Football

Sporting GOATs #2 – Are Man City now a Dynasty?

June 12, 2023 By Nigel

Manchester City have won the Champions League at long last after beating Inter Milan 1-0 in Istanbul. They become the 6th English club to reach the summit of the European club landscape and it their 17th trophy in 13 years. Does that mean we can now call Man City a Dynasty comparable to the two undisputed dynasties of Liverpool in the 70s & 80s and Manchester United in the 90s & 00s? I am sure Man City fans will say yes but I say not yet.

Trophy Winners #1 – England Men’s Club Football 1889 to 2023

June 11, 2023 By Nigel

The 2022/23 football season is over and it now 54 seasons since my team Newcastle Utd last won a trophy but we came closer than previous seasons!

For supporters of other teams, especially Man City, Man Utd and West Ham, your life will have been more fortunate but if you can’t remember the last time your team won a trophy then why not download my spreadsheet listing all trophy winners since 1889 to find out.

Trophy Winners #2 – England Women’s Club Football 1992 to 2023

May 27, 2023 By Nigel

The 2022/23 Women’s Super League (WSL) ended with both Chelsea & Man Utd achieving the double, Chelsea as double winners of the Super League & FA Cup and Man Utd as double runner ups in both competitions. This was Chelsea’s 4th consecutive league title.

If you are new to the women’s game in England (especially following the Lionesses winning the European Championship last year), why not download my spreadsheet listing all trophy winners since 1992 to find out which teams are the GOATs of English women’s football?

All I want for Christmas is football!

December 21, 2021 By Nigel

Will there be any football this Christmas? The Omicron variant of COVID19 is wreaking havoc with football and rugby schedules and the traditional Boxing Day lineup is in danger of being cancelled. So what will football fans do instead? The good news is I am giving a Christmas present to all football supporter that is almost as good as the real thing. All you need are 2 packs of playing cards, a pen and paper or a spreadsheet and you can play a simple football simulation game which guarantees fun and excitement for all.

EPL 2017/18 #5 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 36

April 28, 2018 By Nigel

With only 3 or 4 games to go for the teams of the Premier League, most of the season’s excitement has dissipated. Man City have wrapped up the title, the top 7 who will be playing in Europe next season is more or less settled and the former 10-team dogfight for relegation has resolved itself with a 4 point gap between the bottom 3 and the rest. Probably, the only remaining uncertainties are who will take 4th place (Spurs or Chelsea) and will Southampton escape relegation at the expense of Swansea?

EPL 2017/18 #4 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 33

April 6, 2018 By Nigel

After many weeks of a relegation dogfight involving up to 10 teams, it now appears that an exciting finish to the 2018 EPL season is becoming less likely as a gap opens up between the bottom 3 and the rest. After 34 matches, another gap is opening up between the 4 prediction methods I use and one method so far has a 74% success rate in predicting the match outcome.

EPL 2017/18 #3 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 30

March 9, 2018 By Nigel

My first published attempt to predict the outcomes of Premier League matches got off to a good start last week with 23% of my predictions getting the right scoreline and 52% getting the right outcome. I have updated my prediction of the final league which continues to point to an incredibly tight relegation battle, especially for my team Newcastle United.

EPL 2017/18 #2 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 29

March 3, 2018 By Nigel

With 10 games to go, the 2018 EPL is now entering its final quarter and supporters of all teams are starting to wonder where their team will finish in the league. As a Newcastle United supporter, my team is stuck right in the middle of one of the tightest relegation battles in living memory. At the other end of the table, my wife’s team Spurs are almost certainly out of the running for the title but Champions League qualification is definitely in their sights. To set expectations, I have used a statistical method known as Poisson modelling to predict the final league table come May 13th and I will update this post after every round of games between now and then so please bookmark this page.

Sporting GOATs #1 – English football clubs

September 9, 2017 By Nigel

My team Newcastle United are also known as the Magpies but how much of a GOAT are they? In recent years, this acronym has become popular as a shorthand for Greatest Of All Time. Given that the Magpies have not won a trophy in the 40+ years that I have supported them, I know they are not the number 1 GOAT in English football but where would they sit in a GOAT table?

Ranking tables are extremely common in sport and sport analytics as they are easily understood by fans. If I want to compile a ranking of all English football clubs, there are two decisions I have to make:

Over what time period will the data come from? (ERA)
On what measure will I rank the clubs? (METRIC)

In this post I will use 3 eras and 3 metrics to creating 9 GOAT tables in all. Read on to find out which club is #1 GOAT! [Read more…] about Sporting GOATs #1 – English football clubs

EPL 2017/18 #1 – What are you expecting for your team this season?

August 12, 2017 By Nigel

The 2017/18 English Premier League (EPL) kicked off yesterday with Arsenal beating Hull 4-3. Tomorrow, my team Newcastle United will be playing my wife’s team Tottenham Hotspur so marital harmony could be in short supply! Be that as it may, what should fans of the Magpies and Spurs be expecting this season? Newcastle are a recently promoted team whilst Spurs were runners up last season Is there a way to set realistic expectations for the 2017/18 season?