trend analysis

COVID19 Cases #1 – Latest Data and Trends for England

September 27, 2020 By Nigel

Last updated on 27th September 2020 but downloadable spreadsheet in section 3a was updated on 19th October 2020. I will update the post when I get the time!

The latest data for COVID19 (Coronavirus) cases in England as of Saturday 26th September 2020 shows the number of people testing positive for COVID19 is up 60% from a week ago but this masks extreme regional disparities that make the national trend meaningless. The North is in the grip of a second wave unlike the South which is not. Unless recent trends in the North abate, the scenario of 50k positive tests per day by the end of October recently postulated by the Chief Scientific Officer remains feasible.

UK Weather Trends #14 – Summer 2020

September 8, 2020 By Nigel

Last year, I predicted that the 2020 summer would not be good and I was right. On average it was duller, wetter and warmer than normal.

COVID19 Deaths #2 – Are Public Health England’s Figures Misleading?

July 25, 2020 By Nigel

During the first wave of the COVID19 epidemic, the daily number of deaths published by Public Health England (PHE) has been the main headline in the news. On 17th July, Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health, called for a review of this time series after a blog published by Yoon Loke & Carl Heneghan of Oxford University questioned whether definition used by this time series was appropriate. I myself had noticed a change in the PHEr time series in my tracker of COVID19 deaths in England but I hadn’t understood why this might have been the case. After looking at the data again in more detail, I have concluded that this time series is overestimating the number of deaths by 42 +/- 13 per day since the 23rd May and it needs to be revised otherwise it will create confusion should a second wave come.

COVID19 Deaths #1 – Latest Data and Trends for England

July 25, 2020 By Nigel

Last updated on 25th July 2020 – future updates will be infrequent.

The latest data for deaths due to COVID19 (Coronavirus) in England as of Friday 24th July 2020 show that the first wave of the pandemic is now over when one looks as excess deaths. People will still be dying of COVID19 for weeks yet but the overall number of excess deaths is now negative.

Pay Gap Trends #3 – Did the UK gender pay gap narrow in 2019?

June 14, 2020 By Nigel

On 24th March 2020, the UK government suspended enforcement of the gender pay gap reporting deadline of 5th April. As of today, just over 50% of employers have reported their 2019 gender pay gap figures. Despite this shortfall, I have used statistical imputation methods to calculate that the median gender pay gap narrowed in 2019 from 9.6 pence in the pound to 9.0-9.2 pence in the pound.

Pay Gap Trends #2 – My analysis of 7 sectors for Practical Law magazine

June 3, 2020 By Nigel

In April, I was asked to analyse the trends in UK gender pay gaps over the 3 years of mandatory reporting from 2017 to 2019 for Practical Law. They were interested in 7 customised sectors and the links to these can be found in this post.

UK Weather Trends #13 – Spring 2020

June 3, 2020 By Nigel

The UK experienced its sunniest spring on record in 2020 by a huge margin. Both April and May were the sunniest on record and together they resulted in an average of 6.5 hours of sunshine per day compared to the normal 4.5 hours per day.

UK Weather Trends #12 – Winter 2020

March 8, 2020 By Nigel

The UK experienced its 5th wettest and warmest winter on record in 2020.

UK Weather Trends #11 – Autumn 2019

December 8, 2019 By Nigel

The UK experienced unremarkable weather in all respects in Autumn 2019.

UK Weather Trends #10 – Summer 2019

September 12, 2019 By Nigel

The 2019 summer was the 7th wettest on record but was also unusually warm given the amount of rain that fell. I have made a prediction that summer 2020 will not be a good one!