I am delighted to announce my 4-part series describing my analysis of the EU referendum results is now complete and available on Youtube. The full list of the clips are:
I have analysed the results of the EU referendum in some depth and I hope you find my insights informative. Some specific highlights are:
- I estimate that Leave won 400 of the 650 parliamentary constituencies, a landslide in other words. Note the youtube shows 403/650 based on an older model.
- With my seat level results, you can do some nifty analysis of leave votes by demographics. Class & Education comes through strongly, but I also show that Age & Ethnicity are being over emphasised here and the differences there are largely at the extremes.
- I take an in-depth look at the Lord Ashcroft survey and suggest that one reason why leave won is because Remainers conceded the argument to Leave when it came to Sovereignty & Immigration.
- The Leave & Remain campaigns were successful in focusing the voters’ minds on the Economy, Immigration & Sovereignty.
- Ultimately the discussion about the Left Behind/Disaffected misses the point that they are a minority of the population.
- For Leave to win, they needed a larger segment of the population who are not left behind but who are opposed to the EU.
- The debate on sovereignty, especially when it came to who should control Britain’s immigration policy, allowed these two segments to combine and win the referendum.
- Brexit has left the main political parties in a variety of states, specifically:
- The Conservatives are very well positioned to exploit Brexit.
- Labour votes comes from 2 wildly different extremes and leaves the party with an identity crisis.
- The Lib Dems can use Brexit as a way back to political relevance but the Richmond Park byelection is all or nothing for them.
- UKIP can make significant inroads into Labour’s working class seats provided they can pull their act together.
- The Greens are effectively the Lib Dems in disguise and realistically they need to consider an alliance with the Lib Dems.
I hope you find these clips interesting and I would love to receive your feedback.