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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK Local Elections #1 – My West England Metro Mayor 2021 Election Forecast

May 2, 2021 By Nigel

It will be close but I am predicting that the Conservatives will hold onto the West England Combined Authority Metropolitan Mayoralty on 6th May 2021.  By rights, they should not be winning but the 3 parties opposing them do not seem to understand the subtleties of the Supplementary Vote (SV) that is used in this election and they will end up splitting their votes to their detriment.

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Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: B&NES, Bath, Bristol, Conservative, EU Referendum, Greens, Labour, Lib Dems, local election, Majority, Metro Mayor, South Gloucs, Supplementary Vote, WECA, West England

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