Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK Weather Trends #32 – Summer 2024

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The 2024 meteorological summer in the UK was unremarkable on all weather variables.  In fact 2024 was so unremarkable that it is in fact the most “normal” summer of the last 114 years when I compare the data to the last 50 years which I regard as “living memory”.

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UK General Elections #8 – How accurate are voting intention polls? – updated with GE2024

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After their 2nd best ever performance in the 2019 UK General Election, the UK polling industry flipped in the 2024 UK General Election to their 2nd worst ever performance after 1992.  6 of the last 9 elections have seen at least one party experience a major polling error.  It would appear the move to web polling and lower barriers of entry has led to poorer quality polls.

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Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?

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A good forecaster should always provided an easily accessible list of forecasts made, how the forecast was arrived at and how accurate it ended up being.  At long last, here is my election forecasting track record updated with the 2024 UK General Election so finally I am a good forecaster I hope!

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Pay Gap Data #7 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2023?

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This post was updated on 9th July 2024 with the latest data for 2023 snapshot date.  I will continue to update each quarter with data from late reporters.

The government requires all employers with a headcount of 250 or more on their snapshot date to submit gender pay gap data.  All data is available to the public and can be found on the government’s gender pay gap website.  I have downloaded this data and created a spreadsheet to present the data in a more user-friendly and visual format.

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UK General Election 2024 #5 – My Final Forecast as of 3rd July 2024

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My third and final forecast of the number of seats to be won by each party in the 2024 UK General Election is –

  • CON 130 (+17)
  • LAB 420 (-17)
  • LD 50
  • SNP 25
  • GRN 3
  • PC 2
  • REF 2
  • OTH NI 18

The numbers in brackets are the changes from my second forecast of 30th June 2024.

This article is based on polling data as of 2000 on 3rd July 2024.  If more polling data comes in and causes me to change my forescript, the changes will be detailed in a postscript at the end of the article.

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UK General Election 2024 #4 – My Forecast as of 30th June 2024

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My second forecast of the number of seats to be won by each party in the 2024 UK General Election is –

  • CON 113 (+5)
  • LAB 437 (-5)
  • OTH 100 (unch)

The numbers in brackets are the changes from my first forecast of 23rd June 2024.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #4 – My Forecast as of 30th June 2024