It was the 8th warmest August on record in the UK. When combined with the 5th warmest July and the 2nd warmest June, the result was the warmest summer on record. Otherwise, the weather on average in the UK continues to be unremarkable in terms of rainfall and sunshine but that disguises some significant regional variations.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #103 – August 2025
UK Weather Tracker #102 – July 2025
It was the 5th warmest July on record in the UK making it also the 5th month in a row where temperatures have exceeded the historical upper decile. The weather in the UK continues to be unremarkable in terms of rainfall and sunshine but we are on track for the warmest summer and year on record.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #102 – July 2025
UK General Elections #9 – The 40-55 Channel
Voting intentions in Britain were remarkably stable for the first half of 2025. The last time the polls were this stable was 10 years ago in the run up to the 2015 General Election.
What’s that I hear you say? Have I not noticed the surge in Reform’s vote share from 20% to 30%? I have but I’m focusing on the 40-55 Channel which has been the defining feature of voting intentions for nearly all of the last 15 years. Everything I see in 2025 tells me the 40-55 Channel will continue to define British politics all the way through to the next election by 2029. Perhaps I better explain what I’m talking about.
[Read more…] about UK General Elections #9 – The 40-55 Channel
UK Weather Tracker #101 – June 2025
June 2025 was the 2nd warmest June on record in the UK, just behind the record set 2 years ago. Otherwise, the weather in the UK was unremarkable.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #101 – June 2025
Pay Gaps #32 – My Response to the Ethnicity & Disability Pay Gap Reporting Consultation
The government’s consultation on whether ethnicity and disability pay gap reporting should be made mandatory for large employers has now closed. I submitted a response in my capacity as a professional statistician with 7 years experience of helping employers to get to grips with pay gap reporting. My response was in two parts, a briefing note of the 9 statistical challenges that have to be confronted for a workable reporting system to be introduced and my answers to the 33 questions posed by the government in their consultation.
** The government published its response to the consultation on 25th March 2026 (link in next section) **
*** This post was updated on 9th June 2025 with links to my final response. Links to my draft response can be found at the end of this post. ***
UK Weather Trends #36 – Spring 2025
Spring 2025 in the UK was both the hottest & sunniest on record as well as the 5th driest. For sunshine, 2025 was even more extraordinary than the exceptionally sunny spring in 2020 and was the result of 3 very sunny months in a row. For temperature, there was no doubt in my mind this time the data was correct unlike last year when I questioned whether spring 2024 was in fact the warmest in record. The Met Office has not corrected the record so apparently it was.
UK Weather Tracker #100 – May 2025
The 2nd sunniest May on record in the UK follows the sunniest ever April & the 3rd sunniest March and resulted in the sunniest spring on record. I am not surprised that in many regions it was also the warmest spring on record.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Tracker #100 – May 2025
Trophy Winners #1 – England Men’s Club Football 1889 to 2025
The 2024/25 football season is over and it is 76 days since my team Newcastle Utd last won a trophy! For the first time in my life, I am able to record Newcastle United in a winners column in my spreadsheet listing all English trophy winners (Men’s) since 1889. For the first time ever, Crystal Palace appear as a trophy winner.
[Read more…] about Trophy Winners #1 – England Men’s Club Football 1889 to 2025
Trophy Winners #2 – England Women’s Club Football 1992 to 2025
The 2024/25 Women’s Super League (WSL) ended with Chelsea winning their 2nd ever Domestic Treble after their 1st in 2021 and Arsenal winning the Champions League for the 2nd time ever after their 1st in 2007.
If you are new to the women’s game in England (especially following the Lionesses winning the European Championship in 2022), why not download my spreadsheet listing all trophy winners since 1992 to find out which teams are the GOATs of English women’s football?
[Read more…] about Trophy Winners #2 – England Women’s Club Football 1992 to 2025
Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?
A good forecaster should always provide an easily accessible list of forecasts made, how the forecast was arrived at and how accurate it ended up being. At long last, here is my election forecasting track record updated with the 2024 UK General Election so finally I am a good forecaster I hope!
[Read more…] about Forecasting #3 – How Accurate are My Election Forecasts?
