• Blog home
  • Elections
  • Polling
  • Sport
  • Weather
  • Forecasting
  • Diversity
  • Stats Training
  • Misc
  • Archive
  • Twitter
  • Back to Marriott Statistical Consulting

Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

You are here: Home / Archives for Forecasts

Rugby World Cup #4 – Who will win in 2019? – Final

October 30, 2019 By Nigel

England will take on South Africa in the 2019 Rugby World Cup final this weekend and I am predicting a win for England by 1 to 6 points.  In other words, it will be close and exciting!

[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #4 – Who will win in 2019? – Final

Filed Under: Forecasting, Sport Tagged With: Forecasts, Rugby, RWC2019, Sport Analytics, World Cup

Rugby World Cup #3 – Who will win in 2019? – Model Evaluation

October 30, 2019 By Nigel

After 43 matches with 37 correctly predicted, the stage is set for an epic final between England & South Africa to settle the 2019 Rugby World Cup (Men’s).  Ahead of making a prediction for that match, I have examined my model in depth and in this post I explore whether or not the model needs to be adjusted.

[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #3 – Who will win in 2019? – Model Evaluation

Filed Under: Forecasting, Sport Tagged With: Forecasts, Rugby, RWC2019, Sport Analytics, World Cup

Rugby World Cup #2 – Who will win in 2019? – Knockout Round

October 18, 2019 By Nigel

It’s the quarter finals tomorrow and it’s time for me to predict the outcomes using World Rugby’s rankings.  Although I got 33 out of 37 matches right in the pool stages, the 4 errors are enough to change my prediction of who will win.

[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #2 – Who will win in 2019? – Knockout Round

Filed Under: Forecasting, Sport Tagged With: Forecasts, Rugby, RWC2019, Sport Analytics, World Cup

Rugby World Cup #1 – Who will win in 2019? – Pool Stage

September 19, 2019 By Nigel

Augustin Pichot, vice-president of World Rugby, may not like its ranking system but ahead of the 2019 Rugby World Cup (Men’s), I have been able to use rankings to correctly predict 80% of international matches since 2017.  For the world cup that starts this week, I used a dynamic ranking model to predict all matches and it shows that 4 countries cannot be separated for the trophy so we are in for some very exciting matches!

[Read more…] about Rugby World Cup #1 – Who will win in 2019? – Pool Stage

Filed Under: Forecasting, Sport Tagged With: Forecasts, Rugby, RWC2019, Sport Analytics, World Cup

Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling

March 1, 2019 By Nigel

All organisations want to understand what has happened in the past and what will happen in the future.  The use of statistics and statistical thinking is essential to be a better forecaster but that doesn’t mean it is easy to do!  At the same time, we are bombarded with forecasts in the media and that can make it difficult to decide which forecasts to pay attention to and which can be ignored.

My course “Identifying Trends & Making Forecasts” is all about doing the basics right when it comes to analysing trends and making predictions.  To support this course, this post makes available a variety of material in the public domain covering the following themes:-

[Read more…] about Stats Training Materials – Forecasting & Risk Modelling

Filed Under: Stats Training Tagged With: forecasting, Forecasting model, Forecasts, Statistical Training, Teaching Materials, trend analysis

Forecasting#2 – Do Election Pollsters Show Forecasting Skill?

September 28, 2018 By Nigel

As I write this, a plethora of economic forecasts are making the rounds in the news in the UK.  In all cases, the forecasters have failed to publish their track record and these days, I will not pay attention to what they say unless their forecasts are accompanied by a track record.  But, how does one go about presenting a forecasting track record to prove that one has forecasting skill?  To demonstrate, I will analyse how well opinion polls have predicted General Elections in the UK and measure their track record.  I must confess I was surprised at what I found out and I would urge all opinion pollsters to take note of my results.

[Read more…] about Forecasting#2 – Do Election Pollsters Show Forecasting Skill?

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting, Polling Tagged With: Election forecasting, Forecasts, Opinion Polls, Track Record

EPL 2017/18 #5 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 36

April 28, 2018 By Nigel

With only 3 or 4 games to go for the teams of the Premier League, most of the season’s excitement has dissipated.  Man City have wrapped up the title, the top 7 who will be playing in Europe next season is more or less settled and the former 10-team dogfight for relegation has resolved itself with a 4 point gap between the bottom 3 and the rest.  Probably, the only remaining uncertainties are who will take 4th place (Spurs or Chelsea) and will Southampton escape relegation at the expense of Swansea?

[Read more…] about EPL 2017/18 #5 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 36

Filed Under: Forecasting, Sport Tagged With: EPL, EPL 2017/18, Football, Forecasts, Premier League, Sport Analytics

EPL 2017/18 #4 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 33

April 6, 2018 By Nigel

After many weeks of a relegation dogfight involving up to 10 teams, it now appears that an exciting finish to the 2018 EPL season is becoming less likely as a gap opens up between the bottom 3 and the rest.  After 34 matches, another gap is opening up between the 4 prediction methods I use and one method so far has a 74% success rate in predicting the match outcome.

[Read more…] about EPL 2017/18 #4 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 33

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: EPL, EPL 2017/18, Football, Forecasts, Premier League, Sport Analytics

6 Nations #12 – Who will win in 2018? – Week 5

March 17, 2018 By Nigel

We now know the answer to who will win the 2018 6 Nations Championship.  Ireland won the title with a match to spare after England failure against France resulted in my second forecasting error of the championship.  There is still much to play for though in the last week with the main question being whether England do to Ireland what Ireland did to England last year and stop them from winning a Grand Slam.  Whilst I am cheering on England, it is St. Patricks Day and I do have some Irish blood in me so part of me does wish Ireland well.

[Read more…] about 6 Nations #12 – Who will win in 2018? – Week 5

Filed Under: Forecasting, Sport Tagged With: 6 Nations, Forecasts, Rugby, Sport Analytics

EPL 2017/18 #3 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 30

March 9, 2018 By Nigel

My first published attempt to predict the outcomes of Premier League matches got off to a good start last week with 23% of my predictions getting the right scoreline and 52% getting the right outcome.  I have updated my prediction of the final league which continues to point to an incredibly tight relegation battle, especially for my team Newcastle United.

[Read more…] about EPL 2017/18 #3 – My Prediction of the Final League Table – Round 30

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: EPL, EPL 2017/18, Football, Forecasts, Premier League, Sport Analytics

  • Go to page 1
  • Go to page 2
  • Go to page 3
  • Go to Next Page »

Search this site

More blogs

Pay Gap Data #6 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2022?

This post was updated on 4th January 2023 with the latest data The government requires all … [Read More...] about Pay Gap Data #6 – Where can I find gender pay gap data for 2022?

UK Weather Trends #24 – Annual Temperatures in 2022

The 2022 calendar year was the hottest year on record in the UK beating the previous high recorded … [Read More...] about UK Weather Trends #24 – Annual Temperatures in 2022

UK Weather Tracker #71 – December 2022

After an entire meteorological year where the temperature above the median for ever single month, … [Read More...] about UK Weather Tracker #71 – December 2022

Cricket #1 – Sir Donald Bradman, the 9 Sigma GOAT

Sir Donald Bradman is the GOAT (Greatest of All Time) of sporting GOATs.  All cricket lovers accept … [Read More...] about Cricket #1 – Sir Donald Bradman, the 9 Sigma GOAT

UK Weather Trends #23 – Autumn 2022

The UK autumn in 2022 was the 3rd warmest on record and consistent with the step change in autumnal … [Read More...] about UK Weather Trends #23 – Autumn 2022

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Join our newsletter mailing list

Receive latest news, articles and offers

Select the categories of interest:

We are GDPR compliant. Read our privacy and Cookie policy for more info.

Check your inbox or spam folder to confirm your subscription.

Copyright © 2023 ·Registered in England, Company No. 5577275, VAT No. 883304029. Registered Office – 65 Bristol Road, Keynsham, Bristol, BS31 1EG