On 30th September 2020, CL:AIRE (the industry body for the land contamination & remediation sector) published new professional guidance for “Comparing Soil Contamination Data with a Critical Concentration“. The 46-page document advises how to use statistics when assessing land contamination and whether it is safe for development. I was the lead author of the guidance and I spent 4 years working with CL:AIRE’s steering committee on what the guidance should cover. The 4 years were bookended by two statements published by the ASA (American Statistical Association) on the use & misuse of P-Values in 2016 & 2019 and in writing this guidance I felt was I an ambassador for turning those statements into something that could used by non-statisticians to make real life decisions that have an impact on us all.
The weather in the UK in September 2020 was unremarkable. Can’t say more than that!
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #44 – September 2020
Last updated on 27th September 2020 but downloadable spreadsheet in section 3a was updated on 19th October 2020. I will update the post when I get the time!
The latest data for COVID19 (Coronavirus) cases in England as of Saturday 26th September 2020 shows the number of people testing positive for COVID19 is up 60% from a week ago but this masks extreme regional disparities that make the national trend meaningless. The North is in the grip of a second wave unlike the South which is not. Unless recent trends in the North abate, the scenario of 50k positive tests per day by the end of October recently postulated by the Chief Scientific Officer remains feasible.
Last year, I predicted that the 2020 summer would not be good and I was right. On average it was duller, wetter and warmer than normal.
An unremarkable August, apart from a brief hot & stormy period, means all 3 months of the 2020 UK meteorological summer have been unremarkable. I suppose we can’t complain given the remarkable spring we had!
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #43 – August 2020
I’m obviously a biased sample point as I thought July had been a pleasant month weather wise but the latest data from the UK Met Office shows it was unremarkable on all fronts.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #42 – July 2020
Imagine where you work, the median women earns 33% less than the median man where you work. Although your workplace is gender balanced with 50:50 men:women, the pay gap exists because 1 in 4 of managers and 3 in 4 of the lowest paid admin staff are women. How long will it take for the pay gap to disappear assuming that all future recruitment at all levels have 50:50 candidate pools with men and women equally likely to be appointed to the role?
Up to 25 years i.e. a generation
During the first wave of the COVID19 epidemic, the daily number of deaths published by Public Health England (PHE) has been the main headline in the news. On 17th July, Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health, called for a review of this time series after a blog published by Yoon Loke & Carl Heneghan of Oxford University questioned whether definition used by this time series was appropriate. I myself had noticed a change in the PHEr time series in my tracker of COVID19 deaths in England but I hadn’t understood why this might have been the case. After looking at the data again in more detail, I have concluded that this time series is overestimating the number of deaths by 42 +/- 13 per day since the 23rd May and it needs to be revised otherwise it will create confusion should a second wave come.
Last updated on 25th July 2020 – future updates will be infrequent.
The latest data for deaths due to COVID19 (Coronavirus) in England as of Friday 24th July 2020 show that the first wave of the pandemic is now over when one looks as excess deaths. People will still be dying of COVID19 for weeks yet but the overall number of excess deaths is now negative.
After the two sunniest months on record, the UK weather returned was reassuringly normal and boring in June 2020. [Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #41 – June 2020