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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK Weather Tracker #110 – March 2026

April 3, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

The UK weather in March was the 10th warmest on record but otherwise unremarkable.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #110 – March 2026

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

UK Weather Trends #40 – Winter 2026

March 6, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

Winter 2026 in the UK was warmer, wetter and darker than normal but not the extent I expected given the unrelenting days without the sun in January.  So for those people in Aberdeen who went 46 days without seeing the sun, it could have been worse!

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #40 – Winter 2026

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Tracker #109 – February 2026

March 6, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

The UK weather in February was warm, wet and dark for this time of year.  We also had the 2nd lowest range of temperatures on record with maximum and minimums across the 24 hours varying by only 4.5 degrees on average.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #109 – February 2026

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

UK Weather Tracker #108 – January 2026

February 2, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

The 2026 calendar year in the UK began with a wetter January than usual but otherwise the weather in this month was unremarkable.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #108 – January 2026

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

UK Weather Trends #39 – Annual Temperatures in 2025

January 6, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

The year 2025 was both the hottest and 2nd hottest year on record in the UK.  Last year, I used a CUSUM Chart to conclude “if the calendar year average is greater than 9.48 degrees Celsius and the meteorological year average is greater than 9.33 degrees Celsius … (this will) signal an upwards trend change“.  By co-incidence, the average 24-hour temperature across the UK in 2025 was 10.09 degrees Celsius for both the calendar (Jan to Dec) and the meteorological (Dec to Nov) years which is clearly higher than these thresholds.  It’s only taken me four years of writing to conclude a new upward trend in UK temperatures has begun.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #39 – Annual Temperatures in 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: Control Chart, CUSUM, SPC, Statistical Process Control, t-test, temperature, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends

UK Weather Tracker #107 – December 2025

January 5, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

The 2026 meteorological year in the UK began with a warmer and less frosty December than usual but otherwise the weather in this month was unremarkable.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #107 – December 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: Index, Presenting data, Weather, Weather Tracker

UK Weather Trends #38 – Autumn 2025

December 3, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The UK autumn in 2025 was warmer and wetter than usual but not exceptionally so and continues to be consistent with the step change in our autumnal climate seen 25 years ago.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #38 – Autumn 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #37 – Summer 2025

September 7, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The 2025 meteorological summer in the UK was the warmest on record.  This came less from heatwaves setting new temperate peaks and more from steady warmth throughout June, July & August.  Overall it was sunnier and drier than usual in the UK but not to any significant degree.  As a result, whilst the 1st principal component confirms the summer can be regarded as a “good summer”, it was a long way from being an exceptional summer like 1976 & 1995.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #37 – Summer 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #36 – Spring 2025

June 6, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Spring 2025 in the UK was both the hottest & sunniest on record as well as the 5th driest.  For sunshine, 2025 was even more extraordinary than the exceptionally sunny spring in 2020 and was the result of 3 very sunny months in a row.  For temperature, there was no doubt in my mind this time the data was correct unlike last year when I questioned whether spring 2024 was in fact the warmest in record.  The Met Office has not corrected the record so apparently it was.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #36 – Spring 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #35 – Winter 2025

March 5, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Winter 2025 in the UK was unremarkable.  Last year I explained I believe our winters are following a steady trend to warmer and wetter winters which began in the early 1980s.  The data for the winter just gone doesn’t my conclusions.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #35 – Winter 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

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The UK weather in March was the 10th warmest on record but otherwise unremarkable. … [Read More...] about UK Weather Tracker #110 – March 2026

UK Weather Trends #40 – Winter 2026

Winter 2026 in the UK was warmer, wetter and darker than normal but not the extent I expected given … [Read More...] about UK Weather Trends #40 – Winter 2026

UK Weather Tracker #109 – February 2026

The UK weather in February was warm, wet and dark for this time of year.  We also had the 2nd lowest … [Read More...] about UK Weather Tracker #109 – February 2026

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