Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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COVID19 Deaths #2H – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 26th June

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 30th June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2G – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 19th June

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 23rd June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2F – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 12th June

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 16th June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2E – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 5th June

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 9th June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2D – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 29th May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 2nd June.

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COVID19 Deaths #2C – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 15th May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 19th May.

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COVID19 Deaths #2B – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 8th May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I update my model which uses the PHE series to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England on Tuesday 12th May.

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COVID19 Deaths #2A – Estimated Excess Deaths in England up to 1st May

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In many countries across the world, the total effect of the Coronavirus pandemic is now being measured using the concept of Excess Deaths.  However, publication of such data by the Office of National Statistics for England is up to 2 weeks slower than the daily deaths published by Public Health England.  In this post, I explore how the PHE series can be used to estimate what the ONS will publish for excess deaths in England every Tuesday.

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UK General Election 2019 #2 – My forecast is the most accurate & beats the Exit Poll!

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At 2200 on Thursday 12th December 2019, the BBC/ITV/Sky Exit Poll was revealed to the nation and pointed to a large majority for the Conservatives.  Unlike 2017, I was able to turn to my wife and say “it looks like I will be right this time!”  By the end of the night, Gavin Freeguard from the Institute of Government was tweeting that not only was I the most accurate election forecaster of 2019, I was more accurate than the Exit Poll.

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UK General Election 2019 #1 – My Official Forecast

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My forecast for the 2019 UK General Election this Thursday is that the Conservatives will win a majority of 72 seats.  The margin of error in this forecast is very wide though due to the fact that 5 of of the last 7 general elections have seen a major polling error.  If there is a repeat of the GE2017 underestimate of Labour, then there will be another hung Parliament.

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