{"id":5314,"date":"2023-11-05T22:01:05","date_gmt":"2023-11-05T22:01:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=5314"},"modified":"2023-11-05T22:16:29","modified_gmt":"2023-11-05T22:16:29","slug":"australia-voice-referendum-2-my-forecast-reviewed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/australia-voice-referendum-2-my-forecast-reviewed\/","title":{"rendered":"Voice Referendum #2 &#8211; My Forecast Reviewed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Australians rejected the proposed constitutional amendment known as <strong>The Voice<\/strong> in a referendum on 14<sup>th<\/sup> October 2023.\u00a0 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> won the national vote by <strong>20.1<\/strong> percentage points and the state count <strong>6-0 <\/strong>but the more important question is was my forecast right?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5316 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Monthly-Polls-Binary-FINAL.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"664\" height=\"505\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Monthly-Polls-Binary-FINAL.png 664w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Monthly-Polls-Binary-FINAL-300x228.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Monthly-Polls-Binary-FINAL-450x342.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 664px) 100vw, 664px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>What was my forecast?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>My article &#8220;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/australia-voice-referendum-1-my-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><em>Voice Referendum 1 &#8211; My Forecast Explained<\/em><\/span><\/a><\/strong>&#8221; gives you the following background &#8211;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>What is the Voice referendum<\/li>\n<li>How the referendum is conducted<\/li>\n<li>What the opinion polls said between 2017 &amp; 2023<\/li>\n<li>How I made my forecast<\/li>\n<li>My criteria for declaring success<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>My final forecast &amp; success criteria were &#8211;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> to beat <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>YES<\/strong><\/span> by <strong>17.0%<\/strong> i.e. <strong>58.5%<\/strong> of Australian voters would vote <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> and <strong>41.5%<\/strong> would vote <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">YES<\/span><\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>All <strong>6<\/strong> states would vote <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span>.<\/li>\n<li>If the actual winning margin for <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> was within <strong>3.0%<\/strong> of <strong>17.0%<\/strong> i.e. between <strong>14.0%<\/strong> &amp; <strong>20.0%<\/strong>, I would regard that as success.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>What was the outcome?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tallyroom.aec.gov.au\/ReferendumNationalResults-29581.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Australian Electoral Commission Tally Room<\/a> states <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>60.06%<\/strong><\/span> of valid votes cast were for <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> and <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>39.94%<\/strong><\/span> for <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>YES<\/strong><\/span>, a winning margin of <strong>20.11%<\/strong> for <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0 All <strong>6<\/strong> states and the Northern Territory voted <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong> <\/span>with only ACT (Australia Capital Territory) voting<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"> <strong>YES<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 The proposed amendment to the Australian Constitution was therefore defeated.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-5320 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Results.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"503\" height=\"258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Results.png 579w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Results-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Results-450x231.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 503px) 100vw, 503px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>More details on the results can be found here &#8211;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/2023_Australian_Indigenous_Voice_referendum#Results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wikipedia<\/a> &#8211; Wiki take their feed from the AEC but the page may have other links of interest<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/kevinbonham.blogspot.com\/2023\/11\/voice-referendum-turnout-and-informal.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kevin Bonham<\/a> &#8211; Australian election analyst who has written a number of blogs in relation to the Voice.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2023-10-15\/voice-results-explained-map\/102978520?fbclid=IwAR3R9NUvfdWpayuuOB9Vy_EnxqouQfRL7N17C8M03L_lXtDLfdMkX9oX0Bw_aem_AYc-Ev902LPzZLpnhSyDEcU2s2-scluih87csR99CTZbcH9L84m3WhsDzAS6b22yozI\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ABC &#8211; the main Australian broadcaster who also give results by parliamentary seats<\/a>.\u00a0 \u00a0I will say the data visualisation used here is stunning and makes it so easy to read and follow on a smartphone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Was my forecast a success?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>Why couldn&#8217;t someone have stuffed the ballot boxes with a few more <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>YES<\/strong><\/span> votes?!\u00a0 I got the <strong>6-0<\/strong> state count for <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> right but by a whisker, the winning margin for <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> of <strong>20.1%<\/strong> is just outside my success range of <strong>14% &#8211; 20%<\/strong>!\u00a0 If <strong>39.95%<\/strong> had voted <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>YES<\/strong><\/span>, then rounding to one decimal place would have made it <strong>40.0%<\/strong> to 1 decimal place&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The reason for my <strong>+\/-3%<\/strong> margin was that in UK general elections, such an error in the Conservative vote share lead over Labour can change the narrative and outcomes of elections.\u00a0 So whilst I could fudge this as a technical success, it is not quite good enough for my purposes so it is worth reviewing how I arrived at my forecast.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>What lessons should I learn?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>What I find annoying is that in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MarriottNigel\/status\/1706295537199104014\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a tweet posted 25th September 2023 on Twitter\/X<\/a>, I showed a method of trend extrapolation which predicted <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> to win by<strong> 21%<\/strong> based on the polls at that time.\u00a0 This was based on <strong>within-house trends<\/strong> which proved a <strong>Trend Change<\/strong> had occurred after the Australian Senate passed the Voice referendum bill on 19th June 2023.\u00a0 However, when <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/australia-voice-referendum-1-my-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">I updated my forecast on 12th October 2023<\/a>, the last set of polls in October muddied the waters and led me to conclude a <strong>Step Change<\/strong> had occurred instead after that date.\u00a0 This resulted in a different trend extrapolation of <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> winning by <strong>16.5%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The two different trend extrapolations are represented in this chart with solid red lines for <span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>Step Change<\/strong><\/span> and dashed green lines for <strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">Trend Change<\/span><\/strong>.\u00a0 The extrapolated leads for <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> shown are based on all polls up to 14th October.\u00a0 As can be seen, extrapolation using trend change would have been spot on.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5321 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-Trend-Changes.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"884\" height=\"541\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-Trend-Changes.png 884w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-Trend-Changes-300x184.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-Trend-Changes-768x470.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-Trend-Changes-450x275.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 884px) 100vw, 884px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The within-house trends can be seen in this chart and it is the last set of black dots plotted in October which confused me.\u00a0 If I had ignored these, a trend change would be have been the obvious choice but October polls initially suggested the trend to <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> had stopped which eventually led me to conclude a step change was the better choice for my extrapolation.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5287\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-change-by-House-D.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1878\" height=\"1027\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-change-by-House-D.png 1878w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-change-by-House-D-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-change-by-House-D-1024x560.png 1024w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-change-by-House-D-768x420.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-change-by-House-D-1536x840.png 1536w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-change-by-House-D-450x246.png 450w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OzVoice23-Polls-YES-lead-change-by-House-D-1320x722.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1878px) 100vw, 1878px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>So why did the polls confuse me in October?\u00a0 The most likely answer is that Australians voted quite differently depending on the method of voting they used and pollsters probably struggled to account for this in their October polls.<\/p>\n<p>In the UK, <strong>80%<\/strong> of voters vote on election day with the remainder sending in postal votes in the 2 weeks before election day.\u00a0 In Australia, postal votes could be cast up to month before polling day and from the start of October, voters could also vote early at a polling station.\u00a0 Based on <a href=\"https:\/\/antonygreen.com.au\/some-graphs-on-the-voice-referendum-result\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">data provided by this excellent blog by Antony Green<\/a> and shown in the table below, it appears only <strong>45%<\/strong> of voters voted in person on 14th October whilst <strong>35%<\/strong> voted early in person, <strong>11%<\/strong> by post and the remaining <strong>9%<\/strong> voting by some other early voting mechanism.\u00a0 Among the <strong>46%<\/strong> voting early or by post, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> beat <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>YES<\/strong><\/span> by <strong>30%<\/strong> whereas among the 45% voting on polling day,<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> <strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> beat <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>YES<\/strong><\/span> by only <strong>12%<\/strong>, a considerable difference that Antony states is very unusual for Australia.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5322\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Results-by-Vote-Type.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"844\" height=\"413\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Results-by-Vote-Type.png 844w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Results-by-Vote-Type-300x147.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Results-by-Vote-Type-768x376.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OzVoice23-Results-by-Vote-Type-450x220.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 844px) 100vw, 844px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As you can imagine, a pollster running a survey in early October would have had to ask people if they had already voted and then work out how to account for their answers in their results.\u00a0 If the survey had too few or too many early voters, then given the large differences seen in <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span>&#8216;s lead over <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>YES<\/strong><\/span>, it&#8217;s not difficult to imagine this causing polls to become more volatile in October.\u00a0 Had I known this was likely to be an issue, it&#8217;s possible I would have decided to place less weight on polls in October which would have been counterintuitive.<\/p>\n<p>The lesson I take out of this for UK general elections is to be thankful that we have only 2 ways of voting!\u00a0 It is unlikely such an issue would be as prominent in the UK but it might pay me to look at UK opinion poll history in more depth.\u00a0 My approach till now has been to use <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/uk-general-elections-4-how-accurate-are-the-polls-updated-with-ge19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">only polls taken in the week before election day<\/a> but perhaps since 2001 (when postal voting rules were relaxed) I might find some predictive power from using polls taken two weeks before election day.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"color: #008000;\">Why did NO win?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The first articles are starting to appear to explain why <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>YES<\/strong><\/span> lost so badly after starting out with a <strong>55%<\/strong> lead.\u00a0 Many are making comparisons with Brexit in the UK &amp; Trump in the USA from 2016.\u00a0 I have linked to a few of these and will add more as needed &#8211;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.whatkatydid.net\/p\/dealing-with-disappointment\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dr Katy Barnett&#8217;s reflections<\/a> &#8211; I linked to an earlier article of hers at the start of this article and I found her postscript insightful.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/lawliberty.org\/australia-says-no\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Helen Dale interview<\/a> &#8211; Helen Dale is an Australian lawyer living in the UK and I found her exposition of the historical background to referendums in Australia very interesting.\u00a0 Having read other materials from both sides on the referendum, I think she fairly summarises the predominant NO voter motivations.<\/li>\n<li>E<a href=\"https:\/\/en.m.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Endorsements_in_the_2023_Australian_Indigenous_Voice_referendum\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ndorsements for Yes &amp; No<\/a> &#8211; a Remain 2016 vibe I immediately picked up on when I started following the Voice 5 months ago was the overwhelming endorsements by the so-called &#8220;great and good&#8221; of Australia.\u00a0 This Wiki links lists all public endorsements for <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>YES<\/strong><\/span> and <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong> <\/span>and the disparity is glaring.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/segmentation-1-who-has-more-in-common-leave-trump-voters-or-remain-clinton-voters-analysis-of-sentiments\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">How similar are Leave &amp; Trump voters?<\/a> &#8211; I really hope a similar study is done in Australia to these &#8220;exit polls&#8221; carried out by Lord Ashcroft in 2016.\u00a0 By analysing these, I showed Remain &amp; Clinton voters were almost identical in their underlying sentiments whilst Leave &amp; Trump could be partly differentiated.\u00a0 I would not be surprised if we see something similar in Australia 2023 with <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>YES<\/strong><\/span> voters mapping closely to Remain\/Clinton voters whilst <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>NO<\/strong><\/span> voters are only proximate to Leave\/Trump voters.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">&#8212; Would you like to comment on this article? &#8212;-<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>Please do leave your comments on this <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MarriottNigel\/status\/1673316571731709952\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Twitter\/X thread<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">&#8212; Subscribe to my newsletter to receive more articles like this one! &#8212;-<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>If you would like to receive notifications from me of news, articles and offers relating to Elections &amp; Polling, please <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #008000;\" href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/subscribe-to-our-newsletter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here to go to my Newsletter Subscription page<\/a><\/strong><\/span> and tick the Elections and\/or Surveys category and other categories that may be of interest to you.\u00a0 You will be able to unsubscribe at anytime.<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">&#8212; Read some of my other blog posts on elections &#8212;<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/uk-general-elections-keir-starmers-road-to-downing-street\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Keir Starmer&#8217;s train to Downing Street in 2024<\/a> &#8211; I look at which tracks Starmer can follow to win a majority at the next election.<\/li>\n<li>My first attempt to forecast <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/weca-mayor-2021-election-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a local mayoral election which uses the Supplementary Vote system<\/a><\/li>\n<li>I am the <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/uk-general-election-2019-2-my-forecast-beats-the-exit-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">most accurate forecaster of the 2019 UK General Election<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/uk-general-elections-4-jeremy-corbyns-road-to-downing-street\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jeremy Corbyn&#8217;s road to a majority in 2019 and the roadblocks they face<\/a> &#8211; my thoughts in January 2019 on the roadblocks in Labour&#8217;s way to winning the next election.<\/li>\n<li>H<a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/uk-general-elections-4-how-accurate-are-the-polls-updated-with-ge19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ow accurate are voting intention polls for UK General Elections<\/a>?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>More posts can be found by clicking on the <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/category\/elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elections<\/a> tab at the top of your screen.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australians rejected the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14th October 2023.\u00a0 NO won the national vote by 20.1 percentage points and the state count 6-0 but the more important question is was my forecast right?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":5320,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6],"tags":[317,23,21,25,91,16,318,46,183,316],"class_list":{"0":"post-5314","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-elections","8":"category-forecasting","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-brexit","11":"tag-election-forecasting","12":"tag-forecasting-model","13":"tag-parliament","14":"tag-politics","15":"tag-referendum","16":"tag-trend-analysis","17":"tag-trend-extrapolation","18":"tag-voice","19":"entry","20":"override"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5314"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5324,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5314\/revisions\/5324"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}