{"id":621,"date":"2017-06-06T18:41:06","date_gmt":"2017-06-06T17:41:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=621"},"modified":"2020-03-09T20:33:51","modified_gmt":"2020-03-09T20:33:51","slug":"uk-general-election-2017-6-everything-you-need-to-know-in-one-place","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/uk-general-election-2017-6-everything-you-need-to-know-in-one-place\/","title":{"rendered":"UK General Election 2017 #6 – Everything you need to know in one place!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Over the last 6 weeks I have been making many posts about what is happening and what will happen in 2017.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>I thought it would be helpful to have one post which brings everything together in one place.<\/span><\/p>\n

My official 2017 election forecast<\/a> summarises what I expect the results to be on June 8<\/span>th<\/span><\/sup> 2017.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>This post also includes a link to a spreadsheet containing my seat by seat forecasts which can be found at the bottom of that post.\u00a0 (EDIT: Weds 7th June @1030AM<\/strong>.\u00a0 If you downloaded the spreadsheet before 1030 on Weds 7th June, please visit the link and download the spreadsheet again.\u00a0 The link explains why)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

To accompany my forecast, I have created 4 youtube video clips where I dig into the details of how I arrived at that forecast.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Part 1 (22 mins) looks at what the polls are saying <\/a>\u00a0<\/span>and how pollsters have split themselves into 2 distinct groups.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>The question is which one to believe?<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Part 2 (15 mins) examines whether 2017 will be a realignment election <\/a>like what happened in Scotland in 2015 or a politics as usual like England & Wales in 2015.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. Part 3 (37 mins) explains how I made my forecast for each seat<\/a> and goes into some depth.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>This is more technical but I explain how I accounted for the Brexit factor in this election.<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. Part 4 (20 mins) shows my forecast<\/a>, where the parties will gain and lose and places the 2017 election in historical context.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    If you prefer to read the slides in my youtube series rather than listen to me (it\u2019s not boring, honest!) then you can download them with this link.\u00a0 I have corrected a couple of errors on the last slide of\u00a0part 4 and a couple of typos elsewhere.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    My Final Forecast GE17<\/a><\/p>\n

    To arrive at my forecast, I analysed a lot of data and formed\u00a0many conclusions which shaped my thinking.<\/span>\u00a0 <\/span>The following posts explain the key points.<\/span><\/p>\n