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Nigel Marriott's Blog

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Electoral Trends #1 – The Fragmentation of the West

December 5, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Last month’s General Election in The Netherlands was won by a party with less than 17% of the national vote.  Dutch voters, politicians and pundits are now discussing what this means for a governing coalition which is likely to take a number of months complete.  For myself, the election was yet another data point showing the fragmentation of the electorate in the West is the key trend over the last 40 years.  As yet, there is no sign of this trend coming to an end and what the future holds I cannot tell.

**Update 24/04/26 – An updated version of the main chart below can be found at the end of this article**

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Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: Australia, Election forecasting, election system, elections, Fragmentation, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden, trend analysis, UK

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