It’s taken 10 years but the UK is finally experiencing true wage growth that outpaces inflation. With employment and economic activity at record levels, the UK economy should be in good shape but the basic problem of low growth is still there. Our economy still needs to place itself on a stronger footing ahead of a rising probability of another recession in the near future.
The headline of the third quarter of 2018 is that the UK continues to be sluggish but going in the right direction. There is no question, the economy needs a pickup soon to place itself on a stronger footing ahead of a rising probability of another recession in the near future.
The headline of the second quarter of 2018 is the lowest unemployment rate since 1975. Economic Inactivity continues to be at record lows, inflation is falling and the budget deficit is shrinking. However, GDP growth continues to be sluggish which means our pay is stagnating and we have record levels of debt to pay off. History tells us that the odds of another recession soon will rise from now on so there is still a need to change the state of our economy.
Which is the odd one out from the 3 figures shown below? All are the average number of Americans to die each year from these causes.
- A – 69 from Lawnmowers
- B – 31 from Lightning
- C – 9 from Islamic Terrorists
Do think about your answer before you read on!
Welcome to my first tracker post of the UK economy! I intend this to be similar in format to my UK Weather Tracker except that it will be published quarterly rather than monthly. In this post I will explain the statistics I have chosen to track.
I am a big believer in placing recent statistics in their historical context. Nothing annoys me more than someone overexplaining a small dip in GDP which in historical terms is absolutely meaningless. Unfortunately we live in a world cursed by the year on year comparison without any understanding of basic time series concepts such as autocorrelation and reversion to the mean. So one hope I have with my Economy Tracker is to improve this state of affairs.
Over the last 6 weeks I have been making many posts about what is happening and what will happen in 2017. I thought it would be helpful to have one post which brings everything together in one place.
My official 2017 election forecast summarises what I expect the results to be on June 8th 2017. This post also includes a link to a spreadsheet containing my seat by seat forecasts which can be found at the bottom of that post. (EDIT: Weds 7th June @1030AM. If you downloaded the spreadsheet before 1030 on Weds 7th June, please visit the link and download the spreadsheet again. The link explains why)
To accompany my forecast, I have created 4 youtube video clips where I dig into the details of how I arrived at that forecast.
Fake news has entered the political dictionary over the last year. Suddenly, politicians and commentators are worried that elections are being influenced by false stories being circulated that appear to be genuine. Social media platforms are under pressure to filter out such stories raising the old questions of censorship and “who guards the guards?” However, evidence on the extent and influence of fake news is thin on the ground.
Welcome to my first post where I put my Evidence Hierarchy or Circle into practice and show you what is behind the headline.
Today I am concentrating on science and technology related articles from the BBC website since that is accessible to nearly everyone. As always, I am critiquing the article more than the research since I have not read the research papers that motivated the article. The 3 articles are:
- “Fruit shaped sensor can improve freshness“.
- “Robots to affect up to 30% of jobs“
- “Dinosaurs may have UK origin“