We now know the answer to who will win the 2018 6 Nations Championship. Ireland won the title with a match to spare after England failure against France resulted in my second forecasting error of the championship. There is still much to play for though in the last week with the main question being whether England do to Ireland what Ireland did to England last year and stop them from winning a Grand Slam. Whilst I am cheering on England, it is St. Patricks Day and I do have some Irish blood in me so part of me does wish Ireland well.
My first published attempt to predict the outcomes of Premier League matches got off to a good start last week with 23% of my predictions getting the right scoreline and 52% getting the right outcome. I have updated my prediction of the final league which continues to point to an incredibly tight relegation battle, especially for my team Newcastle United.
Be careful of what you wish for! Two weeks ago, I said I was hoping for an error in my predictions based on World Rugby’s rankings and I finally got one and it was Scotland overturning my team England …
Last month, I expressed my cynicism at the media crying wolf over bad weather in the UK. The wolf finally appeared but in the first week of March instead so that means that February still did not see the wolf as I explain in this month’s UK Weather Tracker. [Read more…]
With 10 games to go, the 2018 EPL is now entering its final quarter and supporters of all teams are starting to wonder where their team will finish in the league. As a Newcastle United supporter, my team is stuck right in the middle of one of the tightest relegation battles in living memory. At the other end of the table, my wife’s team Spurs are almost certainly out of the running for the title but Champions League qualification is definitely in their sights. To set expectations, I have used a statistical method known as Poisson modelling to predict the final league table come May 13th and I will update this post after every round of games between now and then so please bookmark this page.
After two weeks of the 2018 6 Nations, all 6 of my match predictions have been correct. Whilst this might be vindication of the World Rugby ranking model, the last thing we want in sport is a perfect prediction model otherwise what’s the point? Where would be the excitement of watching sport live? So I am hoping for an incorrect prediction soon …
The 2018 6 Nations is underway and all of my predictions for week 1 turned out to be correct (just!) with the help of an amazing drop goal drop goal by Johnny Sexton. This means that out of 37 matches I have used rankings to make predictions, 30 have been correct.
Every time I went online in January, I would find a headline promising an extreme cold snap in the UK which never materialised. I’ve grown tired and cynical of these headlines and given that the latest met office data shows that January 2018 was completely unremarkable, I think I am justified in this attitude! [Read more…]
The 2018 6 Nations begins tomorrow and fans will be looking forward to a feast of rugby for the next two months. As always, pundits galore are making their predictions and the one thing we can count on is that some will have egg on their faces by the time it is over. In 2017, I used World Rugby’s Rankings to predict who would win each match in the 6 Nations and the Autumn Internationals and these predictions worked out well with 12 out of 15 6 Nations games and 15 out of the 19 Autumn International matches involving 6 Nations teams correctly called.
Labour continues to hold a small lead over the Conservatives as the nation entered the Christmas holidays. There is evidence of some voter movement towards UKIP which indicates that their true national level is around 4% or 5% and their General Election performance was distorted by so many of their candidates standing down.