Identify Trends in your Data & Make Forecasts (12 hours)

Course Details

Finding out what is going to happen next is one of the big questions in businesses especially in our world today of COVID19 & BREXIT. It would be so much easier to plan sales, purchases, production, staff and logistics etc. Many businesses know how important it is to forecast for the future, yet many fail to apply the fundamental concepts of statistical forecasting. Those that don’t use statistical forecasting face higher costs and uncertainty when the reality diverges from their plans. Those that do are able plan for the future more efficiently and effectively.

This 12 hour course is run by the most accurate forecaster of the 2019 UK General Election who will take you through the basic concepts of statistics and how they can be applied to the analysis & extrapolation of trends and the making of forecasts.  You will also learn how to perform relevant calculations in Excel.

Who should attend this course?

If you’re looking to improve the way you plan your business and save money by introducing statistical forecasting then this course is ideal. It is designed for anyone involved in business, operational & strategic planning roles and monitoring & analysing organisational performance.

Course details

The course will held online.  The 12 hours will be spread over the 3 days of 10th, 11th & 12th November 2021.  Each day will start at 0930 and finish at 1430 allowing for breaks after each hour.  Our preference is to use Zoom but we are happy to use Teams if a majority of delegates prefer to use this.  Please state in your booking which you would prefer to use.

The course fee is £575 +VAT per person. 

Course prerequisites

In order to get the most out of this course, participants will require:

1. A laptop with Microsoft Excel installed. A spreadsheet with the data to be analysed during the course will be emailed to you before the course.
2. Completion of a pre-course online questionnaire before attending the course.
3. Be comfortable with the basic operations of Microsoft Excel such as entering data, undertaking simple calculations such as the average and producing simple charts (line and bar charts).
4. A numerate background along with the desire to become better at analysing data.

It is important to note that this course is not a training course in Microsoft Excel.  However, you will learn useful tricks and shortcuts with Excel during the course.

What you will learn?

Hours 1 to 4 – We begin with a refresher of basic statistical concepts with a focus on how they are applied when analysing trends & making forecasts.  The day ends with an introduction to the key principles of identifying & extrapolating trends.

• What is Conditional Probability and why is it so fundamental to statistical analysis?
• What is the meaning of Risk and how can we assess & manage it?
• How to summarise your data & trends with the right charts and statistics and how to interpret what you see.
• What is Correlation and how to build simple Linear Regression models.

Hours 5 to 8 – We expand on the ideas of day 1 and learn how to properly analyse, identify & extrapolate trends.

• Key principles of Analysing & Extrapolating Trends.
• How to prove a Trend is real using Statistical Tests
• Using Smoothing Methods to measure the Underlying Trend
• The right & wrong way to Extrapolate Trends

Hours 9 to 12 – We look at additional concepts relevant to trend analysis and then explore in more depth what forecasting is, the different approaches to forecasting and what distinguishes a good forecaster from a bad forecaster.

• Identifying and adjusting for Seasonality in your data
• Using Control Charts to spot changes in your Trend
• The key concepts of forecasting.
• 4 ways of making forecasts
• What does a good forecaster look like?

Throughout the course, there will be ample opportunities for you to practice the calculations in Microsoft Excel and to ask questions.  After the course, you will receive a spreadsheet explaining all the answers and demonstrating the relevant calculations.

Your course instructor

Nigel Marriott is an Independent Statistician and fellow of the Royal Statistical Society.  He has been running basic statistics courses aimed at non-statisticians for nearly 20 years.  Feedback has consistently noted that Nigel has a rare ability to explain what looks like complicated statistics in a simple manner that makes it easy for you to understand and apply what you are learning.

Find out what previous course attendees think of Nigel.

Nigel was designated the most accurate forecaster of the 2019 UK General Election by the Institute of Government Studies, beating even the exit poll.  Find out more here!

Nigel also blogs extensively on topical statistical issues including trend analysis and forecasting and you can find all his blogs here.

Other Training Courses in Statistics

We offer a wide range of statistical training courses covering numerous topics.  We provide in-house training as well as public courses like this one.  You can find out more details here.

If you would like to receive notifications of future training courses, you can subscribe to our Newsletter by following this link and ticking the Statistics Training category and any other categories of interest.  You will be able to unsubscribe at any time.