{"id":6143,"date":"2025-04-13T12:52:40","date_gmt":"2025-04-13T11:52:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=6143"},"modified":"2025-05-10T18:53:08","modified_gmt":"2025-05-10T17:53:08","slug":"weca-mayor-2025-election-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/weca-mayor-2025-election-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"UK Local Elections #2A &#8211; 2025 West England Mayoral Election &#8211; My Initial Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/2025_West_of_England_mayoral_election\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">West England Combined Authority (<strong>WECA<\/strong>) Metro Mayor election of 2025<\/a> will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast.\u00a0 My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen in England before.\u00a0 Why no-one has polled WECA is a mystery because this is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable elections I&#8217;ve ever seen.<\/p>\n<p>My forecast puts the <strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">Greens<\/span><\/strong> first with <strong>24%<\/strong> but it also puts <strong><span style=\"color: #00ccff;\">Reform<\/span><\/strong>, <strong><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">Lib Dems<\/span> <\/strong>&amp; <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Labour<\/strong><\/span> just behind with each on <strong>20%<\/strong> and the <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Conservative<\/span><\/strong> and <span style=\"color: #333333;\"><strong>Independent<\/strong> <\/span>candidates bringing up the rear.\u00a0 I am using a weighted average of four models of which <strong>2<\/strong> have <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Labour<\/strong><\/span> winning, <strong>1<\/strong> has the <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Greens<\/strong><\/span> winning and the <strong>4th<\/strong> model (with the highest weight) has <span style=\"color: #00ccff;\"><strong>Reform<\/strong><\/span> winning.\u00a0 That&#8217;s how unpredictable the election is and why we need a WECA specific opinion poll!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><em>This article is based on polls as of 7th April 2025.\u00a0 My updated forecast based on polls as of 26th April <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/weca-mayor-2025-election-forecast-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">can be found here<\/a>.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>My election forecast track record<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>This will be my third forecast of a local election.\u00a0 My previous two efforts were &#8211;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/weca-mayor-2021-election-forecast\/\">2021 WECA Mayor<\/a><\/strong> &#8211; I used a likelihood approach to work out if the Conservatives were more likely than not to retain the mayoralty.\u00a0 I decided the answer was <strong>Yes<\/strong> but it turned out be <strong>No<\/strong> by some margin.\u00a0 Whilst pondering my 2025 forecast, I realised I had made an error in my 2021 analysis.<\/li>\n<li><strong>2024 Bristol City Council<\/strong> &#8211; I correctly predicted the Greens would win the election in terms of votes and seats but fall short of a majority.\u00a0 I didn&#8217;t write a blog for this forecast which was based on the concept of battlegrounds so the links here will take you to mixture of X\/Twitter threads and articles in the local newspaper.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bristolpost.co.uk\/news\/bristol-news\/greens-win-bristol-city-council-9258306\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Method here<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MarriottNigel\/status\/1785760302094528866\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forecast here<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MarriottNigel\/status\/1786474901550891210\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Review here<\/a>,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For a complete list of all my election forecasts and how accurate they were, please open <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/my-election-forecasting-track-record\/\">my election forecast track record<\/a>.\u00a0 The graphic below summarises my forecasting performance for UK general elections.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-5754 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Election-Track-Record-general-elections-2010-to-2024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"747\" height=\"258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Election-Track-Record-general-elections-2010-to-2024.png 853w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Election-Track-Record-general-elections-2010-to-2024-300x104.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Election-Track-Record-general-elections-2010-to-2024-768x266.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Election-Track-Record-general-elections-2010-to-2024-450x156.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 747px) 100vw, 747px\" \/><\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>What is the West England Combined Authority?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/West_of_England_Combined_Authority\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">WECA combines three unitary authorities<\/a>, B&amp;NES (Bath &amp; North East Somerset), Bristol and S.Gloucs (South Gloucestershire).\u00a0 <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-6147 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Unitaries-2024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"340\" height=\"409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Unitaries-2024.png 520w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Unitaries-2024-250x300.png 250w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Unitaries-2024-291x350.png 291w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 340px) 100vw, 340px\" \/> As the map shows, the Bristol conurbation is dominant but Bath is by no means overawed.\u00a0 When WECA was formed, the unitary authority of North Somerset was also invited to join but they declined.\u00a0 Prior to the 2021 election, North Somerset changed their mind and have been in discussions since.\u00a0 As yet, there is no proposal for this to happen but all the candidates for the WECA mayor support North Somerset joining WECA.<\/p>\n<p>Between 2010 &amp; 2023, the local authorities were perfectly aligned with <strong>9<\/strong> parliamentary constituency boundaries.\u00a0 This changed in 2024 and is no longer the case.\u00a0 WECA boundaries now span <strong>9.4<\/strong> constituencies.\u00a0 The <strong>0.4 <\/strong>is the Frome &amp; East Somerset constituency which intrudes into B&amp;NES.\u00a0 I estimate <strong>39%<\/strong> of voters in this seat live in B&amp;NES and I have added that fraction to the other <strong>9<\/strong> seats when looking at WECA wide votes in the 2024 general election.<\/p>\n<p>For more information about the history of WECA and the region, have a look at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=dMLaBJTdy1c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">this informative Youtube clip<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">How has WECA voted since 2010?<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>I am forever struck by WECA&#8217;s political diversity.\u00a0 Over the <strong>9<\/strong> elections shown in the table below, <strong>5<\/strong> different parties have come first; The <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><strong>Lib Dems<\/strong><\/span> in 2010, <span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>UKIP<\/strong><\/span> in 2014, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Conservatives<\/strong><\/span> in 2015, 2017 &amp; 2019, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Labour<\/strong><\/span> in 2017, 2021 &amp; 2024 and finally the <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Greens<\/strong><\/span> in 2019.\u00a0 Whilst there have only been two mayoral elections in that period in 2017 &amp; 2021, I make a point of showing the other elections to emphasise the diversity of the area and this is going to be apparent in my 2025 forecast!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><em>Data Sources &#8211; my prime source for general &amp; EU elections is the House of Commons Research library sometimes supplemented with data from British Election Survey and the Electoral Commission.\u00a0 For local elections, I use Wikipedia which usually uses the local authority itself as the original data source.\u00a0 Note the table only shows votes for the first round of voting for the two mayoral elections.\u00a0 The top row of the table shows the election system (FPTP, SV, PR) in use for that election.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-6148 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Voting-History-2010-to-2025.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"581\" height=\"333\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Voting-History-2010-to-2025.png 706w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Voting-History-2010-to-2025-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Voting-History-2010-to-2025-450x258.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 581px) 100vw, 581px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>First, a word on <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>Reform.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0 The <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>REF*<\/strong><\/span> row in the above table is actually the total of all votes given to four iterations of what are often called populist right parties.\u00a0 In 2024, it was just <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>Reform<\/strong><\/span> but back in 2010, it was <span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>UKIP<\/strong><\/span> and the <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>BNP<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 In 2015 and 2017, it was just <span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>UKIP<\/strong><\/span> but in the 2019 EU election it was <strong><span style=\"color: #800080;\">UKIP<\/span><\/strong> and the <strong><span style=\"color: #00ccff;\">Brexit Party<\/span><\/strong>.\u00a0 In the general election of 2019 it was just the <span style=\"color: #00ccff;\"><strong>Brexit Party<\/strong> <\/span>and no populist right party stood in WECA in 2021.\u00a0 To make a local election forecast, I consider it justifiable to merge all such parties into the single <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>REF*<\/strong><\/span> total.\u00a0 Where their numbers are underlined, it indicates more than one party make up the total.<\/p>\n<p>A major change for the 2025 mayoral election is the election system itself.\u00a0 It will be First Past The Post (<span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>FPTP<\/strong><\/span>) as used in the <strong>5<\/strong> general elections shown.\u00a0 The two previous mayoral elections were under the Supplementary Vote (<span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>SV<\/strong><\/span>) system whilst the two EU elections used the d&#8217;Hondt variant of Proportional Representation (<span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>PR<\/strong><\/span>).\u00a0 Whilst the EU elections play no part in my forecast, I include them in the above table because they and the two SV elections were low turnout elections compared to the general election that preceded them.\u00a0 The turnout ratio values shown are the total number of votes in the EU or WECA election shown as a percentage of the total number of the votes in the preceding general election.\u00a0 For example, in the 2021 mayoral election, the total number of votes was <strong>50%<\/strong> of the turnout in the 2019 general election.\u00a0 If the turnout ratio in 2025 is also <strong>50%<\/strong> then we would expect a total of <strong>222,000<\/strong> votes cast.<\/p>\n<p>The table shows only <strong>4<\/strong> parties in the 2021 mayoral election.\u00a0 As discussed in the next section, there will be <strong>6<\/strong> candidates in 2025.\u00a0 In order to make a forecast, I have chosen to combined the <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>REF*<\/strong><\/span> and <span style=\"color: #333333;\"><strong>OTH<\/strong><\/span> rows into a <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong> <\/span>row as shown in the next table which shows share of total votes cast.\u00a0 This is the data I will use to make my 2025 forecast.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-6149 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Voting-History-2010-to-2025-shares.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"583\" height=\"171\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Voting-History-2010-to-2025-shares.png 706w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Voting-History-2010-to-2025-shares-300x88.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Voting-History-2010-to-2025-shares-450x132.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 583px) 100vw, 583px\" \/><\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Who is standing in 2025?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/cy5nx47g30ro\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">There are <strong>6<\/strong> candidates standing in the 2025 election<\/a>, up from <strong>4<\/strong> in 2021.\u00a0 The link takes you to the BBC website where there are further links to the personal statements of each candidate.\u00a0 The candidates represent the <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Conservative<\/strong><\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Labour<\/strong><\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><strong>Liberal Democrat<\/strong><\/span>, <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Green<\/strong><\/span> and <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>Reform<\/strong><\/span> parties plus an <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Independent<\/strong><\/span> who is a former Labour councillor.\u00a0 Reform and Independents did not stand in 2021 but in 2017, there was a <strong><span style=\"color: #800080;\">UKIP<\/span><\/strong> and an <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>Independent<\/strong><\/span> candidate who was also ex-Labour.<\/p>\n<p>For transparency, I am a registered voter living in B&amp;NES.\u00a0 A personal bugbear I have with local elections in recent years is the increasing failure of parties to put their election literature through my letter box.\u00a0 I take the view that if you can&#8217;t be bothered to seek my vote, why should I bother to give you my vote?\u00a0 So far, I have seen the Conservative candidate on Facebook and the Reform candidate on X\/Twitter but nothing otherwise from any other candidate.\u00a0 Yes I know what their manifestos are from the links in the BBC article but without this, I would be voting with no idea of what their platforms are.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t think this is healthy for democracy so my plea to the candidates is get out there and prove to me you want my vote!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><em>Update 15th April 2025 &#8211; The BBC reports <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/cz01y129j7po\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">all voters in WECA will soon be receiving a booklet with manifestos from all of the candidates<\/a> so that might explain the lack of campaigning so far.\u00a0 My first reaction is this doesn&#8217;t tackle my point.\u00a0 Whilst I can see the usefulness of this in raising awareness of local elections (often low turnout) among voters, it feels like the easy way out for the candidates.\u00a0 I will still be judging the candidates on whether it appears this is all they are prepared to do when it comes to campaigning or will they also be working their socks off to get my vote?<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">What do the latest polls say?<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>As far as I am aware, there has not been any polling specifically of WECA for this election.\u00a0 This means I will need to use national opinion polls at the Great Britain level to make my forecast.\u00a0 These <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/uk-general-elections-how-accurate-are-the-polls-updated-with-ge2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">do not have a great record in recent general elections<\/a> so whether they work better for local elections is uncertain.\u00a0 In the table below, the figures for the <strong>5<\/strong> general elections are actual vote shares for Great Britain but for the other <strong>4<\/strong> elections and for 2025, they are averages of the <strong>9<\/strong> polls immediately preceding the election.\u00a0 Whilst I do show <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>REF*<\/strong><\/span> and <strong><span style=\"color: #333333;\">OTH<\/span><\/strong> separately in this table, it will be the <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> row I will use in my forecast initially.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-6154 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Polling-History-2010-to-2025-shares-B.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"705\" height=\"252\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Polling-History-2010-to-2025-shares-B.png 822w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Polling-History-2010-to-2025-shares-B-300x107.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Polling-History-2010-to-2025-shares-B-768x275.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-Polling-History-2010-to-2025-shares-B-450x161.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 705px) 100vw, 705px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For 2025, I show two versions of the latest polls on the far right of the table.\u00a0 The <strong>INCL<\/strong> column is calculated in the same way as the figures shown for 2014 EU, 2017 mayoral, 2019 EU and 2021 mayoral elections.\u00a0 However, the 2024 general election saw a substantial drop in voter turnout from <strong>67%<\/strong> to under <strong>60%<\/strong>.\u00a0 The latest polls assume if a 2024 non-voter say they will vote in the next general election, they will do so.\u00a0 That might be true for a general election but I struggle to believe those non-voters from last year will vote in local elections this year.<\/p>\n<p>Since the start of 2025, I have been collecting the crossbreaks from recent polls for those people who say they did vote in 2024.\u00a0 If polls are confined to this group only, you end up with the <strong>EXCL<\/strong> column.\u00a0 The main difference between the <strong>INCL<\/strong> &amp; <strong>EXCL<\/strong> numbers are for Labour and Reform.\u00a0 Under <strong>EXCL,<\/strong> Labour stand <strong>2<\/strong> points better and Reform <strong>2<\/strong> points worse than <strong>INCL<\/strong>.\u00a0 This is because around <strong>50%<\/strong> of non-voters say they will vote Reform whereas only <strong>5%<\/strong> of such voters say they will vote Labour.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/findoutnow.co.uk\/blog\/voting-intention-26th-march-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Find Out Now<\/strong> is the only pollster<\/a> who explicitly break out GE24 non-voters (which I denote as <strong>DNV24<\/strong>) as a separate crossbreak but my analysis of available crossbreaks from other pollsters show they must be seeing something similar in their numbers.<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>4 Models to turn polls into predictions<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>My four models for predicting the 2025 WECA mayoral election are &#8211;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>GE24-Diff<em>-Excl<\/em><\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span>: Change since 2024 general election using differential swing based on <strong>EXCL<\/strong> polling data.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>GE24-Ratio<em>-Excl<\/em><\/strong><\/span> : Change since 2024 general election using ratio swing based on <strong>EXCL<\/strong> polling data.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>WM21-Diff<em>-Incl<\/em><\/strong> <\/span>: Change since 2021 mayoral election using differential swing based on <strong>INCL<\/strong> polling data.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>WM21-Ratio<em>-Incl<\/em><\/strong> <\/span>: Change since 2021 mayoral election using ratio swing based on <strong>INCL<\/strong> polling data.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>As will become apparent, the order listed is also the weights I will use when I average across the four models to arrive at my forecast i.e. least weight to <strong>GE24-Diff-Excl<\/strong>, most weight to <strong>WM21-Ratio-Incl<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>These models are permutations of two choices I need to make.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Should I use the change in the polls since <strong>the last general election in 2024<\/strong> (GE24) or since <strong>the last WECA mayoral election in 2021<\/strong> (WM21)?<\/li>\n<li>Should I measure the change in the polls using <strong>Diff<\/strong>erential swing or <strong>Ratio<\/strong> swing?\n<ul>\n<li>I explain the difference later on but election analysts I follow on social media agree ratio swing was the best option for predicting outcomes in the 2024 general election instead of the usual differential swing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>A related question to the first question is whether I should use latest polling data which <em><strong>Incl<\/strong><\/em>udes or <strong><em>Excl<\/em><\/strong>udes 2024 non-voters as discussed in the last section?\u00a0 I&#8217;ve decided to exclude them when looking at changes since GE24.\u00a0 This is because I do not believe 2024 non-voters will turnout in 2025 in an election which normally sees half the turnout of general elections.\u00a0 However, if I look at changes since WM21, I will include those non-voters.\u00a0 This is because I do not have the data to exclude non-voters from the 2021 polls so in order to make a like for like comparison, I need to include the non-voters in my 2025 polling data.<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">What do the 4 models predict for 2025?<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>The predicted vote shares for each of my <strong>4<\/strong> models are shown in the table here.\u00a0 For now, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-6155 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-4-Models-2025.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"235\" height=\"179\" \/>I predict the combined vote of the Reform and Independent candidates as <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> because neither party stood in 2021.\u00a0 How did I arrive at these numbers?<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s start with the two differential swing models which are the simplest.\u00a0 For the <strong>GE24-Diff-Excl<\/strong> model, all I&#8217;ve done is add the change in vote share for each party as indicated by the national polls since the 2024 general election to that party&#8217;s vote share in WECA in 2024.\u00a0 For example, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Labour<\/strong><\/span>&#8216;s share of the vote in the 2024 general election in the WECA area was <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>35.2%<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 Since then, polls show the Labour vote nationally is down <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>8.5%<\/strong><\/span> if I exclude 2024 non-voters.\u00a0 Therefore the predicted Labour vote share in WECA for 2025 using the <strong>GE24-Diff-Excl<\/strong> model is <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>26.7% <\/strong><\/span>(<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">= 35.2% &#8211; 8.5%<\/span>).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-6156\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Diff-Swings.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"747\" height=\"137\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Diff-Swings.png 845w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Diff-Swings-300x55.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Diff-Swings-768x141.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Diff-Swings-450x83.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 747px) 100vw, 747px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The same logic applies to <strong>WM21-Diff-Incl.<\/strong>\u00a0 For example, the <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Conservatives<\/strong><\/span> vote in the first round of the 2021 WECA mayoral election was <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">28.6%<\/span>.<\/strong>\u00a0 Since then, the Conservative vote share nationally in the polls if I include 2024 non-voters is down <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>19.1%<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 This results in an estimated Conservative vote share of <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>9.6%<\/strong><\/span> (<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">= 28.6% &#8211; 19.1%<\/span>) in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>The two ratio models work differently.\u00a0 Instead of adding or subtracting the change in vote share since the last election, I multiply by the ratio of the latest national polls to the vote shares in the last national election for each party.\u00a0 This will result in vote shares that do not add up to <strong>100%<\/strong> across all the parties.\u00a0 Therefore, I need to normalise the vote shares so that they do add to <strong>100%<\/strong>.\u00a0 The two ratio models are shown below.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-6159\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Ratio-Swings.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"790\" height=\"132\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Ratio-Swings.png 927w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Ratio-Swings-300x50.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Ratio-Swings-768x128.png 768w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Ratio-Swings-450x75.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 790px) 100vw, 790px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I will explain the <strong>GE24-Ratio-Excl<\/strong> model first starting with the <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Greens<\/strong><\/span>&#8216; vote share across WECA in the 2024 general election which was <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>18.7%<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 The latest national polls excluding 2024 non-voters show the Greens on <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>8.9%<\/strong><\/span> which is <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>1.34<\/strong><\/span> times the Green&#8217;s national vote share of<span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong> 6.9%<\/strong><\/span> in the 2024 general election.\u00a0 If I now multiply the Green&#8217;s WECA vote share in 2024 of <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>18.7%<\/strong><\/span> by <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>1.34<\/strong><\/span>, I end up with <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>25.1%<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 When I repeat this for all the parties though, the sum of the estimated vote shares will not be 100% but <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>101.2%<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 Therefore I need to divide <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>25.1%<\/strong><\/span> by <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>1.012<\/strong><\/span> to end up with my final estimate for the <strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">Green<\/span><\/strong>&#8216;s WECA vote share in 2025 of <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>24.8%<\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>The above table also shows the calculation for the <strong>WM21-Ratio-Incl<\/strong> model.\u00a0 However, there is a problem here.\u00a0 Since there were only <strong>4<\/strong> candidates in 2021, the <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> row was <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>0%<\/strong><\/span> in 2021.\u00a0 Any multiplication of zero will always give zero for <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> in 2025.\u00a0 Yet in the table I showed at the start of this section, I estimated <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> at <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>34%<\/strong><\/span> so how did I get around this issue?<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>How did the 4 models perform in 2021?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>I first asked myself whether it was necessary to resolve this issue.\u00a0 The question I asked was how did these models perform in the 2021 WECA mayoral election?\u00a0 If the <strong>WM17-Ratio-Incl<\/strong> (as it would have been back then) model had performed badly, I wouldn&#8217;t bother using it in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>It turned out <strong>WM17-Ratio-Incl<\/strong> was the best predictor by far of the 2021 mayoral election.\u00a0 The table here shows<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-6160 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-4-Models-2021-errors.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"215\" height=\"160\" \/> the forecasting errors for each of the <strong>4<\/strong> models where the forecasting error is the difference between the actual vote share and the predicted vote share.\u00a0 The standard deviation of these errors allow me to rank the accuracy of the <strong>4<\/strong> models and the last model wins out easily with a maximum error of <strong>2<\/strong> points for the eventual winner, the Labour candidate.\u00a0 I&#8217;ve detailed the full calculation below for the <strong>WM17-Ratio-Incl<\/strong> model.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-6157\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2021-FC-Model-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"538\" height=\"141\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2021-FC-Model-4.png 591w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2021-FC-Model-4-300x79.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2021-FC-Model-4-450x118.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 538px) 100vw, 538px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>There is no multiplication of zero in this election because 2017 saw a UKIP and an ex-Labour Independent candidates making up the <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> row.\u00a0 Together they got <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>19.1%<\/strong><\/span> of the vote in 2017 but by 2021, the combined national vote share of Reform (replacing UKIP) and Other parties was <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>0.84<\/strong><\/span> (=10.2%\/12.2%) times the national vote share of UKIP plus Others in 2017.\u00a0 That initially results in <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>16.1%<\/strong><\/span> for <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> but this is then normalised to <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>15.6%<\/strong><\/span> by dividing by <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>1.031<\/strong><\/span> since the middle column sums to <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>103.1%<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 This results in what the forecast would have been had at least one other candidate stood in 2021 as shown by the lightly red shaded column.<\/p>\n<p>To get to a four<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>candidate forecast, I need to reallocate the estimated <strong>15.6%<\/strong> vote share for <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> to the other four parties.\u00a0 The simplest way was to reallocate in proportion to their estimated vote shares when more than four candidates stand.\u00a0 I can do this by dividing the four parties&#8217; red shaded vote shares by <span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>0.844<\/strong><\/span> since the sum of their red shaded vote shares is <span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>84.4%<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 This is what gives the final forecast for the 2021 WECA mayoral election.<\/p>\n<p>The low errors are frankly remarkable.\u00a0 This is why I said at the start that I now realise I made an error in my 2021 WECA mayor forecast.\u00a0 I never considered ratio swing back then and missed the opportunity to call the election properly.\u00a0 What&#8217;s even more remarkable is that the remaining errors which are very small can be explained.\u00a0 Both the Conservatives and Labour in 2021 are slightly underestimated and the Liberal Democrats and Greens are slightly overestimated.\u00a0 Recall the final forecast proportionately reallocated the <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>15.6% OTH**<\/strong><\/span> vote share to these four parties.\u00a0 But <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> in 2017 were those voting for UKIP and an ex-Labour Independent.\u00a0 It does not then surprise me that these voters would be more likely to redistribute themselves to the Labour and Conservative candidates and less likely to the Green and Lib Dem candidates.<\/p>\n<p>In order to get a forecast for <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> in 2025, what I did was to redo the ratio swing but replace the 2021 WECA vote shares with the lightly red shaded vote shares estimated in the table above.\u00a0 This is my estimate of what the vote shares would have been in 2021 had more than four candidates stood in 2021.\u00a0 This results in the calculation shown in the table below.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-6158\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Model-4-Alt.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"421\" height=\"143\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Model-4-Alt.png 456w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Model-4-Alt-300x102.png 300w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Model-4-Alt-450x153.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 421px) 100vw, 421px\" \/><\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Who will win the 2025 Mayoral Election?<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>The last step I need to undertake before arriving at my forecast is to decide how I will split my estimated<span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong> OTH**<\/strong><\/span> between the Reform and Independent (ex-Labour) candidates.\u00a0 This is a similar setup to the 2017 mayoral election when the Independent candidate took almost <strong>80%<\/strong> of the <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> votes.\u00a0 This time Reform are notably stronger in the polls than UKIP ever were in 2017 and they have chosen a candidate Aaron Banks who I think has greater name recognition than the independent candidate.\u00a0 I decided to assume <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>80%<\/strong><\/span> of <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>OTH**<\/strong><\/span> votes will go to <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>Reform<\/strong><\/span> in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>This results in my forecast as shown in the table.\u00a0 Due to the clear difference<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-6164 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Official-250411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"326\" height=\"241\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Official-250411.png 422w, https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/WECA-2025-FC-Official-250411-300x222.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 326px) 100vw, 326px\" \/> in performance of these models in the last mayoral election in 2021, I decided to make my final forecast a weighted average of the four models.\u00a0 The <strong>4<\/strong> model forecasts are shown from left to right in ascending order of weights with the <strong>WM21-Ratio-Incl<\/strong> model getting <strong>4<\/strong> times the weight of the <strong>GE24-Diff-Excl<\/strong> model.<\/p>\n<p>On average, the <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Greens<\/strong> <\/span>come first with <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>24%<\/strong><\/span> but <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Labour<\/span><\/strong>, <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><strong>Lib Dems<\/strong><\/span> and <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>Reform<\/strong><\/span> are all on or around <strong>20%<\/strong> which is nothing in the grand scheme of things.\u00a0 What I will say is the Green and Lib Dem estimates are fairly stable across the <strong>4<\/strong> models unlike the Labour, Conservative and Reform parties which vary a lot between the models.\u00a0 The <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Conservatives<\/strong><\/span> are behind in all models but <strong>I am happy to call this a 5-way marginal with the Greens most likely to win and Conservatives least likely<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>What could go wrong with such a forecast?!<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Where my forecast could go wrong<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>A lot.\u00a0 I&#8217;m going to go through party by party and list all the ways they could be under or over estimated.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s start with the <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Conservatives.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0 I think my forecast of <strong>12%<\/strong> on average is much more likely to be an underestimate than an overestimate.\u00a0 One of the assumptions I&#8217;ve made with the two GE24 models is that 2024 non-voters will not vote in 2025.\u00a0 I think this is a good assumption to make but if it is wrong, it will be Conservative non-voters who are most likely to vote in 2025.\u00a0 I say this because the collapse in the Conservative vote in the general election was known to be driven in part by Conservative voters staying at home.\u00a0 Their motivation may have been driven by apathy in respect of the party in Westminster but that doesn&#8217;t automatically mean it will extend to all local elections.\u00a0 A good local candidate might still be able to get their (absent last year) vote out.<\/p>\n<p>Moving onto the <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><strong>Lib Dems<\/strong><\/span>, polls published in the last few days look like they are showing a bounce for the Lib Dems.\u00a0 At the moment, they are not included in my latest polls for 2025.\u00a0 When I update my forecast towards the end of April, this bounce if sustained will feed through and give the Lib Dems a boost.<\/p>\n<p>What about <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Labour<\/strong><\/span>?\u00a0 They are in the same boat as the Conservatives in terms of model uncertainty but start as the incumbent.\u00a0 I&#8217;ve not looked at the latest polls in depth but where they show a Lib Dem bounce, this is at the expense of Labour.\u00a0 The second factor is that the current WECA mayor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/czx48gq0y77o\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dan Norris has recently been arrested and charged with rape and sexual assault<\/a>.\u00a0 He was never seeking re-election in the first place but could there still be a local reaction against Labour that harms their current candidate?\u00a0 I think my forecast for Labour is more likely to be an overestimate than an underestimate.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">Reform<\/span><\/strong> is the hardest party to forecast.\u00a0 They didn&#8217;t stand in 2021 and so have no obvious base to build on.\u00a0 On the other hand, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MarriottNigel\/status\/1911357775340249570\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">they are polling comfortably at <strong>25%<\/strong> in the national polls<\/a> and the local elections across England is a real opportunity to show they are now a political force.\u00a0 They&#8217;ve chosen a candidate with name recognition (as far I am concerned) and depending how he campaigns, he must have a chance in a 5-way marginal.\u00a0 Whilst one of my models have them winning, it has to be remembered my model did not predict Reform directly.\u00a0 Instead, it predicted a combined Reform + Independent and then split that total <strong>80:20<\/strong>.\u00a0 That split is a pure finger in the air assumption and if the Independent candidate does better than I expect, Reform won&#8217;t be winning.<\/p>\n<p>Lastly, we come to the <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Greens<\/strong><\/span> who are the favourite according to my models at the moment.\u00a0 Until now, they have always been in opposition.\u00a0 But last year, they took minority control of Bristol City Council.\u00a0 That means Bristol voters have had a year of experiencing life under Green rule.\u00a0 Has that made them more or less favourable?\u00a0 I have no intelligence on the ground personally but I think as a general rule in these times, incumbent ruling parties find it hard to sustain support.\u00a0 Therefore there is a risk my models are overestimating the Greens.<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>My Plea to Pollsters<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>Please poll WECA!\u00a0 I truly think we have a near 5-way marginal the likes of which have never been in English elections before.\u00a0 Why wouldn&#8217;t you want to poll it?<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>Other forecasts of the 2025 WECA mayoral election<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>In the absence of any polls at present, here is a list of other forecasts I have seen in the media and on social media for this election.\u00a0 I will update this list if I see new forecasts elsewhere.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/predictorelect\/status\/1910925897546268783\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">GRN 25%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">LAB 24%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">LD 22%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">CON 14%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">REF 13%<\/span>, IND 3%<\/strong><\/a> on 12th April by <strong>Elections Predictor &amp; Political Commentary<\/strong> on X\/Twitter.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/yougov.co.uk\/politics\/articles\/52069-combined-authority-mayoral-elections-2025-where-does-voting-intention-stand?utm_source=website_article&amp;utm_medium=twitter&amp;utm_campaign=52069\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">GRN 27%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">LAB 23%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">REF 18%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">CON 17%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">LD 13%<\/span>, IND 2%<\/strong><\/a> for 9th-23rd April by <strong>YouGov<\/strong>, the first published poll for WECA.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.moreincommon.org.uk\/our-work\/research-unlisted\/west-of-england-combined-authority\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">LAB 23%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">CON 21%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">REF 18%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #008000;\">GRN 18%<\/span>, <span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">LD 15%<\/span>, IND 5%<\/strong><\/a> for 16th-21st April by <strong>MoreInCommon<\/strong>, the second published poll for WECA.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=dMLaBJTdy1c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Democracy Briefing Podcast<\/strong> &#8211; Overview of the WECA Mayor Election<\/a> &#8211; This is not a forecast as such but it does review the political history of WECA and concludes the election is likely to be a 5-way marginal.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/c4g2d6881rro\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">A BBC report on the WECA election<\/a> &#8211; no forecast given but it gives some backdrop to the election.\u00a0 Note the first half covers another election, WECA is reported in the second half of the article.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.itv.com\/news\/westcountry\/2025-04-24\/west-of-england-mayoral-election-all-you-need-to-know\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">An ITV report on the WECA election<\/a> &#8211; again no forecast given but you do get to hear from each of the candidates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">**Updated forecast as of 26th April 2025**<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>I have published <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/weca-mayor-2025-election-forecast-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">my updated forecast here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">&#8212; Would you like to comment on this article? &#8212;-<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>Please do leave your comments on this <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MarriottNigel\/status\/1911695737806586117\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>X\/Twitter<\/strong><\/span> thread<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">&#8212; Subscribe to my newsletter to receive more articles like this one! &#8212;-<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>If you would like to receive notifications from me of news, articles and offers relating to Elections &amp; Polling, please <span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #008000;\" href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/subscribe-to-our-newsletter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">click here to go to my Newsletter Subscription page<\/a><\/strong><\/span> and tick the Elections and\/or Surveys category and other categories that may be of interest to you.\u00a0 You will be able to unsubscribe at anytime.<\/p>\n<h5><strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">&#8212; Read some of my other blog posts on elections &#8212;<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>More posts can be found by clicking on the <a href=\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/category\/elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elections<\/a> tab at the top of your screen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast.\u00a0 My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen in England before.\u00a0 Why no-one has polled WECA is a mystery because this is shaping [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6164,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,6,3],"tags":[232,229,228,214,338,225,213,218,224,210,231,230,233,227,226],"class_list":{"0":"post-6143","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-elections","8":"category-forecasting","9":"category-polling","10":"tag-bnes","11":"tag-bath","12":"tag-bristol","13":"tag-conservative","14":"tag-fptp","15":"tag-greens","16":"tag-labour","17":"tag-lib-dems","18":"tag-local-election","19":"tag-majority","20":"tag-metro-mayor","21":"tag-south-gloucs","22":"tag-supplementary-vote","23":"tag-weca","24":"tag-west-england","25":"entry","26":"override"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6143","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6143"}],"version-history":[{"count":35,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6143\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6285,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6143\/revisions\/6285"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6164"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6143"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6143"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6143"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}