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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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COVID19 Deaths #2H – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 26th June

June 28, 2020 By Nigel

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 30th June.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2H – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 26th June

Filed Under: Forecasting Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2G – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 19th June

June 21, 2020 By Nigel

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 23rd June.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2G – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 19th June

Filed Under: Forecasting Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2F – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 12th June

June 15, 2020 By Nigel

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 16th June.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2F – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 12th June

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2E – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 5th June

June 6, 2020 By Nigel

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 9th June.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2E – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 5th June

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2D – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 29th May

June 1, 2020 By Nigel

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 2nd June.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2D – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 29th May

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2C – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 15th May

May 16, 2020 By Nigel

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 19th May.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2C – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 15th May

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2B – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 8th May

May 11, 2020 By Nigel

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 12th May.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2B – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 8th May

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

COVID19 Deaths #2A – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 1st May

May 3, 2020 By Nigel

In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I explore how the PHE series can be used to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England every Tuesday.

[Read more…] about COVID19 Deaths #2A – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 1st May

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: Coronavirus, Covid19, Forecasting model, NHS, ONS, Pandemic, PHE, SARS-COV-2, Trend extrapolation

UK General Election 2019 #2 – My forecast is the most accurate & beats the Exit Poll!

December 16, 2019 By Nigel

At 2200 on Thursday 12th December 2019, the BBC/ITV/Sky Exit Poll was revealed to the nation and pointed to a large majority for the Conservatives.  Unlike 2017, I was able to turn to my wife and say “it looks like I will be right this time!”  By the end of the night, Gavin Freeguard from the Institute of Government was tweeting that not only was I the most accurate election forecaster of 2019, I was more accurate than the Exit Poll.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2019 #2 – My forecast is the most accurate & beats the Exit Poll!

Filed Under: Elections, Featured blog, Forecasting Tagged With: BBC, Brexit, Election forecasting, Exit poll, Forecasting model, GE2019, general election 2019, ITV, John Curtice, Politics, Seat forecast, Sky

UK General Election 2019 #1 – My Official Forecast

December 12, 2019 By Nigel

My forecast for the 2019 UK General Election this Thursday is that the Conservatives will win a majority of 72 seats.  The margin of error in this forecast is very wide though due to the fact that 5 of of the last 7 general elections have seen a major polling error.  If there is a repeat of the GE2017 underestimate of Labour, then there will be another hung Parliament.

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2019 #1 – My Official Forecast

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: Brexit, Election forecasting, Forecasting model, GE2019, general election 2019, Politics, Seat forecast

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