Disinterested employers were 20% less likely than engaged employers to have narrowed their UK gender pay gap between 2017 & 2021 . I draw this conclusion from a statistical model using ~6,000 employers which removed the effect of confounders such as size, sector, furlough, gender ratio, etc. Once accounted for, I found 61% of those reporting their pay gap for 2019 had narrowed their pay gap by 2021 compared to 55% of those not reporting 2019 data.
The UK is facing the challenge of interpreting the first round of gender pay gap data and I listed some of the challenges in my article “the 7 ways to misuse gender pay gap data“. In statement 4 of that post, I stated that a lack of understanding of the laws of chance will result in unjustified allegations of gender discrimination against some organisations and so in this article, I want to demonstrate the laws of chance using nothing more than some dice and coins, a process known as simulation. My simulation model is simple enough for you to repeat by yourselves and at the end, you will have a better idea of the extent to which median gender pay gaps can vary even when organisations do not discriminate in any shape or form.
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