An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
Australians will reject the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14th October 2023. My forecast is for NO to win the national vote by 17 percentage points and win the state count 6-0.
This article was first published on 11th October 2023. My forecast then was for NO to win 16 points and the state count 6-0.
[Read more…] about Voice Referendum #1 – My Forecast Explained
The hottest June on record resulted in the 8th warmest summer on record in the UK. However, rain and sunshine levels were normal sowhen looking at the summer using principal components, the 2023 summer was above average but not outstanding.
Spring 2022 was warmer than usual and was mostly typical of the springs that we now get due to our changing climate.
Has 6 years of mandatory gender pay gap reporting (GPGR) made a dent in the UK’s gender pay gap? According to a recent BBC article, not one bit at all. Unfortunately, too many people on social media have been taken in by this misleading article and I will be submitting a formal complaint to the BBC soon to get it amended. I rebutted this at the time with this LinkedIn post and I will now expand on that here to show what the true trend is and whether or not mandatory pay gap reporting has had an impact.
Winter 2023 was the 10th sunniest on record but I doubt we may have noticed. There are indications now that our winters are entering a new era of being warm, wet & sunny.
The 2022 calendar year was the hottest year on record in the UK beating the previous high recorded in 2014. Does that mean that the UK is starting a new warming phase? Using a technique known as a Control Chart, I show the answer is “Not Yet“.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #24 – Annual Temperatures in 2022
The UK autumn in 2022 was the 3rd warmest on record and consistent with the step change in autumnal climate seen 25 years ago.
The 2022 UK summer was the 4th warmest & 9th driest on record. When looked at using principal components, the summer was definitely a good one and showed up yet again my inability to predict good summers!
Spring 2022 was the 5th warmest on record and was mostly typical of the springs that we now get due to our changing climate.
Disinterested employers were 20% less likely than engaged employers to have narrowed their UK gender pay gap between 2017 & 2021 . I draw this conclusion from a statistical model using ~6,000 employers which removed the effect of confounders such as size, sector, furlough, gender ratio, etc. Once accounted for, I found 61% of those reporting their pay gap for 2019 had narrowed their pay gap by 2021 compared to 55% of those not reporting 2019 data.
[Read more…] about Pay Gap Trends #5 – Has pay gap reporting narrowed the gender pay gap?
