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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

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Voice Referendum #2 – My Forecast Reviewed

November 5, 2023 By Nigel

Australians rejected the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14th October 2023.  NO won the national vote by 20.1 percentage points and the state count 6-0 but the more important question is was my forecast right?

[Read more…] about Voice Referendum #2 – My Forecast Reviewed

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting Tagged With: Australia, Brexit, Election forecasting, Forecasting model, Parliament, Politics, Referendum, trend analysis, Trend extrapolation, Voice

Voice Referendum #1 – My Forecast Explained

October 13, 2023 By Nigel

Australians will reject the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14th October 2023.  My forecast is for NO to win the national vote by 17 percentage points and win the state count 6-0.

This article was first published on 11th October 2023.  My forecast then was for NO to win 16 points and the state count 6-0.

[Read more…] about Voice Referendum #1 – My Forecast Explained

Filed Under: Elections, Forecasting, Polling Tagged With: Australia, Brexit, Election forecasting, Forecasting model, Parliament, Politics, Referendum, trend analysis, Trend extrapolation, Voice

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