Originally published on 19th February. Please scroll to the bottom for an updated forecast as of 22nd February.
The Conservatives are well set to take Copeland from Labour. That is my forecast after running my by-election model on Copeland. According to Matt Singh of NCP Politics, the last comparable by-election would be in 1878! For more details about my methodology, please read how I forecast by-elections in the Brexit era.
As always, we need to start with a breakdown of the 2015 General Election results when Labour held the seat with a 6% majority and the 2016 EU referendum result where I estimate that Leave won with 61% of the vote.