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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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UK Local Elections #2C – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – Review of My Forecast

May 6, 2025 By Nigel

Labour have retained the West of England Combined Authority (WECA) Mayoralty  As I predicted, the contest was won with less than a quarter of the vote and with a small majority (less than 3%).  Unfortunately, I had the Greens winning the mayoralty so on the face of it, this is a forecasting error for me.  However, when voters are as fragmented as they are today, measuring forecasting skill is not as straightforward as it might seem.

 

[Read more…] about UK Local Elections #2C – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – Review of My Forecast

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting, Polling Tagged With: B&NES, Bath, Bristol, Conservative, Election forecasting, FPTP, Greens, Labour, Lib Dems, local election, Majority, Metro Mayor, South Gloucs, Supplementary Vote, WECA, West England

UK Local Elections #2B – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Final Forecast

April 27, 2025 By Nigel

The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast.  My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen before in England.  All five parties have reasons to be optimistic but as of now, I and most other forecasters make the Greens favourites to win the 2025 WECA mayoralty.  With an election this tight, the parties get-out-the-vote efforts will play a big part in the final outcome.

All forecasts, charts & tables are based on the latest polls as of 26th April 2025.

[Read more…] about UK Local Elections #2B – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Final Forecast

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting, Polling Tagged With: B&NES, Bath, Bristol, Conservative, FPTP, Greens, Labour, Lib Dems, local election, Majority, Metro Mayor, South Gloucs, Supplementary Vote, WECA, West England

UK Local Elections #2A – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Initial Forecast

April 13, 2025 By Nigel

The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with less than a quarter of all votes cast.  My analysis shows it is a 5-way marginal, the likes of which have never been seen in England before.  Why no-one has polled WECA is a mystery because this is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable elections I’ve ever seen.

My forecast puts the Greens first with 24% but it also puts Reform, Lib Dems & Labour just behind with each on 20% and the Conservative and Independent candidates bringing up the rear.  I am using a weighted average of four models of which 2 have Labour winning, 1 has the Greens winning and the 4th model (with the highest weight) has Reform winning.  That’s how unpredictable the election is and why we need a WECA specific opinion poll!

This article is based on polls as of 7th April 2025.  My updated forecast based on polls as of 26th April can be found here.

[Read more…] about UK Local Elections #2A – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Initial Forecast

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting, Polling Tagged With: B&NES, Bath, Bristol, Conservative, FPTP, Greens, Labour, Lib Dems, local election, Majority, Metro Mayor, South Gloucs, Supplementary Vote, WECA, West England

UK General Election 2024 #2 – My Forecasting Model

June 22, 2024 By Nigel

My UK General Election 2024 forecasting model will be a top down version which I last used in 2010.  Top down approaches first predict how many seats each party will win in total before seeking to identify which seats each party wins.  This differs from the bottom-up approach I used in 2017 & 2019 where I forecast the outcome for each seat first and then aggregated the forecasts.

Here I explain how my 2024 forecast will be made but it finishes with a warning that I may have to dump my 2024 model in favour of the forecasting approach I used for the 2015 general election.

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Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: Conservative, Election forecasting, elections, Forecasting model, General Election 2024, Labour, Politics, Seats, Votes

UK General Election 2024 #1 – Going beyond the swing

February 18, 2024 By Nigel

Labour is on course for a crushing landslide later this year… or are they?  Many parallels with 1997 are being drawn at the moment but it’s too early to be making detailed forecasts.  Instead, I want to lay the foundations for my election forecast later this year by looking at what 100 years of UK electoral history is telling me.  I tell this story by assigning probabilities to 10 specific outcomes of interest and finish by explaining why 2024 is more likely to be a repeat of 2001 than 1997.

I remind you I was deemed the most accurate forecaster of the 2019 general election.  This article is the first in what I hope will be a series of articles which lead me to hold on to that accolade!

[Read more…] about UK General Election 2024 #1 – Going beyond the swing

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: Conservative, elections, General Election 2024, Labour, Lib Dems, Majority, Opinion Polls, Parliament, Politics, Probability, Swing, Turnout, Votes

By Elections #3 – Hartlepool + Chesham & Amersham + Batley & Spen = Brexit Realignment?

May 24, 2021 By Nigel

The Conservatives victory in the Hartlepool by-election means the Brexit realignment of British politics is still taking place … or does it?  In fact, Labour’s defeat in Hartlepool for the first time in over 60 years should be put down to tactical voting rather than Brexit realignment, at least for now.   It will be the two upcoming by-elections in Batley & Spen on 1st July representing the Red Wall and Chesham & Amersham on 17th June 2021 representing the Blue Sea that will answer the question “Is Brexit realignment is still continuing or did it end in December 2019?”

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Filed Under: Elections Tagged With: Batley & Spen, Blue Sea, Brexit, By-elections, Chesham & Amersham, Conservative, elections, General Election 2024, Greens, Hartlepool, Labour, Lib Dems, Politics, Realignment, Red Wall, Swing, Tactical Voting

UK Local Elections #1 – My West England Metro Mayor 2021 Election Forecast

May 2, 2021 By Nigel

It will be close but I am predicting that the Conservatives will hold onto the West England Combined Authority Metropolitan Mayoralty on 6th May 2021.  By rights, they should not be winning but the 3 parties opposing them do not seem to understand the subtleties of the Supplementary Vote (SV) that is used in this election and they will end up splitting their votes to their detriment.

[Read more…] about UK Local Elections #1 – My West England Metro Mayor 2021 Election Forecast

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: B&NES, Bath, Bristol, Conservative, EU Referendum, Greens, Labour, Lib Dems, local election, Majority, Metro Mayor, South Gloucs, Supplementary Vote, WECA, West England

UK General Elections #6 – Keir Starmer’s train to Downing Street

March 21, 2021 By Nigel

Keir Starmer has to match what Clement Attlee did in 1945 and beat what Tony Blair did in 1997 if he wants to form a Labour government at the next election.  To arrive at Downing Street by the end of 2024, Starmer must get his party to board an InterCity 125 train and spend the next 3 years following the tracks I lay out in this article.  As I will show, whichever track they take has to go through 125 English Conservative seats, most of which are in between cities.  Hence InterCity 125 becomes the easy to remember name of Labour’s list of target seats.

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Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: Boundary review, Brexit, Conservative, elections, EU Referendum, General Election 2024, Labour, Lib Dems, Majority, Parliament, Politics, SNP, Swing, Tories

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UK Local Elections #2B – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Final Forecast

The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with … [Read More...] about UK Local Elections #2B – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Final Forecast

UK Local Elections #2A – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Initial Forecast

The West England Combined Authority (WECA) Metro Mayor election of 2025 will probably be won with … [Read More...] about UK Local Elections #2A – 2025 West England Mayoral Election – My Initial Forecast

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