trend analysis

UK Weather Trends #42 – Summer 2026

September 8, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

The 2026 meteorological summer in the UK was the warmest on record, surpassing the record set last year. Unlike 2025 whose record was due to steady warmth, 2026 came from a series of heatwaves. Despite that none of the 3 months individually set new records but as a collective, they added up to a new temperature record.

It was also the 6th sunniest summer on record but whilst it was drier than usual, the dryness was not unusual. That might surprise those experiencing hosepipe bans in certain places but this was due to significant regional variations in rainfall. Consequently, whilst 2026 can be regarded as the 3rd “best summer” of all time through the lens of the 1st principal component, it still had some way to go reach the folklore of 1976 and 1995. More than that, since we have now had two “nice” summers in a row, history tells us these have never been followed by a 3rd “nice” summer so plan accordingly for 2027!

UK Weather Trends #41 – Spring 2026

June 2, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

Spring 2026 in the UK was the 3rd hottest record with nearly all regions in England recording their hottest ever spring. The heatwave at the end of May (whilst I was out of the country!) set new records for maximum temperature but all 3 months of the season were well above normal. Whilst it was also the 3rd sunniest spring on record, rainfall was entirely normal for the season.

UK Weather Trends #40 – Winter 2026

March 6, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

Winter 2026 in the UK was warmer, wetter and darker than normal but not the extent I expected given the unrelenting days without the sun in January. So for those people in Aberdeen who went 46 days without seeing the sun, it could have been worse!

UK Weather Trends #39 – Annual Temperatures in 2025

January 6, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

The year 2025 was both the hottest and 2nd hottest year on record in the UK. Last year, I used a CUSUM Chart to conclude “if the calendar year average is greater than 9.48 degrees Celsius and the meteorological year average is greater than 9.33 degrees Celsius … (this will) signal an upwards trend change“. By co-incidence, the average 24-hour temperature across the UK in 2025 was 10.09 degrees Celsius for both the calendar (Jan to Dec) and the meteorological (Dec to Nov) years which is clearly higher than these thresholds. It’s only taken me four years of writing to conclude a new upward trend in UK temperatures has begun.

Electoral Trends #1 – The Fragmentation of the West

December 5, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Last month’s General Election in The Netherlands was won by a party with less than 17% of the national vote. Dutch voters, politicians and pundits are now discussing what this means for a governing coalition which is likely to take a number of months complete. For myself, the election was yet another data point showing the fragmentation of the electorate in the West is the key trend over the last 40 years. As yet, there is no sign of this trend coming to an end and what the future holds I cannot tell.

**Update 1/8/26 – An updated version of the main chart below can be found at the end of this article**

UK Weather Trends #38 – Autumn 2025

December 3, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The UK autumn in 2025 was warmer and wetter than usual but not exceptionally so and continues to be consistent with the step change in our autumnal climate seen 25 years ago.

UK Weather Trends #37 – Summer 2025

September 7, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The 2025 meteorological summer in the UK was the warmest on record. This came less from heatwaves setting new temperate peaks and more from steady warmth throughout June, July & August. Overall it was sunnier and drier than usual in the UK but not to any significant degree. As a result, whilst the 1st principal component confirms the summer can be regarded as a “good summer”, it was a long way from being an exceptional summer like 1976 & 1995.

UK Weather Trends #36 – Spring 2025

June 6, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Spring 2025 in the UK was both the hottest & sunniest on record as well as the 5th driest. For sunshine, 2025 was even more extraordinary than the exceptionally sunny spring in 2020 and was the result of 3 very sunny months in a row. For temperature, there was no doubt in my mind this time the data was correct unlike last year when I questioned whether spring 2024 was in fact the warmest in record. The Met Office has not corrected the record so apparently it was.

UK Weather Trends #35 – Winter 2025

March 5, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Winter 2025 in the UK was unremarkable. Last year I explained I believe our winters are following a steady trend to warmer and wetter winters which began in the early 1980s. The data for the winter just gone doesn’t my conclusions.

Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling

March 1, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

All organisations want to understand what happened in the past and what will happen in the future. The use of statistics and statistical thinking is essential to be a better forecaster but that doesn’t mean it is easy! At the same time, we are bombarded with forecasts in the media which can make it difficult to decide which forecasts to pay attention to and which can be ignored.

My course “Identifying Trends & Making Forecasts” is all about doing the basics right when it comes to analysing trends and making predictions. To support this course, here are links to material in the public domain covering the following themes:-