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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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All I want for Christmas is football!

December 21, 2021 By Nigel

Will there be any football this Christmas?  The Omicron variant of COVID19 is wreaking havoc with football and rugby schedules and the traditional Boxing Day lineup is in danger of being cancelled.  So what will football fans do instead?  The good news is I am giving a Christmas present to all football supporter that is almost as good as the real thing.  All you need are 2 packs of playing cards, a pen and paper or a spreadsheet and you can play a simple football simulation game which guarantees fun and excitement for all.

[Read more…] about All I want for Christmas is football!

Filed Under: Sport Tagged With: EPL, Football, Playing Cards, Premier League, Probability, Simulation, Sport Analytics

Coronavirus #2 – What sample size does Boris need to lift all restrictions?

April 2, 2020 By Nigel

April Fools day 2020 saw the hive mind of social media asking what the sample size should be to measure the extent of the Coronavirus in the UK.  I could see that many people responding were reaching for standard methodologies which are usually are based on specifying a desired confidence interval.  In doing so, they were overlooking a much more effective and relevant alternative based on the methodology of Acceptance Sampling, first developed by the US Military in World War 2.

[Read more…] about Coronavirus #2 – What sample size does Boris need to lift all restrictions?

Filed Under: Misc, Polling Tagged With: Acceptance Sampling, Bayes rule, Binomial Distribution, Coronavirus, Covid19, Probability, Sample size, Statistical Training

Ethnicity #1 – Is all white alright?

July 18, 2019 By Nigel

You have just started work for a new employer and with you joining, the company now has 25 employees.  All are white including you.  Would you raise your eyebrows at that?

[Read more…] about Ethnicity #1 – Is all white alright?

Filed Under: Diversity Tagged With: Bayes rule, Binomial Distribution, Discrimination, Ethnicity, Probability, Workplace diversity

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