An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
A good forecaster should always provide an easily accessible list of forecasts made, how the forecast was arrived at and how accurate it ended up being. At long last, here is my election forecasting track record updated with the 2024 UK General Election so finally I am a good forecaster I hope!
[Read more…] about Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?
All organisations want to understand what happened in the past and what will happen in the future. The use of statistics and statistical thinking is essential to be a better forecaster but that doesn’t mean it is easy! At the same time, we are bombarded with forecasts in the media which can make it difficult to decide which forecasts to pay attention to and which can be ignored.
My course “Identifying Trends & Making Forecasts” is all about doing the basics right when it comes to analysing trends and making predictions. To support this course, here are links to material in the public domain covering the following themes:-
[Read more…] about Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling
Michael Gove, Sky News, 3rd June 2016
This was one of the most memorable quotes during the EU referendum in 2016 and came in response to a question as to why the forecasts of a whole list of organisations such as the IMF should be ignored. It prompted a flurry of rebuttals and articles supporting or damning him and the debate has not gone away.
Like so many quotes, it has already become distorted. I strongly recommend you listen to the full question and answer because here is his quote in its entirety.
When I read this full quote I realised I am in complete agreement with Michael Gove.
[Read more…] about Forecasting#1 – How do you identify a good forecaster?
In two days time, the results of the 2015 General Election will be in. Will there be another coalition? Will Labour get in? What about the SNP in Scotland? You can now see my forecast of the 2015 General Election presented as a YouTube clip and discover many interesting facts about elections in Britain.
The bottom line is that the polls will be wrong and the pundits will be caught by surprise!
