{"id":626,"date":"2017-06-09T07:35:06","date_gmt":"2017-06-09T06:35:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=626"},"modified":"2017-06-09T07:51:23","modified_gmt":"2017-06-09T06:51:23","slug":"uk-general-election-2017-results-1-my-election-night-commentary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/uk-general-election-2017-results-1-my-election-night-commentary\/","title":{"rendered":"UK General Election 2017 Results #1 – My Election Night Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

Friday 07:35<\/strong> – I’ve just woken up to the result that we have a hung parliament which is miles away from my prediction.\u00a0 Clearly I need to conduct a post-mortem of my model but\u00a0I did state in my first chart of this post (see bottom of post) that a hung parliament would occur if the CON-LAB lead was under 3%.\u00a0 Sure enough that is the outcome with the BBC currently saying the CON-LAB lead is 2.3%.\u00a0 What it also means that we have another epic polling error as the average of all polls in the week before the election showed a CON-LAB lead of 7.5%.\u00a0 Unlike 2015 when all pollsters got it, congratulations must go to Survation who called it spot on.<\/p>\n

I am sure we will have a wave of people claiming to have predicted this error.\u00a0 As far as I am concerned a valid prediction is only one made in public in advance.\u00a0 Such a prediction would also need to explain why they expected a polling error on the scale shown in the chart.<\/p>\n

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The last time such an error occurred was 1983 and the error is on the scale of 1951!\u00a0 In fact the error is even more remarkable if you look at the 3 main parties.<\/p>\n

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Another polling post mortem beckons but this election will go down in history.<\/p>\n

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Friday 02:24<\/strong> <\/span>– Been crunching a lot of numbers and so far the polls appear to be error again.\u00a0 At first glance, CON-LAB lead is 1.5pts\u00a0nationally compared to my expected 9.5pt lead for CON and the polls 7%.\u00a0 Turnout looks like being 69\/70%.\u00a0 If this is right, then we have another historical polling error.\u00a0 My prediction now is that the Conservatives will have a small majority similar to where they are at the moment.<\/p>\n

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Friday 00:48<\/strong> <\/span>– First prediction error with Labour holding Workington instead of it being a CON Gain.<\/p>\n

Friday 00:1<\/strong>8 – Ok crunching first 6 seats, can make the following observations.\u00a0 My nURS model was more or less spot on in the North East with the exception of Newcastle East where turnout was much higher.\u00a0 My sense at the moment is that turnout will be 70% not 68% as I expected and the CON-LAB national lead will be 7.5% as the polls say rather than my 9.5%.\u00a0 BUT if I rerun my forecast with these adjustments my seat forecast is still around 370 for the Conservatives.<\/p>\n

Thursday 23:50<\/strong> <\/span>– nURS again bang on with Sunderland Central.\u00a0 If you have downloaded by s\/sheet from my official forecast, you can see which party\u00a0nURS expects to win in each.\u00a0 Those who emailed me for the more detailed s\/sheet will be able to verify what I am saying.<\/p>\n

Thursday 23:35<\/strong><\/span> – Remember also my implied assumption that turnout will be 2% higher than 2015 which came from a 2:1 weighting between Modellers & Self-Reporters when estimating CON-LAB lead.\u00a0 First two seats would imply turnout up 4%.\u00a0 If this also means the weighting should have been 1:2 then it also implies the polls are more or less bang on with the CON-LAB lead.\u00a0 Very early days though.<\/p>\n

Thursday 23:21<\/strong> <\/span>– Remember that my final model<\/a> is an average of two models, nURS and eu16R.\u00a0 One thing I am looking for throughout the night is if one model is doing better than the other.\u00a0 For the first two seats, nURS got the LAB-CON lead in both seats more or less bang on.\u00a0 EU16R way out.\u00a0 My nURS only model currently predicts 370 Conservative seats.\u00a0 Still a long way to go!<\/p>\n

Thursday 22:12<\/strong> <\/span>– Newcastle are competing to be first to declare with Sunderland so here are my expectations for the 3 Newcastle seats<\/p>\n

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  1. Newcastle Central (RM) – LAB hold, LAB-CON lead to narrow from 36pts to 32pts<\/li>\n
  2. Newcastle East (RM) – LAB hold, LAB-CON lead to widen from 32pts to 33pts<\/li>\n
  3. Newcastle North\u00a0(LV) – LAB hold, LAB-CON lead to narrow from 23pts to 16pts<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Thursday 22:04<\/strong><\/span> – Well this is going to be interesting!\u00a0 I will be interested to see the projected national share but obviously a long way away at the moment.\u00a0 SNP projected to lose a lot of seats but who are they going to.<\/p>\n

    Thursday 21:22<\/strong><\/span> – I’ve checked the BBC coverage of 2015<\/a> to find the first 5 seats that declared then.\u00a0 Assuming the same 5 seats declare first, then here are my predictions.\u00a0 I am particularly focused on the CON-LAB lead.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Houghton & Sunderland S (LV)\u00a0– LAB hold, LAB-CON lead to narrow from 37pts to 19pts<\/li>\n
    2. Washington & Sunderland W (LV)\u00a0– LAB hold, LAB-CON lead to narrow from 35pts to 20pts<\/li>\n
    3. Sunderland Central (LV) – LAB hold, LAB-CON lead to narrow from 27pts to 15pts<\/li>\n
    4. Swindon North (LV) – CON hold, CON-LAB lead to narrow from 23pts to 21pts<\/li>\n
    5. Putney (RM) – CON hold, CON-LAB lead to narrow from 24pts to 2pts!<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      These are a good set of seats to begin with,\u00a03 leave seats in the North where I expect the Tories to\u00a0close the gap on Labour and then 2 seats in the South where I\u00a0expect the reverse to happen.\u00a0 Putney will be particularly fascinating as my model says Labour has a chance of taking it as it is strongly Remain.<\/p>\n

      Thursday 20:34<\/strong><\/span> – The exit poll will be announced at 2200 and now is a good time for me to define “success” with my predictions.\u00a0 As the results come, I need to have an idea if my prediction is on track or is drifting away.\u00a0 I think it makes sense to focus on the expected number of seats that the Conservatives will win and how close the final result will be to my prediction of 375 seats so here is where my thoughts are.<\/p>\n