 Assume the away side is a premier league team and the home team are respectively from top to bottom, a championship, league 1 and league 2 team.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Game 7 &#8211;<span style=\"color: #000000;\"> <strong>3-2 win for the away team<\/strong><\/span> &#8211; the championship team starts with a virtual sending off which means their red twos are now 1-1 cards.\u00a0 When the premier league team has a player sent off, this virtual sending off is wiped out and the teams are now deemed equal which means any red twos would now be 2-goal cards for the home team.\u00a0 Unfortunately they didn&#8217;t get a red two and were unable to pull back the half time deficit.\u00a0 The point is that kings, queens and red aces are completely unaffected by sending offs, it is only black aces, black twos and red and black jacks that are affected.<\/li>\n<li>Game 8 &#8211; <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>2-1 win for the away team<\/strong><\/span> &#8211; the league 1 team starts with 2 virtual sending offs and by half time they are now at 3 sending offs.\u00a0 That would mean the red twos becoming a 2-goal card for the away team but before that the away team has a player sent off which cancels out one of the home sending offs putting us back at 2 virtual sending offs.\u00a0 So the red two is a 1-1 card.<\/li>\n<li>Game 9 &#8211; <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>1-0 win for the home team<\/strong> <\/span>&#8211; the league 2 team starts with 3 virtual sending offs which increases to 4 sending offs by the middle of 2nd half.\u00a0 But red Jacks are not yet affected and so the league 2 team pulls off an upset in the last minute to win.\u00a0 Had the home team been a conference team instead and thus 4 tiers apart, then we would have reached the 5th sending off rule that turns red jacks from being 1-goal card for the home to a 1-goal card for the away team and it would instead be a 1-0 win for the away team.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The sending off concept takes practice to get used to but once you&#8217;ve grasped it, it will become 2nd nature to read the cards.<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">What if a match goes to penalties?<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>If the teams are deemed equally matched then a penalty shoot out is played by turning over a card for each penalty and recording the outcome as follows.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>GOAL<\/strong> &#8211; Any <strong>non-goal<\/strong> card regardless of colour i.e. 3s to 10s plus the black jacks.\u00a0 It is not necessary for the home team to have a red 6 say, a black 6 would still be a goal.<\/li>\n<li><strong>MISS<\/strong> -Any <strong>goal card<\/strong> or <b>joker<\/b>\u00a0regardless of colour, so if an away team gets a red queen it is still a miss.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Out of 108 cards, there are 32 goal and sending off cards so that means there is a 70:30 chance of penalties being scored which feels about right to me.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s up to you if you want to favour the stronger team in a penalty shootout.\u00a0 The simplest way to do this is say sending off cards are now goals and perhaps the red jacks as well.\u00a0 Together that would change the probability of scoring a penalty from 70% to 80%.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Merry Christmas!<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>I do hope you enjoy this playing this game.\u00a0 I invented it over 30 years ago and have played it on and off over the years, refining the concept as I went along.\u00a0 As much as possible I wanted the outcomes to be reasonably realistic of proper football matches.\u00a0 You should find it exciting to play especially when it&#8217;s your team who are 1-0 down after 75 minutes and waiting to see what the 6th card is.\u00a0 Trust me, I&#8217;ve had a few of those games!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">&#8212; Would you like to comment on this article? &#8212;-<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>Please do leave your comments on this <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Twitter<\/strong><\/span> thread.\u00a0 All feedback is welcome.<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">&#8212; Subscribe to my newsletter to receive more articles like this one! &#8212;-<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>If you would like to receive notifications from me of news, articles and offers relating to sport, please <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #008000;\" href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/subscribe-to-our-newsletter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here to go to my Newsletter Subscription page<\/a><\/strong><\/span> and tick the Sport category and other categories that may be of interest to you.\u00a0 You will be able to unsubscribe at anytime.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Will there be any football this Christmas?\u00a0 The Omicron variant of COVID19 is wreaking havoc with football and rugby schedules and the traditional Boxing Day lineup is in danger of being cancelled.\u00a0 So what will football fans do instead?\u00a0 The good news is I am giving a Christmas present to all football supporter that is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4314,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[53,55,258,54,84,69,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-4302","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-sport","8":"tag-epl","9":"tag-football","10":"tag-playing-cards","11":"tag-premier-league","12":"tag-probability","13":"tag-simulation","14":"tag-sport-analytics","15":"entry","16":"override"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4302"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4302\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4324,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4302\/revisions\/4324"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}