The headline of the third quarter of 2018 is that the UK continues to be sluggish but going in the right direction. There is no question, the economy needs a pickup soon to place itself on a stronger footing ahead of a rising probability of another recession in the near future.
The headline of the second quarter of 2018 is the lowest unemployment rate since 1975. Economic Inactivity continues to be at record lows, inflation is falling and the budget deficit is shrinking. However, GDP growth continues to be sluggish which means our pay is stagnating and we have record levels of debt to pay off. History tells us that the odds of another recession soon will rise from now on so there is still a need to change the state of our economy.
Welcome to my first tracker post of the UK economy! I intend this to be similar in format to my UK Weather Tracker except that it will be published quarterly rather than monthly. In this post I will explain the statistics I have chosen to track.
I am a big believer in placing recent statistics in their historical context. Nothing annoys me more than someone overexplaining a small dip in GDP which in historical terms is absolutely meaningless. Unfortunately we live in a world cursed by the year on year comparison without any understanding of basic time series concepts such as autocorrelation and reversion to the mean. So one hope I have with my Economy Tracker is to improve this state of affairs.
Over the last 6 weeks I have been making many posts about what is happening and what will happen in 2017. I thought it would be helpful to have one post which brings everything together in one place.
My official 2017 election forecast summarises what I expect the results to be on June 8th 2017. This post also includes a link to a spreadsheet containing my seat by seat forecasts which can be found at the bottom of that post. (EDIT: Weds 7th June @1030AM. If you downloaded the spreadsheet before 1030 on Weds 7th June, please visit the link and download the spreadsheet again. The link explains why)
To accompany my forecast, I have created 4 youtube video clips where I dig into the details of how I arrived at that forecast.