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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

You are here: Home / Archives for Simulation

All I want for Christmas is football!

December 21, 2021 By Nigel

Will there be any football this Christmas?  The Omicron variant of COVID19 is wreaking havoc with football and rugby schedules and the traditional Boxing Day lineup is in danger of being cancelled.  So what will football fans do instead?  The good news is I am giving a Christmas present to all football supporter that is almost as good as the real thing.  All you need are 2 packs of playing cards, a pen and paper or a spreadsheet and you can play a simple football simulation game which guarantees fun and excitement for all.

[Read more…] about All I want for Christmas is football!

Filed Under: Sport Tagged With: EPL, Football, Playing Cards, Premier League, Probability, Simulation, Sport Analytics

Pay Gap Case Study #1 – Life on Mars

May 21, 2018 By Nigel

The UK is facing the challenge of interpreting the first round of gender pay gap data and I listed some of the challenges in my article “the 7 ways to misuse gender pay gap data“.  In statement 4 of that post, I stated that a lack of understanding of the laws of chance will result in unjustified allegations of gender discrimination against some organisations and so in this article, I want to demonstrate the laws of chance using nothing more than some dice and coins, a process known as simulation.  My simulation model is simple enough for you to repeat by yourselves and at the end, you will have a better idea of the extent to which median gender pay gaps can vary even when organisations do not discriminate in any shape or form.
[Read more…] about Pay Gap Case Study #1 – Life on Mars

Filed Under: Diversity Tagged With: Data journalism, Gender Pay Gap, Mars UK, Pay Modelling, Simulation

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Voice Referendum #2 – My Forecast Reviewed

Australians rejected the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on … [Read More...] about Voice Referendum #2 – My Forecast Reviewed

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Pay Gap Data #6 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2022?

This post was updated on 4th October 2023 with the latest data. The government requires all … [Read More...] about Pay Gap Data #6 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2022?

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