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Nigel Marriott's Blog

An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future

You are here: Home / Archives for weather trends

UK Weather Trends #40 – Winter 2026

March 6, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

Winter 2026 in the UK was warmer, wetter and darker than normal but not the extent I expected given the unrelenting days without the sun in January.  So for those people in Aberdeen who went 46 days without seeing the sun, it could have been worse!

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #40 – Winter 2026

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #39 – Annual Temperatures in 2025

January 6, 2026 By Nigel Marriott

The year 2025 was both the hottest and 2nd hottest year on record in the UK.  Last year, I used a CUSUM Chart to conclude “if the calendar year average is greater than 9.48 degrees Celsius and the meteorological year average is greater than 9.33 degrees Celsius … (this will) signal an upwards trend change“.  By co-incidence, the average 24-hour temperature across the UK in 2025 was 10.09 degrees Celsius for both the calendar (Jan to Dec) and the meteorological (Dec to Nov) years which is clearly higher than these thresholds.  It’s only taken me four years of writing to conclude a new upward trend in UK temperatures has begun.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #39 – Annual Temperatures in 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: Control Chart, CUSUM, SPC, Statistical Process Control, t-test, temperature, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends

UK Weather Trends #38 – Autumn 2025

December 3, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The UK autumn in 2025 was warmer and wetter than usual but not exceptionally so and continues to be consistent with the step change in our autumnal climate seen 25 years ago.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #38 – Autumn 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #37 – Summer 2025

September 7, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The 2025 meteorological summer in the UK was the warmest on record.  This came less from heatwaves setting new temperate peaks and more from steady warmth throughout June, July & August.  Overall it was sunnier and drier than usual in the UK but not to any significant degree.  As a result, whilst the 1st principal component confirms the summer can be regarded as a “good summer”, it was a long way from being an exceptional summer like 1976 & 1995.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #37 – Summer 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #36 – Spring 2025

June 6, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Spring 2025 in the UK was both the hottest & sunniest on record as well as the 5th driest.  For sunshine, 2025 was even more extraordinary than the exceptionally sunny spring in 2020 and was the result of 3 very sunny months in a row.  For temperature, there was no doubt in my mind this time the data was correct unlike last year when I questioned whether spring 2024 was in fact the warmest in record.  The Met Office has not corrected the record so apparently it was.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #36 – Spring 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #35 – Winter 2025

March 5, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

Winter 2025 in the UK was unremarkable.  Last year I explained I believe our winters are following a steady trend to warmer and wetter winters which began in the early 1980s.  The data for the winter just gone doesn’t my conclusions.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #35 – Winter 2025

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #34 – Annual Temperatures in 2024

January 7, 2025 By Nigel Marriott

The 2024 calendar year was the 4th hottest year on record in the UK.  Last year, I used a Control Chart to conclude “a step change upwards (in UK temperatures) has taken place but the pace of change is not yet clear“.  I am now less confident in my conclusion after updating with 2024 data, especially when I look at temperature trends based on the meteorological year of December to November instead.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #34 – Annual Temperatures in 2024

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: SPC, Statistical Process Control, t-test, temperature, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends

UK Weather Trends #33 – Autumn 2024

December 4, 2024 By Nigel Marriott

The UK autumn in 2024 was essentially unremarkable and mostly consistent with the step change in autumnal climate seen 25 years ago.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #33 – Autumn 2024

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #32 – Summer 2024

September 4, 2024 By Nigel Marriott

The 2024 meteorological summer in the UK was unremarkable on all weather variables.  In fact 2024 was so unremarkable that it is in fact the most “normal” summer of the last 114 years when I compare the data to the last 50 years which I regard as “living memory”.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #32 – Summer 2024

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

UK Weather Trends #31 – Spring 2024

June 4, 2024 By Nigel Marriott

Spring 2024 in the UK was the hottest on record.  In some ways this is surprising given it was also the 10th dullest and 6th wettest spring on record which is inconsistent with trends over last 25 years and with the typical correlations seen in spring.  With any other dataset, I would ask for a check on the temperature data to see if it is correct.

[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #31 – Spring 2024

Filed Under: Archive Tagged With: multivariate data, Presenting data, principal components analysis, standardisation, trend analysis, Weather, weather trends, z-scores

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