An independent statistician using data to understand our world and to predict the future
The 2024 calendar year was the 4th hottest year on record in the UK. Last year, I used a Control Chart to conclude “a step change upwards (in UK temperatures) has taken place but the pace of change is not yet clear“. I am now less confident in my conclusion after updating with 2024 data, especially when I look at temperature trends based on the meteorological year of December to November instead.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #34 – Annual Temperatures in 2024
The gender pay gap in the UK continues to narrow in 2024. The good news is the pay gap is narrowing at a faster rate since 2017 when Gender Pay Gap Reporting (GPGR) for employers become mandatory. The bad news is women are not progressing up the pay scale and are working longer hours, men today are worse off than their fathers were 20 years ago and the smaller pay gap is simply the by-product of wage compression induced by above inflation rises in the minimum wage. This is a sobering picture which tells me on balance, a smaller pay gap is not good news.
This article is part A of a 2-part blog. Part B will be published at a later date.
[Read more…] about Pay Gap Trends #8A – Is a Smaller Pay Gap Good News?
The UK autumn in 2024 was essentially unremarkable and mostly consistent with the step change in autumnal climate seen 25 years ago.
The 2024 meteorological summer in the UK was unremarkable on all weather variables. In fact 2024 was so unremarkable that it is in fact the most “normal” summer of the last 114 years when I compare the data to the last 50 years which I regard as “living memory”.
Spring 2024 in the UK was the hottest on record. In some ways this is surprising given it was also the 10th dullest and 6th wettest spring on record which is inconsistent with trends over last 25 years and with the typical correlations seen in spring. With any other dataset, I would ask for a check on the temperature data to see if it is correct.
Winter 2024 in the UK was the 5th sunniest & 8th wettest on record. A year ago I postulated UK winters were entering a new era of being warm, wet & sunny. I am now certain this is the case and my favoured hypothesis is that our winters are following a steady trend which began in the early 1980s.
The 2023 calendar year was the 2nd hottest year on record in the UK just behind the hottest year ever in 2022. Last year, I showed how a technique known as a Control Chart could be used to decide if the UK is now in a new warming trend and after adding 2023, my answer is now “a step change upwards has taken place but the pace of change is not yet clear“.
[Read more…] about UK Weather Trends #29 – Annual Temperatures in 2023
In November 2023, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) resumed publishing estimates of the UK Ethnicity Pay Gap after a 3 year hiatus for the Covid19 pandemic. I have organised this data into a user-friendly (hopefully!) Microsoft Excel spreadsheet which allows you to see how the median hourly pay has changed between 2012 & 2022 for a variety of ethnicities & other categories. This article explains how you can use this spreadsheet and why you must look at ethnicity pay gap data in a different way than you would for gender pay gap data.
[Read more…] about Pay Gap Trends #7 – UK Ethnicity Pay Gap 2012 to 2022
The UK autumn in 2023 was the 6th warmest on record and consistent with the step change in autumnal climate seen 25 years ago.
Australians rejected the proposed constitutional amendment known as The Voice in a referendum on 14th October 2023. NO won the national vote by 20.1 percentage points and the state count 6-0 but the more important question is was my forecast right?
[Read more…] about Voice Referendum #2 – My Forecast Reviewed
