Australia

Electoral Trends #1 – The Fragmentation of the West

December 5, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Last month’s General Election in The Netherlands was won by a party with less than 17% of the national vote. Dutch voters, politicians and pundits are now discussing what this means for a governing coalition which is likely to take a number of months complete. For myself, the election was yet another data point showing the fragmentation of the electorate in the West is the key trend over the last 40 years. As yet, there is no sign of this trend coming to an end and what the future holds I cannot tell.

Voice Referendum #2 – My Forecast Reviewed

November 5, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

Australians rejected the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14^th October 2023. NO won the national vote by 20.1 percentage points and the state count 6-0 but the more important question is was my forecast right?

Voice Referendum #1 – My Forecast Explained

October 13, 2023 By Nigel Marriott

Australians will reject the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14^th October 2023. My forecast is for NO to win the national vote by 17 percentage points and win the state count 6-0.

This article was first published on 11th October 2023. My forecast then was for NO to win 16 points and the state count 6-0.