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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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By Elections #3 – Hartlepool + Chesham & Amersham + Batley & Spen = Brexit Realignment?

May 24, 2021 By Nigel

The Conservatives victory in the Hartlepool by-election means the Brexit realignment of British politics is still taking place … or does it?  In fact, Labour’s defeat in Hartlepool for the first time in over 60 years should be put down to tactical voting rather than Brexit realignment, at least for now.   It will be the two upcoming by-elections in Batley & Spen on 1st July representing the Red Wall and Chesham & Amersham on 17th June 2021 representing the Blue Sea that will answer the question “Is Brexit realignment is still continuing or did it end in December 2019?”

[Read more…] about By Elections #3 – Hartlepool + Chesham & Amersham + Batley & Spen = Brexit Realignment?

Filed Under: Elections Tagged With: Batley & Spen, Blue Sea, Brexit, By-elections, Chesham & Amersham, Conservative, elections, General Election 2024, Greens, Hartlepool, Labour, Lib Dems, Politics, Realignment, Red Wall, Swing, Tactical Voting

UK Local Elections #1 – My West England Metro Mayor 2021 Election Forecast

May 2, 2021 By Nigel

It will be close but I am predicting that the Conservatives will hold onto the West England Combined Authority Metropolitan Mayoralty on 6th May 2021.  By rights, they should not be winning but the 3 parties opposing them do not seem to understand the subtleties of the Supplementary Vote (SV) that is used in this election and they will end up splitting their votes to their detriment.

[Read more…] about UK Local Elections #1 – My West England Metro Mayor 2021 Election Forecast

Filed Under: Elections Tagged With: B&NES, Bath, Bristol, Conservative, EU Referendum, Greens, Labour, Lib Dems, local election, Majority, Metro Mayor, South Gloucs, Supplementary Vote, WECA, West England

UK General Elections #6 – Keir Starmer’s train to Downing Street

March 21, 2021 By Nigel

Keir Starmer has to match what Clement Attlee did in 1945 and beat what Tony Blair did in 1997 if he wants to form a Labour government at the next election.  To arrive at Downing Street by the end of 2024, Starmer must get his party to board an InterCity 125 train and spend the next 3 years following the tracks I lay out in this article.  As I will show, whichever track they take has to go through 125 English Conservative seats, most of which are in between cities.  Hence InterCity 125 becomes the easy to remember name of Labour’s list of target seats.

[Read more…] about UK General Elections #6 – Keir Starmer’s train to Downing Street

Filed Under: Elections Tagged With: Boundary review, Brexit, Conservative, elections, EU Referendum, General Election 2024, Labour, Lib Dems, Majority, Parliament, Politics, SNP, Swing, Tories

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