My latest UK weather tracker shows that August was just like July in being an unremarkable month. This means the meteorological summer of 2017 has also been unremarkable just as I have been predicting for the last few years.
UK General Election 2017 Forecast #4 – My Official Prediction as of 4th June 2017
My official prediction using my Final Election Model is that the Conservatives will make a net gain of 45 seats resulting in a working majority of 105 seats.
My forecast uses data from my latest UK Opinion Poll Tracker and it is worth reading that post in conjunction with this post. At the bottom of this post is a spreadsheet containing my prediction for each seat. I am basing all figures in this forecast on the assumption that Conservatives will have a 9.5% lead over Labour on June 8th. I arrive at that figure by taking the current CON-LAB lead of 7% in the latest polls and adding an expected 2.5% underestimate in the Conservative lead over Labour based on my analysis of historical polling errors. A knock-on effect of this assumption is that I expect turnout to be 2pts higher at 68%.
Forecasting#1 – How do you identify a good forecaster?
“I think the people in this country have had enough of experts”
Michael Gove, Sky News, 3rd June 2016
This was one of the most memorable quotes during the EU referendum in 2016 and came in response to a question as to why the forecasts of a whole list of organisations such as the IMF should be ignored. It prompted a flurry of rebuttals and articles supporting or damning him and the debate has not gone away.
Like so many quotes, it has already become distorted. I strongly recommend you listen to the full question and answer because here is his quote in its entirety.
When I read this full quote I realised I am in complete agreement with Michael Gove.
Stats in the News #0 – The Evidence Hierarchy and how to use it
“Graduates aren’t skilled enough!” says a BBC headline. What is your immediate reaction? If you decide to find out more and read the article, you will see the following.
- A brief reference to a survey of a 174 organisations, half of whom are apparently moaning graduate skills.
- 3 brief interviews with recent graduates asking what they wish they had learned before starting their job.
After reading this, do you feel that a case has been made that universities are slipping up? How much weight should you place on this article and the information it contains? One of the major problems with news these days is that we are bombarded with articles about so many things that it can difficult to sort the good from the bad, especially when articles are referring to data in one way or another. My Evidence Hierarchy provides a short cut to assess the usefulness of news articles and with a bit of practice, I hope the result will be less stress for you about what is going on in the world.
EU Referendum 2016 #1 – How and why did Leave win and what does it mean for UK politics? (a 4-part special)
I am delighted to announce my 4-part series describing my analysis of the EU referendum results is now complete and available on Youtube. The full list of the clips are:
Part 1 – Where and How did Leave win?
Part 3 – What does the leave vote mean for the next general election?
Part 4 – How will Brexit play out in the Richmond & Sleaford by-elections
I have analysed the results of the EU referendum in some depth and I hope you find my insights informative. Some specific highlights are:
