<\/p>\n
15 Years of Voting Intention Polls<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\nThe story of the polls since January 2010 can be seen in the chart below.\u00a0 I track the 9-poll rolling average<\/strong> of all polls published as recorded by Mark Pack who has systematically recorded every opinion poll published since 1945<\/a>.\u00a0 The vertical bar for each month shows by how much the 9-poll rolling average has varied in each month.\u00a0 The line for Reform includes its predecessors of UKIP and the Brexit Party.\u00a0 Polls only started tracking UKIP and the Greens regularly after the 2012 local elections hence why I start the chart just before the 2010 general election.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/PollTracker-G1-MT-2025-06.png\")
<\/p>\n
The change in the fortunes of the parties since the end of June last year (4 days before the election) is extraordinary.\u00a0 The list below is the 9-poll rolling average as of 30th June 2025<\/strong> with changes since 30th June 2024<\/strong> shown in brackets split into two time periods.\u00a0 The first period (JD<\/strong>) is the change between the end of June 2024 and the end of December 2024, the second period (DJ<\/strong>) is the change between the end of December 2024 and the end of June 2025.<\/p>\n\n- REF 28.1% <\/strong>(JD +5.8%, DJ +6.7% )<\/span><\/li>\n
- LAB 23.8% <\/strong>(JD -11.3%, DJ -4.2%)<\/span><\/li>\n
- CON 18.1% <\/strong>(JD +2.1%, DJ -6.3%)<\/span><\/li>\n
- LDM 14.0% <\/strong>(JD +0.9%, DJ +2.2% )<\/span><\/li>\n
- GRN\u00a0 \u00a09.3% <\/strong>(JD +2.4%, DJ +1.2% )<\/span><\/li>\n
- OTH\u00a0 \u00a06.7%<\/strong> (JD +0.1%, DJ +0.4%)<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Bear in mind these are changes in the polls over 12 months, not since the election last year.\u00a0 The track record of polls is not great<\/a> and the error in the Conservative lead over Labour in last year’s general election was the 2nd largest on record.\u00a0 That being said, the above figures & chart speak of widespread political fragmentation and major voter churn.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
Voting Intentions are stable in 2025<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\nBut what if I redo the list as below…<\/p>\n
\n- CON<\/span>+<\/span>REF 46.2% <\/span><\/strong>(JD +7.9%, DJ +0.3%)<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
- LAB+<\/span>LDM<\/span>+<\/span>GRN<\/span> 47.1% <\/span><\/strong>(JD -8.0%, DJ -0.8% )<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
- OTH\u00a0 \u00a06.7%<\/strong> (JD +0.1%, DJ +0.4%)<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
… and replot the chart accordingly?<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/PollTracker-G1-MT-2025-06-B-ALT.png\")
<\/p>\n
If I label the sum of CON<\/span>+REF<\/span><\/strong> as The Right<\/strong><\/span> and the sum of LAB<\/span>+LDM<\/span>+GRN<\/span><\/strong> as The Left<\/strong><\/span>, I don’t think I would be misdescribing British politics.\u00a0 Over the last 6 months, the standard deviation of the 9-poll rolling averages for the Right & Left separately has been under 1%<\/strong>.\u00a0 The last time that happened was in the 6 months prior to the 2015 general election.<\/p>\nThis is why I say voting intentions have been remarkably stable so far in 2025 when viewed through the lens of The Right<\/strong> <\/span>and The Left<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 All the turbulence between the parties in 2025 has been taking place within the two wings of British politics.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
The 40-55 Channel<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\nThis is not the first time I’ve talked about The Right<\/strong> <\/span>and The Left<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 I used the same concept to make my successful forecast of the 2019 general election<\/a> and wrote about this in more depth in May 2021<\/a>.\u00a0 The difference back then is I used the descriptors Leave Alliance (LVA)<\/strong><\/span> and Remain Consortium (RMC)<\/span><\/strong> instead.\u00a0 I think Brexit related descriptors are now outdated but the underlying concept is not.\u00a0 If I zoom in on the chart above, I can identify the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> which has been the main determinant of British politics for the last 15 years.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/PollTracker-G1-MT-2025-06-B.png\")
<\/p>\n
The Right<\/strong> <\/span>and The Left<\/strong><\/span> vote shares have fluctuated between 40%<\/strong> and 55%<\/strong> in voting intention polls since 2012 (when polls started tracking UKIP and the Greens) and more likely since the 2010 general election.\u00a0 This is what I call the 40-55 Channel<\/strong>.<\/p>\nFor a 30<\/strong> month period between January 2022<\/strong> and June 2024<\/strong>, it looked like the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> had been consigned to history.\u00a0 However, the general election last year showed it had not gone away and voting intention trends since has only strengthened its relevance.\u00a0 I predict the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> will continue to define British politics all the way through to the next election.\u00a0 Further turbulence and drama within The Right<\/strong> <\/span>and The Left<\/strong><\/span> is likely to be the norm for the next few years but I think the top line pattern of the last 15 years is here to stay.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
The 30 Months Blackout<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\nWhy did the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> disappear for the 2nd half of the 2019 to 2024 parliament?\u00a0 My explanation is two names; Boris Johnson<\/span><\/strong> and Nigel Farage<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\nAfter the 2019 general election and with Britain’s exit from the European Union secured, Nigel Farage chose to step away from British politics.\u00a0 The Brexit Party mutated into Reform and Richard Tice took over the leadership though Farage continued to own 53% of the party’s shares<\/a>.\u00a0 Throughout 2020 & 2021, Reform averaged 3%<\/strong> in the polls and Tice’s profile in British politics was low.<\/p>\nBoris Johnson was the undisputed leader of the Right to the extent the Conservatives won Hartlepool from Labour in May 2021<\/a> in a by-election.\u00a0 For any government to make a gain from the opposition in a by-election is extraordinary, to do so in what had always been part of Labour’s Red Wall was unprecedented.\u00a0 However, by the end of 2021, Johnson was blamed for the loss of the safe Conservative seat North Shropshire due to the Owen Patterson affair<\/a>.\u00a0 That began 8 months of political turbulence within the Conservative government which ultimately led to his resignation as Prime Minister.<\/p>\nThroughout the 2010s, Nigel Farage had an outsized influence on British politics and was always well placed to take advantage of any voter dissatisfaction with the Conservative party in particular.\u00a0 He led UKIP in 2014 and the Brexit Party in 2019 to victory in the EU elections, the only two national elections since 1906 where neither the Conservatives or Labour have topped the poll.\u00a0 But by stepping away in 2020, he was absent in late 2021 when Conservative voters started to desert the party.\u00a0 Tice was unable to attract these voters and by October 2023, Reform was only polling 6%<\/strong> even though the Conservatives were already down to 27%<\/strong>.\u00a0 Instead, Conservative voters temporarily defected to Labour and appeared to consign the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> to history.<\/p>\nIt was at this point Reform started to trend up in the polls and when the 2024 general election called, Farage eventually decided to re-enter the fray.\u00a0 Since then, his influence on British politics has returned and Nigel Farage is the main reason why I say the 30 month blackout was a mirage and the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> is here to stay till the next election.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
— Would you like to comment on this article? —-<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\nPlease do leave your comments on this X\/Twitter<\/strong> <\/a><\/span>\u00a0thread.<\/p>\n—- Want to read more about polls and polling errors? —<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n- Do pollsters show forecasting skill?<\/a><\/li>\n
- Who is the most accurate pollster?<\/a><\/li>\n
- The final set of polls for GE2019.<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
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The change in the fortunes of the parties since the end of June last year (4 days before the election) is extraordinary.\u00a0 The list below is the 9-poll rolling average as of 30th June 2025<\/strong> with changes since 30th June 2024<\/strong> shown in brackets split into two time periods.\u00a0 The first period (JD<\/strong>) is the change between the end of June 2024 and the end of December 2024, the second period (DJ<\/strong>) is the change between the end of December 2024 and the end of June 2025.<\/p>\n Bear in mind these are changes in the polls over 12 months, not since the election last year.\u00a0 The track record of polls is not great<\/a> and the error in the Conservative lead over Labour in last year’s general election was the 2nd largest on record.\u00a0 That being said, the above figures & chart speak of widespread political fragmentation and major voter churn.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n But what if I redo the list as below…<\/p>\n … and replot the chart accordingly?<\/p>\n If I label the sum of CON<\/span>+REF<\/span><\/strong> as The Right<\/strong><\/span> and the sum of LAB<\/span>+LDM<\/span>+GRN<\/span><\/strong> as The Left<\/strong><\/span>, I don’t think I would be misdescribing British politics.\u00a0 Over the last 6 months, the standard deviation of the 9-poll rolling averages for the Right & Left separately has been under 1%<\/strong>.\u00a0 The last time that happened was in the 6 months prior to the 2015 general election.<\/p>\n This is why I say voting intentions have been remarkably stable so far in 2025 when viewed through the lens of The Right<\/strong> <\/span>and The Left<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 All the turbulence between the parties in 2025 has been taking place within the two wings of British politics.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n This is not the first time I’ve talked about The Right<\/strong> <\/span>and The Left<\/strong><\/span>.\u00a0 I used the same concept to make my successful forecast of the 2019 general election<\/a> and wrote about this in more depth in May 2021<\/a>.\u00a0 The difference back then is I used the descriptors Leave Alliance (LVA)<\/strong><\/span> and Remain Consortium (RMC)<\/span><\/strong> instead.\u00a0 I think Brexit related descriptors are now outdated but the underlying concept is not.\u00a0 If I zoom in on the chart above, I can identify the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> which has been the main determinant of British politics for the last 15 years.<\/p>\n The Right<\/strong> <\/span>and The Left<\/strong><\/span> vote shares have fluctuated between 40%<\/strong> and 55%<\/strong> in voting intention polls since 2012 (when polls started tracking UKIP and the Greens) and more likely since the 2010 general election.\u00a0 This is what I call the 40-55 Channel<\/strong>.<\/p>\n For a 30<\/strong> month period between January 2022<\/strong> and June 2024<\/strong>, it looked like the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> had been consigned to history.\u00a0 However, the general election last year showed it had not gone away and voting intention trends since has only strengthened its relevance.\u00a0 I predict the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> will continue to define British politics all the way through to the next election.\u00a0 Further turbulence and drama within The Right<\/strong> <\/span>and The Left<\/strong><\/span> is likely to be the norm for the next few years but I think the top line pattern of the last 15 years is here to stay.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Why did the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> disappear for the 2nd half of the 2019 to 2024 parliament?\u00a0 My explanation is two names; Boris Johnson<\/span><\/strong> and Nigel Farage<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n After the 2019 general election and with Britain’s exit from the European Union secured, Nigel Farage chose to step away from British politics.\u00a0 The Brexit Party mutated into Reform and Richard Tice took over the leadership though Farage continued to own 53% of the party’s shares<\/a>.\u00a0 Throughout 2020 & 2021, Reform averaged 3%<\/strong> in the polls and Tice’s profile in British politics was low.<\/p>\n Boris Johnson was the undisputed leader of the Right to the extent the Conservatives won Hartlepool from Labour in May 2021<\/a> in a by-election.\u00a0 For any government to make a gain from the opposition in a by-election is extraordinary, to do so in what had always been part of Labour’s Red Wall was unprecedented.\u00a0 However, by the end of 2021, Johnson was blamed for the loss of the safe Conservative seat North Shropshire due to the Owen Patterson affair<\/a>.\u00a0 That began 8 months of political turbulence within the Conservative government which ultimately led to his resignation as Prime Minister.<\/p>\n Throughout the 2010s, Nigel Farage had an outsized influence on British politics and was always well placed to take advantage of any voter dissatisfaction with the Conservative party in particular.\u00a0 He led UKIP in 2014 and the Brexit Party in 2019 to victory in the EU elections, the only two national elections since 1906 where neither the Conservatives or Labour have topped the poll.\u00a0 But by stepping away in 2020, he was absent in late 2021 when Conservative voters started to desert the party.\u00a0 Tice was unable to attract these voters and by October 2023, Reform was only polling 6%<\/strong> even though the Conservatives were already down to 27%<\/strong>.\u00a0 Instead, Conservative voters temporarily defected to Labour and appeared to consign the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> to history.<\/p>\n It was at this point Reform started to trend up in the polls and when the 2024 general election called, Farage eventually decided to re-enter the fray.\u00a0 Since then, his influence on British politics has returned and Nigel Farage is the main reason why I say the 30 month blackout was a mirage and the 40-55 Channel<\/strong> is here to stay till the next election.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n — Would you like to comment on this article? —-<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Please do leave your comments on this X\/Twitter<\/strong> <\/a><\/span>\u00a0thread.<\/p>\n More articles on polling can be found by clicking on the Polling<\/a> tab at the top of your screen.<\/p>\n\n
Voting Intentions are stable in 2025<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n
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<\/p>\nThe 40-55 Channel<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
<\/p>\nThe 30 Months Blackout<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
—- Want to read more about polls and polling errors? —<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n
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