Meteorologists define autumn in the UK to be the period from September to November so autumn is now over and we are officially in winter. The 2018 autumn was consistent with the step change in the autumnal climate that took place in the 1990s.
UK Weather Tracker #22 – November 2018
UK Economy Tracker #2 – 2018 Q3
The headline of the third quarter of 2018 is that the UK continues to be sluggish but going in the right direction. There is no question, the economy needs a pickup soon to place itself on a stronger footing ahead of a rising probability of another recession in the near future.
UK Opinion Poll Tracker #12 – October 2018
Here is a long overdue update of my UK opinion poll tracker and in this post, I going to take a closer look at the key trends over the last 12 months.
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UK Weather Tracker #21 – October 2018
A sunny October resulted in wide temperature ranges leading to cold nights and the first frosts of the autumn.
US Presidential Election 2020 #1 – Will Donald Trump win a 2nd term in 2020?
In a week’s time, Americans will go to the polls for what is known as the mid-term elections. Inevitably, the results will lead to much speculation on what it means for Donald Trump’s chances of re-election in 2020. However, I will be surprised if many commentators will look to history as a guide to 2020 and so I will fill in this gap with the help of fun 10 question quiz about US presidents.
UK Weather Tracker #20 – September 2018
Forecasting#2 – Do Election Pollsters Show Forecasting Skill?
As I write this, a plethora of economic forecasts are making the rounds in the news in the UK. In all cases, the forecasters have failed to publish their track record and these days, I will not pay attention to what they say unless their forecasts are accompanied by a track record. But, how does one go about presenting a forecasting track record to prove that one has forecasting skill? To demonstrate, I will analyse how well opinion polls have predicted General Elections in the UK and measure their track record. I must confess I was surprised at what I found out and I would urge all opinion pollsters to take note of my results.
UK Weather Trends #6 – Summer 2018
Meteorologists define summer in the UK to be the period from June to August so summer is now over and we are officially in autumn. The 2018 summer was the joint hottest on record and in doing so blew apart my prediction that we would have to wait till next year for our next good summer!
UK Economy Tracker #1 – 2018 Q2
The headline of the second quarter of 2018 is the lowest unemployment rate since 1975. Economic Inactivity continues to be at record lows, inflation is falling and the budget deficit is shrinking. However, GDP growth continues to be sluggish which means our pay is stagnating and we have record levels of debt to pay off. History tells us that the odds of another recession soon will rise from now on so there is still a need to change the state of our economy.
