England

COVID19 Cases #1 – Latest Data and Trends for England

September 27, 2020 By Nigel

Last updated on 27th September 2020 but downloadable spreadsheet in section 3a was updated on 19th October 2020. I will update the post when I get the time!

The latest data for COVID19 (Coronavirus) cases in England as of Saturday 26th September 2020 shows the number of people testing positive for COVID19 is up 60% from a week ago but this masks extreme regional disparities that make the national trend meaningless. The North is in the grip of a second wave unlike the South which is not. Unless recent trends in the North abate, the scenario of 50k positive tests per day by the end of October recently postulated by the Chief Scientific Officer remains feasible.

COVID19 Deaths #2 – Are Public Health England’s Figures Misleading?

July 25, 2020 By Nigel

During the first wave of the COVID19 epidemic, the daily number of deaths published by Public Health England (PHE) has been the main headline in the news. On 17th July, Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health, called for a review of this time series after a blog published by Yoon Loke & Carl Heneghan of Oxford University questioned whether definition used by this time series was appropriate. I myself had noticed a change in the PHEr time series in my tracker of COVID19 deaths in England but I hadn’t understood why this might have been the case. After looking at the data again in more detail, I have concluded that this time series is overestimating the number of deaths by 42 +/- 13 per day since the 23rd May and it needs to be revised otherwise it will create confusion should a second wave come.

COVID19 Deaths #1 – Latest Data and Trends for England

July 25, 2020 By Nigel

Last updated on 25th July 2020 – future updates will be infrequent.

The latest data for deaths due to COVID19 (Coronavirus) in England as of Friday 24th July 2020 show that the first wave of the pandemic is now over when one looks as excess deaths. People will still be dying of COVID19 for weeks yet but the overall number of excess deaths is now negative.