{"id":6561,"date":"2025-12-05T17:53:26","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T17:53:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/?p=6561"},"modified":"2026-04-24T18:48:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T17:48:10","slug":"election-trends-fragmentation-of-electorate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marriott-stats.com\/nigels-blog\/election-trends-fragmentation-of-electorate\/","title":{"rendered":"Electoral Trends #1 – The Fragmentation of the West"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last month’s General Election in The Netherlands<\/a> was won by a party with less than 17%<\/strong> of the national vote.\u00a0 Dutch voters, politicians and pundits are now discussing what this means for a governing coalition which is likely to take a number of months complete.\u00a0 For myself, the election was yet another data point showing the fragmentation of the electorate in the West is the key trend over the last 40<\/strong> years.\u00a0 As yet, there is no sign of this trend coming to an end and what the future holds I cannot tell.<\/p>\n

**Update 24\/04\/26 – An updated version of the main chart below can be found at the end of this article**<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

General Election Trends in 6 Countries over 60 years<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n

Take a look at the 6<\/strong> charts below.\u00a0 All show the national vote shares in each election since 1965 for the two main parties (for which I will use the term Duopoly<\/strong><\/span> as a collective noun in this article) in those countries plus the share for All Other<\/strong> <\/span>parties combined.\u00a0 For the countries who did not have an election in 2025, I show the average of voting intention polls in October 2025.<\/p>\n

The 6<\/strong> countries have three things in common.\u00a0 Can you see what they are?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. More and more people voting for All Others<\/span>.<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
  2. The trend to All Others<\/span> exists irrespective of election system used.<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
  3. There is no end in sight for this trend.<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    These are the three points I want to discuss in this article.\u00a0 There are two other points the 6<\/strong> countries have in common which are the reasons why I decided to use them in this article.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. These elections are for a parliament from which the head of government emerges.\u00a0 In other words, there is no elected figure with more powers than the head of government as happens in the presidential elections of France and the USA.<\/li>\n
    2. The frequency of elections is similar in all countries with average parliamentary lifetimes of just under 4<\/strong> years.\u00a0 Australian elections must take place every 3<\/strong> years which is why they are more frequent.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      So what conclusions do I draw from the commonalities I’ve highlighted?<\/p>\n

      The Fragmentation of the Electorate is a 40 Year Steady Trend<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n

      I will explore the trends in each country separately at the end but here is the average vote share of All Other<\/strong><\/span> parties for each country for all elections in 10<\/strong> year timeframes.\u00a0 The combined columns is the average across the 6<\/strong> countries.\u00a0 The main reason I don’t go back further is that in many countries, the lifespan of any Duopoly<\/strong><\/span> of the two main parties rarely goes back for more than 60<\/strong> years.<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

      For the first 20<\/strong> years, the Duopolies<\/strong><\/span> attracted an average of 78%<\/strong> of voters with All Others<\/strong><\/span> on 22%<\/strong>.\u00a0 However, from the late 80’s this started to change and by the most recent period 2016 to 2025, All Others<\/strong><\/span> has more than doubled leaving them neck and neck with the Duopolies<\/strong><\/span> on 50%<\/strong> each.\u00a0 The 40<\/strong> year growth in All Others<\/strong><\/span> averages 7%<\/strong> per decade with no sign of any slowdown.\u00a0 If anything, the trend has accelerated over the last decade<\/p>\n

      Electoral Reform is Distraction Therapy<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n

      I am aware of much talk on social media about electoral reform in both the UK & Australia recently.\u00a0 It would not surprise me if similar talk is taking place in the other four countries.\u00a0 Advocates of electoral reform have pointed to the fragmenting electorate as justification but I come to a different conclusion.\u00a0 I see a similar trend in all 6<\/strong> countries, each of which has a distinctly different electoral system, namely –<\/p>\n