Seat forecast – Page 2

UK General Election 2017 Seat Forecast #3 – Cardiff South & Penarth, Wales

May 8, 2017 By Nigel Marriott

This is the third of my seat forecasts for the 2017 general election and my first for a Welsh seat. By co-incidence the second Welsh Barometer poll was published today so I am able to explore this seat using a Welsh specific poll.

My Prediction – LAB Hold but now a very close marginal for what used to be a safe Labour seat

UK General Election 2017 Seat Forecast #2 – Kensington, London

May 2, 2017 By Nigel Marriott

This is the second of my seat forecasts for the 2017 general election. I have to be honest, it never occurred to me that I would be covering Kensington as that seems a straightforward seat to forecast. However, Kensington now has the distinction of being the first seat to have a constituency poll published and the results provide an insight as to which might be the best forecasting model to use.

My Prediction – LAB Hold but now a very close marginal for what used to be a safe Labour seat

My Prediction – Straightforward CON Hold but first signs that this is a Brexit realignment election