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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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COVID19 Deaths #2D – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 29th May

June 1, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 2nd June.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2D – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 29th May

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2C – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 15th May

May 16, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 19th May.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2C – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 15th May

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2B – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 8th May

May 11, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 12th May.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2B – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 8th May

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2A – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 1st May

May 3, 2020 By Nigel Marriott

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I explore how the PHE series can be used to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England every Tuesday.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2A – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 1st May

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

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