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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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Forecasting#1 – How do you identify a good forecaster?

April 3, 2017 By Nigel

“I think the people in this country have had enough of experts”

Michael Gove, Sky News, 3rd June 2016

This was one of the most memorable quotes during the EU referendum in 2016 and came in response to a question as to why the forecasts of a whole list of organisations such as the IMF should be ignored.  It prompted a flurry of rebuttals and articles supporting or damning him and the debate has not gone away.

Like so many quotes, it has already become distorted.  I strongly recommend you listen to the full question and answer because here is his quote in its entirety. 

“I think the people in this country have had enough of experts… from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.”

When I read this full quote I realised I am in complete agreement with Michael Gove. 

[Read more…] about Forecasting#1 – How do you identify a good forecaster?

Filed Under: Featured blog, Forecasting Tagged With: EU Referendum, Experts, forecasting, Forecasting model, Forecasts

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