Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling

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All organisations want to understand what has happened in the past and what will happen in the future.  The use of statistics and statistical thinking is essential to be a better forecaster but that doesn’t mean it is easy to do!  At the same time, we are bombarded with forecasts in the media and that can make it difficult to decide which forecasts to pay attention to and which can be ignored.

My course “Identifying Trends & Making Forecasts” is all about doing the basics right when it comes to analysing trends and making predictions.  To support this course, this post makes available a variety of material in the public domain covering the following themes:-

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Forecasting#1 – How do you identify a good forecaster?

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“I think the people in this country have had enough of experts”

Michael Gove, Sky News, 3rd June 2016

This was one of the most memorable quotes during the EU referendum in 2016 and came in response to a question as to why the forecasts of a whole list of organisations such as the IMF should be ignored.  It prompted a flurry of rebuttals and articles supporting or damning him and the debate has not gone away.

Like so many quotes, it has already become distorted.  I strongly recommend you listen to the full question and answer because here is his quote in its entirety. 

“I think the people in this country have had enough of experts… from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.”

When I read this full quote I realised I am in complete agreement with Michael Gove. 

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UK General Election 2015 #1 – My Forecast

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In two days time, the results of the 2015 General Election will be in. Will there be another coalition? Will Labour get in? What about the SNP in Scotland? You can now see my forecast of the 2015 General Election presented as a YouTube clip and discover many interesting facts about elections in Britain.

The bottom line is that the polls will be wrong and the pundits will be caught by surprise!