Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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Coronavirus #2 – What sample size does Boris need to lift all restrictions?

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April Fools day 2020 saw the hive mind of social media asking what the sample size should be to measure the extent of the Coronavirus in the UK.  I could see that many people responding were reaching for standard methodologies which are usually are based on specifying a desired confidence interval.  In doing so, they were overlooking a much more effective and relevant alternative based on the methodology of Acceptance Sampling, first developed by the US Military in World War 2.

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UK General Elections #4 – How accurate are voting intention polls? – updated with GE19

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After 3 general elections with severe polling errors, the UK opinion pollsters redeemed themselves in the 2019 UK General Election with their most accurate performance since 1955.  I base this statement on data provided by Mark Pack who has systematically recorded every opinion poll published since 1945.  The challenge now for the industry is to maintain this level of performance for the next election which may be easier said than done given that 5 out of the last 8 elections have experienced a major polling error.

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UK General Election 2019 Voting Intention – Final Polls

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Today, the UK votes in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years.  After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt.  As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.

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UK Opinion Poll Tracker #16 – December 2019

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Next Thursday, the UK will vote in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years.  After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt.  As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives have more or less recovered their 2017 standing but Labour are still behind their 2017 performance.

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UK Opinion Poll Tracker #15 – November 2019

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In two weeks time, the UK will vote in its 3rd general election in less than 5 years.  After serious polling errors in the last 3 general elections, it is understandable that everyone is taking the latest figures with a lot of salt.  As it stands today, the polls are telling us that the Conservatives have more or less recovered their 2017 standing but Labour is still a long way from repeating their 2017 performance.

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UK Opinion Poll Tracker #14 – February 2019

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After 12 months of essentially static polls despite the news being dominated by Brexit, Labour has experienced a significant worsening of their position and the Conservatives have opened up a lead over Labour that would give them a majority in parliament.  Words of caution are being uttered about the extent of the Tory lead since one pollster is notably out of step with all other pollsters.

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Forecasting#2 – Do Election Pollsters Show Forecasting Skill?

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As I write this, a plethora of economic forecasts are making the rounds in the news in the UK.  In all cases, the forecasters have failed to publish their track record and these days, I will not pay attention to what they say unless their forecasts are accompanied by a track record.  But, how does one go about presenting a forecasting track record to prove that one has forecasting skill?  To demonstrate, I will analyse how well opinion polls have predicted General Elections in the UK and measure their track record.  I must confess I was surprised at what I found out and I would urge all opinion pollsters to take note of my results.

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UK Opinion Poll Tracker #11 – March 2018

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For my latest Opinion Poll Tracker, I will explore 4 points currently being debated by political pundits.

  1. Have the Conservatives taken the lead in the polls?
  2. How much weight should we give to Survation polls who were the most accurate in 2017 and are the outlier poll today?
  3. Was there a “Youthquake” in the 2017 general election?
  4. What would the effect be of allowing 16 & 17 year olds to vote in general elections?

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