The mixed picture for the UK economy continued in Q3. GDP growth is now at its lowest level since the 2008/9 recession but unemployment and inflation continues to be good. The low level of growth though continues to be a drag on government finances.
UK Economy Tracker #5 – 2019 Q2
Q2 was a mixed picture for the UK economy. Quarterly GDP fell for the first time since whilst Economic Inactivity fell to record lows and Wage Inflation was the highest since the 2008 recession.
Stats in the News #3 – Did I change Bath’s Clean Air Zone plans?
The city of Bath is among a number of cities in the UK tasked with reducing Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions. NOx pollution is thought to contribute to poor health and the government has required clean air plans from the relevant local authorities to be in place before 2021. I had no idea that this would result in my statistical expertise being needed to answer a political row over the BathBreathes2021 plans to charge cars driving into Bath and you can read my report to see what my answer was!
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UK Economy Tracker #4 – 2019 Q1
It’s taken 10 years but the UK is finally experiencing true wage growth that outpaces inflation. With employment and economic activity at record levels, the UK economy should be in good shape but the basic problem of low growth is still there. Our economy still needs to place itself on a stronger footing ahead of a rising probability of another recession in the near future.
UK Economy Tracker #3 – 2018 Q4
It’s taken 10 years but the UK is finally experiencing true wage growth that outpaces inflation. With employment and economic activity at record levels, the UK economy should be in good shape but the basic problem of low growth is still there. Our economy still needs to place itself on a stronger footing ahead of a rising probability of another recession in the near future.
UK Economy Tracker #2 – 2018 Q3
The headline of the third quarter of 2018 is that the UK continues to be sluggish but going in the right direction. There is no question, the economy needs a pickup soon to place itself on a stronger footing ahead of a rising probability of another recession in the near future.
The Fat Tail of Kim Kardashian
Which is the odd one out from the 3 figures shown below? All are the average number of Americans to die each year from these causes.
- A – 69 from Lawnmowers
- B – 31 from Lightning
- C – 9 from Islamic Terrorists
Do think about your answer before you read on!
UK General Election 2017 #6 – Everything you need to know in one place!
Over the last 6 weeks I have been making many posts about what is happening and what will happen in 2017. I thought it would be helpful to have one post which brings everything together in one place.
My official 2017 election forecast summarises what I expect the results to be on June 8th 2017. This post also includes a link to a spreadsheet containing my seat by seat forecasts which can be found at the bottom of that post. (EDIT: Weds 7th June @1030AM. If you downloaded the spreadsheet before 1030 on Weds 7th June, please visit the link and download the spreadsheet again. The link explains why)
To accompany my forecast, I have created 4 youtube video clips where I dig into the details of how I arrived at that forecast.
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Stats in the News #2 – Who reads fake news?
Fake news has entered the political dictionary over the last year. Suddenly, politicians and commentators are worried that elections are being influenced by false stories being circulated that appear to be genuine. Social media platforms are under pressure to filter out such stories raising the old questions of censorship and “who guards the guards?” However, evidence on the extent and influence of fake news is thin on the ground.
A recent article from the BBC website “The rise of left wing, anti-Trump fake news” has provided some firmer evidence which I think makes a good case study for my evidence hierarchy or circle.
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Stats in the News #1 – Science & Technology March 2017
Welcome to my first post where I put my Evidence Hierarchy or Circle into practice and show you what is behind the headline.
Today I am concentrating on science and technology related articles from the BBC website since that is accessible to nearly everyone. As always, I am critiquing the article more than the research since I have not read the research papers that motivated the article. The 3 articles are:
- “Fruit shaped sensor can improve freshness“.
- “Robots to affect up to 30% of jobs“
- “Dinosaurs may have UK origin“
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